Mets360 free agent prediction thread

30 comments on “Mets360 free agent prediction thread”

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  NormE On November 26, 2015 at 1:20 pm

  Scott and Matt generally have the deepest pocketbooks, while James usually seems to be the most conservative. It’s always fun to spend other people’s money. Happy Thanksgiving to y’all.

  Scott and Rob: 9 years to Jason Heyward—-wow!
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    Scott Ferguson On November 26, 2015 at 4:32 pm

    He’s 26. I could see someone locking him up until 35 and he could actually hold out for that contract
    • 

      Rob Rogan On November 26, 2015 at 5:57 pm

      Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if someone ended up giving him a full 10 years.
      • 

        norme On November 26, 2015 at 10:57 pm

        I might be persuaded to go along with Scott and Rob, because I love to watch Jason Heyward in the field. But, if the 9 or 10 year contract is back-loaded I think that would be a terrible mistake.
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  TexasGusCC On November 26, 2015 at 2:08 pm

  The Dodgers, Angels and Nationals will all bid pretty high for Murphy and Zobrist for varying reasons, while Kendrick will sign last. Wouldn’t be surprised if Murphy gets the most years due to his youngest age while Kendrick as a righty isn’t a good fit in Washington, and has been a former Angel and Dodger. The wildcard is the Cardinals who are after Zobrist due to his high OBP and ability to play RF.

  Don’t see the Mets signing any of these guys unless it’s a “Chris Young-like” contract like Mike Koehler predicts for Span. That would be hysterical.

  The Yankees most need Chris Davis, especially if they package Texierra and his one year left and they need Daniel Murphy. However, their vault is closed this year.
  • 

    Mike Koehler On November 27, 2015 at 12:43 am

    Considering Span, at age 31, missed more than half the season while he was making $9 million, I wouldn’t feel comfortable handing out a major contract. Give him a short, show-me contract at $7 million to prove he can play at a high level and earn an expensive, long-term contract next year.
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  Brian Joura On November 26, 2015 at 2:37 pm

  I like how James has the Mets getting Zobrist and the Royals getting Murphy.
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  Matty Mets On November 26, 2015 at 4:50 pm

  If Daniel Murphy ever checks Mets360 he must be lickin his chops. Wherever he winds up he’s going to be a very rich man.
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  James Preller On November 26, 2015 at 8:55 pm

  My hope is that Sandy Alderson surprises me, because every tea leaf I read leads to disappointment.
  • 

    Mike Koehler On November 27, 2015 at 12:44 am

    I think the top item on my Mets Christmas wish list would be a long-term deal for Jason Heyward. This guy probably has the chops to slide into CF and is just an all-around solid player worthy of big bucks for years to come. Too bad team ownership won’t shell out the coin for him.
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  Name On November 29, 2015 at 1:39 pm

  Reports are that Zimmerman to the Tigers for 5 years 110 mil. Looks like he opted for AAV over years, which is surprising. I guess he thinks he can still make 15+ per year after this deal is up.

  No one got the team right, but the big winner is Parker who nailed the terms! Joura and Waledin round out the top 3.

  The bottom 3 are between Ferguson, who had an outrageous AAV and overshot by 2 years, Kolton, who overshot by 3 years, and Koehler, who had the biggest AAV gap.
  I will annoint Ferguson the big loser because had the years been 6 or 7, the AAV would have been even lower and closer to Koehler’s than Ferguson’s.
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  Name On December 1, 2015 at 8:16 pm

  Price to the Red Sox for an absurd 7 years 217 million. Wowza. Congratz to Ferguson and Parker for choosing the right team.

  Rogan is the winner this time who guessed 7 years 210 mil. #2 and #3 are probably Ferguson, who nearly got the AAV right (but had an extra year) and Joura.

  Parker is easily the big loser this time, who was off by almost a half. Hard to choose 2 others to join him on the bottom, but it would probably be Newman and McCarthy, whose AAV were both under 26 mil.
  • 

    Chris Walendin On December 2, 2015 at 10:37 am

    I had Price to the Red Sox too, FWIW, for 8/225.
    • 

      Name On December 4, 2015 at 9:20 pm

      Yes you did. My apologies for missing that.
      • 

        Chris Walendin On December 7, 2015 at 1:15 pm

        No worries. Figure it’ll probably be the last one I’m close on, so I couldn’t resist chiming in. Haha.
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  Rob Rogan On December 4, 2015 at 8:09 pm

  Greinke to D-Backs. This FA is bonkers.
  • 

    Name On December 4, 2015 at 9:33 pm

    And for 6/206. I bet up to half of that is deferred. Even if it is, it’s still a stupid deal and I can’t wait to root for him to fail. Now onto the winners and losers.

