This is the second entry in our prospect series, where we’re counting down the top 50 prospects for the Mets. Four people were involved in this project and what you see is a group consensus, not the results of one person. You can view 50-47 if you have not already seen it. Here are the next four:
46. Jacob Lugo – Sometimes you’ll see him referred to as “Jacob” but most times as “Seth” – his middle name. Either way, Lugo was a 34th-round pick from a school going to Division III. He missed the 2012 season with a back injury that required surgery. So, he’s an older prospect who doesn’t wow you with his ERA but he has solid peripherals, he made it to Triple-A last year and pitched well in a brief stint and he capped his year by being added to the 40-man roster. After spending most of 2014 in the bullpen, Lugo was exclusively a starter this past year, where he had a 3.41 FIP in Binghamton and a 3.60 FIP in Las Vegas, thanks to allowing just 5 BB and 3 HR in 27 IP in the Pacific Coast League.
45. Jeff Walters – Another older pitching prospect added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Walters rebounded from an injury-plagued 2014 to once again figure into the club’s future plans. Interestingly, Walters was drafted three times before finally signing with the Mets in 2010, the same draft that produced Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. He’s the classic case of a guy who moved to the pen, added velocity and found success. By 2013, he worked his way to closer at Double-A, where he had a 2.09 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP and 38 Saves. The following year he was not enjoying the same success and while some might have thought it was Las Vegas trouble, instead it turned out to be a torn UCL, which required surgery. He returned to the mound this past season a year and five days after undergoing the knife and pitched at three levels in 2015. In 18.1 IP at Double-A, he had 21 Ks, a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP.
44. Jimmy Duff – It’s a lot of projection to put a guy who hasn’t reached Double-A and has been almost exclusively a reliever (1 start in 60 games) in the minors on the list but there’s a lot to like about Duff. First, he’s 6’6, second, he’s got outstanding control and third he’s very stingy with the long ball. A 20th-round pick in 2014 from Division II, Duff has pitched two years in the organization and in 94.1 IP, he’s allowed just 16 BB and 3 HR. In 2015, he split time between Lo-A and Hi-A and pitched better at the higher level. At St. Lucie, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 0.911 WHIP in 18.2 IP. While Walters and Lugo have had success at higher levels, Duff is several years younger. He turned 22 in November, compared to the 26 that Lugo and 28 that Walters turned in the same month.
43. Kevin Kaczmarski – Perhaps no one from the 2015 Draft had a better debut season for the Mets than Kaczmarski. A ninth-round pick from the University of Evansville, Kaczmarski ripped through the Appalachian League, posting a .355/.415/.512 line in 284 PA. You’ll see Kaczmarksi ranked higher on just about every other top 50 list you’ll see. What holds him down here is that he was 23 years old and put up his line with a .395 BABIP. It was a great season by an older guy having very good fortune on balls in play. Kaczmarski will have to prove he can hit well at a more advanced level to convince us. It will be interesting to see where he opens up in 2016. Will the Mets send him to St. Lucie, the same level they put 2014 first-round pick Michael Conforto this past season? Or will they be more cautious and send him to Lo-A? At his advanced prospect age, he simply cannot play another year of short-season ball.
I know it’s high up on the list, but none of these guys seem to be any major help for the team in the present or future.
Jeff Walters could be a nice late bloomer for possible set-up relief, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on Jimmy Duff.
Also, you nailed it on Kevin Kaczmarski. I see Kirk Nieuwenhuis written all over him. The only difference? Nieuwenhuis has proven he can hit sometimes.
My guess is that you can count the number of times in team history where the team had 50 players in the farm system who went on to make the majors, even for just one game, on the fingers of one hand. To expect “major help” from guys in the 40s is unrealistic.
In the last two years, the system has graduated Jacob deGrom, Noah Synderaard, Rafael Montero, Jeurys Familia, Hansel Robles, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki, Dilson Herrera, Wilmer Flores and Michael Conforto. That’s a tremendous amount of talent. That combined with all of the prospects that were traded in 2015 has really put a dent in the system. If one among Lugo, Walters and Duff ends up with a multi-year career in the majors, that will be a win.
Not a comment on these four guys at all, but overall I am just so unimpressed by the mediocre job SA did with the farm system. For five years it was the area of greatest focus, after the myth of inheriting a “barren” system. The pure draft and development is not there. Average, at best.
Back in 2010, I did a mini-study on farm system production. I took the six-year period from 1998-2003 and compared the output of the four non-Mets NL East teams, along with the Angels and Yankees.
“Our six teams signed 158 draft picks (to) reach the majors and 27 of those had a career bWAR of 5.0 or greater by the end of the 2010 season. That averages out to 26.3 players to reach the majors and 4.5 impact players per team. It’s certainly possible that a few more players might reach the majors for a cup of coffee and quite likely that some more will surpass 5.0 bWAR before their career is over. So, we can ballpark it that an average team should send 27 draft picks to the majors in a six-year span and that 6 of those should total 5.0 bWAR before their career is done.”
Obviously, it’s too soon to pass judgment on Alderson’s draft. But at least this gives us a baseline for comparison.