There’s always speculation this time of year about what free agents the Mets might sign and what trades we might make. But this year the hot stove is really boiling over. Playing in the World Series and then having arguably your two best hitters hit free agency will do that. Adding to the intrigue is that GM Sandy Alderson’s phone is ringing off the hook with rival GMs inquiring about the availability of our young pitchers who were on full display in the playoffs.
Alderson plays his cards close to the vest, but he’s obviously not going to sit on his hands this winter, not with some of the obvious needs the Mets have as we look forward to 2016. Is he targeting certain players or is he looking at positions to upgrade? Here are some likely possibilities.
Plan A: Shortstop
Net Effect: DFA Ruben Tejada to shave some payroll. Make Wilmer Flores a super utility player who sees time at third base, shortstop, second and pinch hitting. If David Wright needs time off or Dilson Herrera struggles, he’s a great fallback option. A good shortstop shores up the infield defense and lengthens the bench.
Free agent options: Ian Desmond, Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew
Via trade: Erik Aybar, Jose Reyes, Jean Segura, Zack Cozart
Alternative: Stick with Flores. Get a cheap veteran backup with a good glove to serve as a defensive replacement.
The smart play: Aybar. He’a a defensive upgrade and can bat leadoff and allow us to move Curtis Granderson down in the lineup.
Plan B: A versatile bat
Net effect: replace Daniel Murphy‘s bat.
Free agent options: Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist
Via trade: Martin Prado
Alternative: see Plan A
The smart play: Zobrist, if he can be had for three years. A switch hitting contact hitter who can play five positions. He gives us a lot of flexibility. If not, see Plan A.
Plan C: Center fielder
Net effect: Either a lefty to platoon with Juan Lagares or an everyday center fielder to push Lagares to rotating fourth outfielder.
Free agent options: Dexter Fowler, Denard Span, Austin Jackson, Rajai Davis, Gerardo Parra
Via trade: Charlie Blackmon, Michael Bourn, Brett Gardner, Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Alternative: Hold steady with Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Darrel Ceciliani and Michael Cuddyer filling in until Brandon Nimmo is ready.
The smart play: If we follow plan A, Parra. If we follow plan B, Denard Span.
Plan D: A top notch set up man with closing experience
The net effect: A reliable bridge to Jeurys Familia who can close when needed.
Free agent options: Darren O’Day, Tyler Clippard, Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney, Joe Nathan, Jason Motte
Via trade: Adam Ottavino, Will Smith, Brad Ziegler, Jason Grilli, Jake McGee, Edward Mujica, Kevin Quackenbush, Ken Giles
Alternative: Bartolo Colon?
The smart play: We shouldn’t overspend here. O’Day or Soria would be great but a big three or four-year deal for a setup man is tough to swallow. There are bigger needs elsewhere and a lot of internal options. Plenty of options via trade.
Plan E: The big bat
The net effect: As we learned with the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes, a stud cleanup hitter can transform a lineup.
Free agent options: Cespedes, Justin Upton, Chris Davis
Via trade: Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez
Alternative 1: Trade Lucas Duda and more for a heavy hitter with an albatross contract – Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols – plus a lot of cash to offset the monster salary.
Alternative 2: Hold steady for now and wait until July.
The smart play: See if Cespedes or Upton can be had on a four year deal. Doesn’t hurt to try. Assuming no, wait until July and see if we need a rental. Maybe Wright is healthy and playing like a #3 hitter again.
You had me at “trade Lucas Duda.”
Seriously though, I think the way to work this is to focus on replacing Cespedes’ and Murphy’s production first, then worry about position fit. That’s why I love the idea of Zobrist, even at 4 years.
(I’ll say it again – there’s no salary cap and ticket prices are not going down. If the Wilpons are unwilling to spend to get a WS runner-up over the hump, sell the damn team.)
Zobrist can fill in for the inevitable Wright injury, platoon at second with Herrera, or fill in at one of the OF spots. Or, if Herrera totally craps the bed, take over as full-time starting 2B.
