Mets360 2015 projection review: Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom had a wonderful, seemingly out-of-nowhere season in 2014, one that earned him Rookie of the Year honors.  He finished the year with a tremendous kick, prompting some to consider him the team’s ace.  Still, given that he was not highly-touted coming into the year, some thought he was due for some regression.  With that in mind, check in on our original piece to see what we thought coming into the year.  Here was our group forecast:

IP – 179.1
ERA – 3.07
Ks – 172
BB – 53
HR – 10
FIP – 2.89
LD% – 22.4

Here’s how deGrom actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

IP – 191
Best – Ferguson, Hangley (190)
Worst – Kolton (136.1)

ERA – 2.54
Best – Joura (2.30)
Worst – Kolton (3.70)

Ks – 205
Best – Rogan (202)
Worst – Kolton (124)

BB – 38
Best – Vasile (43)
Worst – Rogan (63)

HR – 16
Best – Ferguson (15)
Worst – Slape (6)

FIP – 2.70
Best – Walendin (2.60)
Worst – Kolton (3.65)

LD% – 20.9
Best – Slape (20.4)
Worst – Kolton (25.8)

We predicted a pretty strong year for deGrom and he ended up being even better than that.  Our forecast was noticeably more optimistic than those of the big boys and this is one where we were better than the experts.  Individually, we had some terrific predictions.  Overall, this is one that I’m particularly proud of our group for producing.

deGrom had some struggles late in the year and there was speculation that he was wearing down.  That tiny bit of worry might be the only thing keeping people from being even more enthusiastic about deGrom when we make 2016 predictions.

Matt Harvey might be traded while Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard will face the same doubts that deGrom faced coming into 2015.  There’s going to be a lot expected from deGrom next season, especially if the club doesn’t bring in any replacements/reinforcements for the departing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy.  Here’s hoping he’s up to it.