Next up in our projection series is Daniel Murphy. This may have been our last year with Murphy as a Met but his fans can be comforted that he went out with a bang, having played marvelously down the stretch during the regular season and continuing the strong play through the NLDS and NLCS. Take a minute to review our original projection for Murphy prior to the 2015 season. Here was our group forecast:
PA – 632
AVG – .290
OBP – .330
SLG – .410
HR – 10
RBI – 70
Traded – Yes
Here’s how Murphy actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA – 538
Best – Hangley (590)
Worst – Ferguson (690)
AVG – .281
Best – Walendin (.280)
Worst – Slape (.295)
OBP – .322
Best – Koehler (.325)
Worst – Hangley (.375)
SLG – .449
Best – Walendin (.435)
Worst – Newman (.400)
HR – 14
Best – Walendin (15)
Worst – Hangley (7)
RBIs – 73
Best – Vasile (72)
Worst – Walendin (61)
The group expected Murphy to be dealt during the year, by an 8-5 margin. Instead, he’ll likely leave through free agency, with the Mets getting a compensation pick in return. It would be nice to see him back in blue and orange next season, but the bottom line is that Dilson Herrera is ready to take over and provide similar overall production, if in a different shape, for a fraction of the cost.
Murphy’s .771 OPS in 2015 was his highest since 2011. Interestingly, it came with his lowest AVG since 2009. Murphy displayed more power than he had in recent years, with new hitting coach Kevin Long seemingly working with Murphy on pulling the ball more often.
According to Baseball-Reference, in 2014, Murphy hit the ball to the opposite field 22% of the time and pulled it 23% of the time. This year, those numbers were 16% to the opposite field and 34% pulled. His ISO was .114 in 2014 and .168 this past season.
Neither of the big projection systems saw this shift coming for Murphy. Our .410 SLG forecast was the highest of the three groups. Murphy had been fairly consistent recently and all three systems saw a very similar player. We were oh so slightly more bullish than ZiPS but it was essentially the same projection. Steamer was a tiny bit more bearish overall, projecting Murphy to a .713 OPS compared to the .727 of ZiPS and the .740 of Mets360.
It was a tradeoff well worth making for Murphy. It will be curious to see if he continues to drive the ball next year with his new team or if he’ll be content to flick the ball to the opposite field more often going forward.
When David Wright goes down, we are going to miss Daniel Murphy.
I can’t imagine that the money for Zobrist will be much different. Zobrist has very little experience at 3B. I will be surprised if the Mets pay up for either.
Big decisions here. I feel uneasy about it all.
Dont worry James, Murphy is a terrible third baseman. Id sign Uribe for the year, or get a first baseman’s mitt for Wright and trade for Frazier.
My opinion is that we haven’t seen enough of Murphy at 3B to say with any certainty one way or the other if he’d be good there over a full season.
FWIW – In 713.2 career innings at 3B, Murphy has a 0 plus/minus rating and a 0 UZR — meaning he’s been exactly league average.
In FanGraph’s Inside Edge fielding data, here’s how he breaks down over the past two seasons at the hot corner:
Routine Plays (90-100%) — 94.4%
Likely (60-90%) — 73.7%
Even (40-60%) — 53.3%
Unlikely (10-40%) — 0%
Remote (1-10%) — 0%
He’s had 39 plays in those bottom two categories and hasn’t made one of them. But in the others, he’s performed pretty much average. Seems like the textbook definition of a guy you can put out there who won’t embarrass you.
I’ll say this, I wouldnt want 4 months of him at 3B. His footwork is painfully slow, forcing him to double and triple pump before he throws, and that distance is too far. Sure, you could put him there, but he would never be the answer.
The Mets 3B is David Wright, at least for now, so the appeal of Murphy is not that he’d become the next 3B, it’s that he can fill in at the position and probably be an overall upgrade over Wright.
Last season, the Mets had Eric Campbell start around 50 games.
Im with ya James, just that DW could be out for many months again. I actually expect it. As a result, Id like a real third baseman there, like Todd Frazier.
It’s hard to see him go… but not really. He was never really that good to begin with, he just had an ability to perform for remarkable and memorable stretches- especially in the clutch. Plus, Herrera is probably going to replace his raw offensive production.
It’s not out of the question to see Herrera put up a .285/.335/.425 slash line with 10-15 home runs. To make things better, Herrera seems to be an average defensive second baseman- which is already heads an shoulders better than Murph.
Does Herrera hit a home run in six straight postseason game? Almost certainly not.
Would Herrera have sneaked third base in Game 5 of the NLDS? Hell no.
You know what Herrera will do? Not make us hold our breath when a ball is hit to the right side.
In all honesty, I’d like the Mets to try and see if Herrera can play at shortstop and move Flores back over to second base…. but it’s all a pipe dream.
I think that is entirely too bullish on Herrera. Can he do it? Maaaaaybe. Should we expect that, or even something close in his rookie year? Absolutely not.
FWIW Baseball-Reference now carries Marcel projections and their slash line for Herrera in 2016 in the majors is .248/.326/.409
On FanGraphs, Steamer has a .258/.311/.399 forecast
My original projection post:
I hope he is not traded during the season because that would mean October baseball in New York!
Thank you Daniel Murphy for a career year and giving us November baseball in New York!
+1
This morning’s Zobrist news — that he’s too expensive — is fairly humorous. His asking price hasn’t changed. I really hope we don’t have to read another winter’s worth of articles about “Sandy misreading the market.”
I have never understood why he was a target, given his age. I think he’s a terrific player, but the Mets don’t need his help in the OF corners. No one seems to think he can play SS for any amount of time. He’s basically inexperienced at 3B. And he’s going to want a 3-4 year contract. Dude is a 2B.
Actually — I’ll try to keep this very short — I’ve come to the painful conclusion that the best approach for these Mets, with these owners, is to do very little this winter. The big names are too expensive, just won’t happen (Heyward, Cespedes). Going toe-to-toe to outspend rivals for only “good” players is probably not a great strategy, though they do desperately need another quality reliever. I see the Mets going with a Uribe-type, maybe Reynolds at utility, possibly Parra as 4th OF, and like I said, some kind of good arm for the pen (that’s where I’d spend).
Overall, that’s pretty disappointing, but outside of Cespedes, there are no great fits out there. Yoenis did enough to make most observers wary of a big, 6-year deal. I’d love a real SS, but that falls under the “trade” category, and I’m not ready to flip Matz just yet. I believe that trading Wheeler right now would be selling extremely low. The timing is off. Get him back on the mound, healthy, hitting 95 MPH, and that will be a difference. Let Matz get another 15 starts under his belt, and his value will be double. Wait another year and maybe the Mets move Harvey.
Right now, this winter, I’m not seeing a lot of great opportunities there. I believe that Sandy will be “patient,” and hobble into 2016 with the hope that the cobbled-together club can play well enough, be on track for a 90-win season, and then address needs come July when the club gains both clarity and their pitching chips appreciate.
My conclusion, again, is that the time is not now. The best thing Sandy can do is to build a bench to ensure the Mets that we won’t ever have to watch the likes of Eric Campbell play ever again. That sh** has to stop.
Excellent observations, James.
In general, Im pretty much in agreement. Small important peices, but I see Zobrist as pretty viable. As far as the FA market goes, Id like to see some genuine help in the relievers, like O’Day or Soria.Otherwise its a shake up. Trade Duda and prospects for….trade Flores…etc