Unfortunately there’s no easy answer for replacing Cespedes’ production. All of the options require some element of “hold your nose, hope it results in a WS title and deal with the negatives.” Which is why lately I’ve been thinking the safest bet is the OF still young enough to be in his prime – Jason Heyward. He’s not a perfect positional fit and he doesn’t replace the power numbers, but he may present the least amount of risk.
Two things:
On August 1st, Cespedes came over and gave some great production, but he was teamed up with a retiring Wright and TdA, and an acquired Uribe and Johnson. Especially with Murphy heating up in September, Cespedes looks like Superman, but he wasn’t.
Also, this brings to mind the movie Moneyball; in the movie, Beane had to replace Jason Giambi – just as big a shoe if not bigger than Cespedes. You don’t replace Cespedes with one player, you replace him with the best if two different players, i.e.: Lagares and Parra. You let Parra lead off and drop Granderson down.
Great points, Bk and TexasGus. I love the idea of getting a legit leadoff hitter so we can drop Grandy to the middle of the order. But who hits between him and Duda? Wright, even if healthy is not a cleanup hitter.
Well, he isn’t if you need 30 HRs from your cleanup hitter. But, if he gives 35 2B, 18 HR, and a .300 average he’s better than a .270/30 HR guy, to me. Between Duda, d’Arnaud, Conforto, Granny, and Flores, the Mets have enough 18-22 HR power to not need a huge bat, and I prefer the productive hitter to one that swings for the fences on every pitch, ahem, Yoenis.
This is precisely the hitter Murphy is, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a nice five year $80MM deal, despite the inconsistent glove.
TexasGus, you and I are on the same page. I’ve always said I’d rather have a doubles hitter who doesn’t strikeout a lot over a Chris Davis type. The former might not be on Sports Center as often but he’ll come cheaper and won’t kill as many rallies.
Denard Span for CF and his bat would replace Murphy’s lost OPS. Tony Sipps for setup man. Kelly Johnson as back up with Flores.
None of the suggested shortstops are appealing. A shortstop upgrade is necessary but it is going to cost a pitcher and Sandy doesn’t want to pay that price. I would be surprised if Sandy has a shortstop up his sleeve this winter.
No reason to take granderson out of the leadoff spot.
Realistically 3/4 of the Mets infield needs to be rebuilt as Duda and Flores are second division players at best. And the 1/4 remaining part needs to move. David Wright needs to realize that his back is not going to let him play out his contract. David needs to become Duda’s replacement at first with the understanding that Duda is far too inconsistent to be a key member of a championship team. With that move do the Mets trade Wheeler for either Baez from the Cubs to play short or Todd Frazier at third? Either should be that 20+ HR bat needed. If they go with Baez then maybe Uribe and Kelly Johnson can anchor the infield for a year. There are a few possibilities mentioned already for the outfield and certainly one of them can do the job.
Trade Duda. Bring back Murph to sure up the corners. Have Cuddyer play some first base. Sign Desmond to play short.
Sandy has a plan for sure, but it won’t be moving Flores off SS and not giving Herrera a shot a 2b (unless J. Profar from the Rangers is available ) Flores and Herrera is an inexpensive and potentially very productive middle infield.
Keep KJ as backup, perhaps Matt Reynolds as backup SS.
Murphy is gone, but not so sure about Cespedes.
Reason is if no one blows the doors of RocNation with a $125m- $150m offer, the Mets could swoop in,maybe 4 yrs $90m deal w/ 5th yr option total $100m ?
Cespedes is in rock solid shape, works out like a maniac.
See him in YouTube… Years 30-35 will be no more riskier than anyone else not a pitcher.
The loss of Murphy offense will be hopefully offset by full years (miracles of miracles) of Duda, d’Arnaud, Conforto, and at least 125 games from Wright.
BP is key to reinforce. Clippard is not the answer and you surely cannot count on Mejia. Blevins, Edgin must return to form. Add another like Madson or Soria.
O’Day would be great, but doubt Wilpons would spend more after Cespedes.
Starters ? With the addition of Wheeler later in the year, Mets already may have the best staff / deepest staff in the NL.
Sandy gets busy in December & January, and Mets roll into Spring Training in late Feb. Can’t wait.