    Because of deferred money, no one even came close to the AAV. The person who had the best out of all the wrong answers was Scott Feguson was Scott Ferguson, who overshot by a year but had a 30 mil AAV and 200+ million total value. And it’s like picking sticks for #2 and #3 so i won’t do it.

    Loser is probably Mike Koehler, whose AAV of 23 mil was the lowest. Again, very hard to pick 2 others to join him, so i’ll just leave it at that.

    Wow. Probably gonna hear a lot more of that this offseason with a bunch of more ridiculous contracts.
    • 

      Metsense On December 4, 2015 at 11:49 pm

      The contracts are ridiculous but the teams can afford them and still make a profit. It is therefore ridiculous that the Mets in a large market can’t compete with the signings of Greinke and Price. It does not bode well for the Mets as their star pitchers will be asking for these type of contracts in the future. The Mets are severely financially handicapped. Right now the Mets are unable to sign or afford a Cespedes or Heyward, either one would improve the offense for at least the next three years. Teams with money are willing to risk the results of years 4-6.
      • 

        Chris F On December 5, 2015 at 9:23 am

        The financial situation years post Madoff still shows little signs of stabilization. The Wilpon debt load remains so high that that even at a time with the game bursting at the seams with cash, and perhaps the best pitching staff in the game, and the best chance to win a WS in the next 3 years, the team will be crippled enough so we cannot compete for a single top FA to address the matters in need. Instead, Alsderson will have to be content to sit on his hands, hope the team is somewhere near .500 and try to get a pick up after the ASG. It is worth keeping in mind that the farm system is not chuck full by any means and that our top prospects (Matz aside) barely register league wide. Our time is now, and failing to capitalize on the fierce urgency of now will put us out of the playoffs for years to come. Our Fab Four starters will command 1B$ collectively when they hit free agency…so enjoy them now!
        • 

          Name On December 5, 2015 at 4:06 pm

          “Our Fab Four starters will command 1B$ collectively when they hit free agency…so enjoy them now!”

          I don’t get why people are so paranoid that about our starters leaving for FA because they’re not even close to imminent.

          Steven Matz and Noah Syndeergaard are scheduled to become free agents in 2022… the same year Zack Greinke will become a FA once again. Is any D-back fan worried about the “impending” loss of Greinke?
          deGrom will be a FA a year before, and entering FA at age 34. I honestly don’t think he’ll even get a $100 mi contract at that point.
          The only guy who will become a FA before Trump tries for a second term in 2020 (haha just kidding), will be Matt Harvey.

          That’s an eternity. So there’s no need to fret over this issue.

          On an unrelated note, Pelfrey gets 2 years $16 million!!!! Wtf. At the very least proves that Niese must have decent value on the trade market with his 1 year 9 mil contract + 2 options.
          • 

            Brian Joura On December 5, 2015 at 4:23 pm

            Well, a sincere thank you for pointing out that there’s not any reason to fret.

            Met fans need to collectively take an Ambien or something. We just came off a season where we lost the vast majority of our bullpen, our starters needed to be managed innings-wise, our big free agent pickup didn’t hit, our Gold Glove CF got benched, our C and 3B spent 2/3 of the year on the DL, nobody we called up from the minors hit before August, the agent of our star pitcher tried to sabotage our season and we still made it to the World Series.

            Everything doesn’t have to be perfect 100% of the time.
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  Name On December 5, 2015 at 4:38 pm

  And we now have a new winner for the dumbest FA contract this winter.

  Jeff Samardzjia, career 4.09 ERA (96 ERA+ or about the same as Jon Niese) , 4.14 ERA as a starter, just got a 5 year 90 million deal from the Giants.

  Rogan nearly had it 100% all around, pegging him at 5/85 and to the Giants The next 2 closest wereNetter, who nearly got the AAV, and Ferguson.

  The farthest off was Newman, who only missed by 4 years and 82 million… 🙂 The other 2 joining him in the same department are Waledin and McCarthy.

