Last offseason, all we heard was how Jon Niese was damaged goods, that he had no trade value and that he would wind up on the disabled list sooner rather than later. Niese stayed off the DL but his season was uneven at best and by the end of the year he was relegated to the bullpen for the playoffs. With that in mind, check in on our original piece to see what we thought coming into the year. Here was our group forecast:
IP – 170.2
ERA – 3.45
Ks – 125
BB – 43
HR – 15
FIP – 3.63
GB% – 48.5
Here’s how Niese actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
IP – 176.2
Best – Singer (175.2)
Worst – McCarthy (211)
ERA – 4.13
Best – Koehler (3.79)
Worst – Hangley (2.96)
Ks – 113
Best – Koehler (112)
Worst – Netter (37)
BB – 55
Best – McCarthy (56)
Worst – Netter (32)
HR – 20
Best – Albanesius (19)
Worst – Hangley (9)
FIP – 4.41
Best – Koehler (3.85)
Worst – Netter (6.27)
GB% – 54.5
Best – Newman (52.0)
Worst – Netter (46.0)
It was a hit-and-miss projection for us. We did a fine job on his IP, Ks and BB but missed badly on his ERA, FIP and GB%. In hindsight, it wasn’t realistic to expect us to forecast a career-best mark on grounders but we were without a doubt optimistic on his ERA and FIP. Both Steamer and ZiPS did a better job of forecasting Niese’s year than we did. We did much better on individual forecasts but still not a great one in either ERA or FIP.
Interestingly, Niese might have more of a trade market coming off his worse 2015 season than he did this time in 2014. He showed the ability to stay healthy and perhaps added to his desirability by pitching effectively out of the bullpen. But with Dillon Gee gone, Zack Wheeler out half the year, Rafael Montero a question mark and Bartolo Colon in limbo, it’s doubtful that the Mets would even consider trading Niese at this point in time.
Still, Niese won’t be any easier to project this coming season. Everyone expects him to ultimately yield his spot in the rotation to Wheeler when the young fireballer is ready to return. And even if we knew how many innings to put him down far, the quality of those innings is still very much in the air. In his first 18 starts of 2015, Niese had a 3.36 ERA in 112.1 IP. That’s essentially what we expected him to do. But in his final 11 starts, Niese had a 5.64 ERA in 60.2 IP before moving to the pen for his final four appearances, where he allowed 1 ER in 3.2 IP.
Why did you partition in after 18 games? Through 23 starts, he had a 3.50 ERA. In his last 6 he had a 7.11 ERA
I think the fact that he is more trade-able is more due the fact that SPs are insanely expensive this year. A soon to be 32 yr old Mike Pelfrey (in a good year), averaged about 5.1 innings per start, is able to get 2 years and 16 million. That makes a 3 year younger Niese and his 1 year 10 mil plus 2 options a bargain.
Another comparison is to look at Price and Scherzer. Last year the top FA was Scherzer, and the NPV of his contract was ~170 million. One year later, Price is able to get over 40 million more than him.
This is not the year to be spending on pitchers because you are not going to get bargains. If i were a GM, i’d focus on getting hitters this year.
Because after 18 he had his lowest ERA.
Edit: misread what you said
I would still move Niese. As Name says at 9 million+ he’s very affordable. If you feel that the Met’s will need a starter why not bring Colon back for 1 season at 2-3 million? I’m sure with so many SP’s still unsigned he may elect to take less and have the opportunity to pitch in meaningful games and in the post season. Maybe a Christmas wish and throw in Cuddyer as well. use the 15 million or so in savings and sign either a SS or CF. I know it’s never going to happen.
If you would prefer Colon at $3 million to Niese at $9 million — why wouldn’t mystery team X feel the same way? Especially with having to give up something to get Niese, too.
You would have to go out and sign Colon now. He can pitch better out of the pen and would provide insurance if Wheeler has any setbacks.I think teams may be reluctant to sign a 42? year old as opposed to giving a chance to their own prospect. Do the met’s have anyone in Las Vegas who can spot start before Wheeler comes back? I know Montero is still not 100%. I was trying to trim the payroll so the team could invest in an upgrade at SS or CF
Niese faded at the end and that is not a good sign. Of the 80 National League starters that threw at least 70 innings Niese was ranked 48th in ERA and 54th in FIP. That would make him a 4th starter on most staffs at a very reasonable $10M. The Mets only want him to be a 5th starter. His decline at the end of the season is troublesome and with Wheeler on the horizon and Montero, Verrett, or Gilmartin as possible replacements then the Mets should look to package him in trade for an upgrade at SS or CF.
Just saw this on MLBTR:
“Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reported this week that the team would prefer to add a lefty, although one option could be using lefty reliever Brian Matusz as a starter. “We’d be OK with five righties, but ideally we’d like to get some balance to our lineup and our rotation,” Orioles exec Dan Duquette said.”
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/east-notes-bethancourt-orioles-yankees.html
Metsense, Pelfrey got 20 million. To me that’s for a below average starter. Barely adequate. If the remaining borderline average pitchers like Pelfrey can get those type of numbers, surely the Met’s can find a trading partner..
I would imagine Niese’s value may be a small tick above Gee’s last winter, at best. Don’t forget, Niese is thought to have a bad shoulder and the rumor that Alderson didn’t include Niese in a trade two years ago because Niese would fail the physical is supported by Niese’s falling arm angle every year which screams “shoulder injury” to every baseball commentator and no one has ever disagreed.
It would be great if Niese had some real value, but I would be surprised.
Gus if he’s pitching with a bad shoulder then shame on him and his agent. Better to shut down and if it requires one year to heal than so be it. How much does he expect to get in FA when he’s going to fail every physical he takes? Taking one for the team? Insane if you ask me.