  I wonder where on the worst deals list this will rank in Giants history. Worse than Zito? Probably not. But should be worse than Lincecum.
  • 

    Chris Walendin On December 7, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    Yup, that one was a big whiff for me. Figured one of the QO guys would get boxed out from the truly obscene money & wind up taking a 1-year deal to rebuild value & try again next year. Samardzija seemed like the best bet. Oh well, good for Jeff & his family.
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  Name On December 9, 2015 at 5:24 pm

  Zobrist heads to the Cubs to reunite with his former manager at 4 years and 56 million. This one was expected to be an easy guess, Most reports had him choosing between the Nats and Mets, and everyone had a tight cluster for the dollar amounts, and while the dollar amount was just as expected, he surprised everyone by choosing a different team.

  Koehler hit the nail on the head at 4/56. And to show how little spread there was in the money part, 4 other people guessed 4/60.

  Farthest off the mark would be Newman, who had the lowest AAV at 12. Joining him are the other 2 people who guessed 3 years: Kolten and Parker, who both also had the highest AAV.
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  Name On December 11, 2015 at 7:29 pm

  Well, this one kind of surprised me. Heyward only get 8 years and 184 million. I guess the player options really cost him quite a bundle or front offices in MLB baseball don’t value WAR that highly. Personally, i thought he would approach 300 million in this crazy inflated market this year and at under 200 mil, he looks like a bargain (although the player options kind of muddle the situation)

  Congratz to Joura for coming the closest at 8 years and 180 mil. Waledin and Koehler are a close 2nd and 3rd.

  Parker gets a big fat F on this one as he didn’t even predict 100 mil, Kolten and McCarthy also get lumped into losers with their predicted 6 year deals.
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  Name On December 16, 2015 at 6:32 pm

  I’m a bit late, but Cueto to the Giants for 6/130. He obviously wasn’t happy with the deal as he has an opt out after year 2.

  No one was really that close but the top 3 were McCarthy, Rogan and Waldein.

  Feguson was the worst, followed by Parker and Joura
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  Name On January 6, 2016 at 9:50 pm

  Winners for Daniel Murphy were Newman, Koehler, and Rogan, but nearly everyone got the AAV right, except for Ferguson who was the big and only loser.

  Doug Parker gets the big gold star for Alex Gordon, who got the team and years right and was off by only 2 mil. Joining him are McCarthy and Kolton.

  Newman and Koehler were the farthest, and there was a 3-way tie for the 3rd to last spot.
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  Name On January 7, 2016 at 7:02 pm

  Denard Span 3/31 to the Giants.

  Newman and McCarthy are 1 and 2 who were only off by a few mil. There is a tie for the 3rd spot

  Koehler thought he would have to take a 1 yr rebuilding contract and busted way too low and Parker thought the Mets were going to get an unexpected inheritance and busted way too high.
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  Name On January 16, 2016 at 1:07 pm

  After a long hiatus, the madness resumes.

  The Orioles bid against themselves and paid 7 years and 161 million. Why they did it is beyond me. Who elese needed a 1b this offseason? Would another team really trust him as an OFer? Like most of the people here, i couldn’t see another team offering him 100 mil. But whatever, they’ll pay for this mistake for 7 years.

  Feguson’s high spending ways pay off and he wins this one.
  Losers be Waldein, Joura, and Newman.

  On a side note that likely none of us saw, Ian kennedy signed for 5/70…. with the cost conscious Royals…. What the h….?
  He didn’t even make it to this prediction thread and get 70 mil? His overall effectiveness is meh, probably not much better than Niese. But he is durable and has a high K-rate. But no way is he worth that much.
• 

  Name On February 29, 2016 at 1:49 am

  Just to complete what i’ve started, the last 2 one the list have officially signed.

  Gallardo goes to the O’s on a 2/22 deal. As with many O’s signing, there’s usually some sort of complication on the medicals and this time it cost Gallardo a guaranteed year.
  Waledin was the closest and Netter was the furthest.

  Only one writer was able to forsee Desmond having to beg a team to let him play this year and that was Mr Joura! Although instead of crawling back to the Nats he had to go to the Rangers instead… to “audition”/test drive LF…Ferguson’s go big or go home stance cost him again as he comes in tied for dead last with Netter.

  If i have some time i might do a tally of the combined salaries to see who got the closest.