We hope you enjoyed our top 50 prospect series, which ended today with David posting prospect number one. This was a group project and the end result was a consensus and not any one individual person’s list. To rectify a mistake from last year, here’s the list in one place:
| S. Matz | L. Guillorme | G. Ynoa | K. Canelon | L. Mazzilli |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Smith | E. Garcia | A. Sanchez | J. Mora | J. McNeil |
| G. Cecchini | C. Flexen | D. Winningham | J. Diehl | K. Kaczmarksi |
| B. Nimmo | C. Oswalt | D. Alvarez | D. Thompson | J. Duff |
| A. Rosario | L. Carpio | M. Wotell | P. Conlon | J. Walters |
| W. Becerra | L. Verrett | N. Crismatt | M. Oberste | J. Lugo |
| D. Lindsay | P. Mazeika | J. Simon | M. Gonzalez | M. Jannis |
| M. Molina | R. Gsellman | L. Taylor | R. Knapp | B. Brosher |
| M. Ramos | J. Urena | J. Medina | R. Lara | G. Llanes |
| M. Reynolds | A. Morris | J. Smoker | T. Szapucki | T. Badamo |
But in any group list, there’s always going to be disagreements. Here we list places where individually we didn’t agree with the group. James Newman participated in the overall list but did not submit a list for this part of the project. Here are the rest of our thoughts:
Rob Rogan: Personally, I feel that Corey Oswalt ended up a bit too high at 15. There’s nothing in his overall performance to get you excited. Despite a small sample of games at the end of the 2015 season, he’s been incredibly underwhelming. On the flip side, I felt that Robert Gsellman was under-ranked at 19. Now, if we’re looking at raw statistics we can see that Gsellman and Oswalt had pretty similar 2015 seasons. Gsellman walked more but gave up fewer hits while striking out fewer than Oswalt. However, Gsellman did this two levels higher at the same age as Oswalt. At the very least, I’d have flipped these two on the list.
One prospect that went unranked whom I feel should have been was Kingsport center fielder Raphael Ramirez. I pushed relatively hard for this one, but was summarily shouted down on him. The reasons presented were valid, but this was more a projection pick based on his toolsy outfielder profile that included plus speed with a good glove and some pop. His profile, in my opinion, is more exciting than future potential bench players and bullpen arms that make up parts of the back end of our list.
David Groveman: Overrated – Brandon Brosher is only listed because of a torrid streak back in 2014 that ended in injury. It is unlikely he ever gets close to that production again… Mickey Jannis wasn’t a player I had ranked in my Top 50 and I see him as unlikely to be an impact pitcher in the majors. R. A. Dickey was a special story and the Mets aren’t catching knuckled lightning in a bottle twice… Ricky Knapp is likely ranked too highly and could be swapped with a player like Kaczmarski in the rankings… David Thompson is here only because we have hopes for him achieving the ceiling of his potential. His results in his minor league debut were terrible and he could have probably have been ranked in the upper 40s… I didn’t have Logan Taylor in my top 50 at all and don’t consider him a prospect to watch. He doesn’t have the strikeout rate or control that a quality pitcher needs to have… Ali Sanchez has to re-create his DSL success soon or he will go the way of Vicente Lupo… I didn’t want to argue it but Gabriel Ynoa isn’t a worthwhile prospect. He’s going to throw some innings at the major league level but only as a replacement level starter.
Underrated – I think Tyler Badamo could be listed up to 15 positions higher based upon his success in the NYPL… I had Kevin Kaczmarski ranked nearly 10 spots higher but I don’t disagree with anything Brian said in his review… Merandy Gonzalez is definitely ranked too lowly but got left off of people’s lists in the shuffle. His success in Rookie ball, age and ceiling combine to make him too intriguing to only be 37th on our list… I had Nabil Crismatt higher and think he will probably be moving up this ranking list in the near future… I wanted to rank Patrick Mazeika in the Top 10 prospects. He was a tremendous surprise in 2015 and my gut tells me it wasn’t a fluke. My hope is that my gut is right because that kind of hitting will translate well.
Brian Joura – My biggest issue is Matt Reynolds. For the most part these disagreements are subjective but to me there’s no way you can objectively look at his overall case and conclude he should be ranked 10th. Like David, my belief is that Ynoa and Thompson are ranked too high here. Also put me among the doubters that Dario Alvarez, Jeffrey Diehl and L.J. Mazzilli will ever amount to much. I’m more bullish on Luis Carpio, P.J. Conlon and Max Wotell but that’s personal preference. And as long as we’re talking about subjective views and personal preferences, I’m still holding out hope for Ivan Wilson, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Thanks for all the hard work in assembling this. I know its a huge task, and it is really a highlight for the whole M360 readership. Thanks to each of you for putting in so much effort.
Chris F
Thanks for the kind words!
It really does take a lot of work to put this together but it’s fun, too. Well, maybe it’s not fun when the others are trashing a guy that you just nominated, but generally fun.
+1. This was very educational for Mets fans.
I enjoyed it, too. Thank you.
And thoughts on the overall state of the farm system?
It’s about average. I don’t know enough about other systems to say “12th” or “18th” or anything precise. This time last year, I would have said the back half of the top 10 and then everyone rated it in the top 5.
They have an AS quality pitcher in Matz. I think among all of the SS currently in the system that one of them will step up and become a ML regular. I believe in Dominic Smith and think he’ll be a starting-caliber 1B, even if not the HR-hitting guy I’d prefer to have there. If Eudor Garcia was a stock, I would be encouraging everyone to buy. I believe that at least one of the other SP will be a #3/#4 guy and there are no shortage of guys to compete for bullpen roles. I’m bullish on some of the guys they drafted last year but at this point that’s more hope than anything else.
I think it’s likely that with all of the graduations of the past few years that outside of Matz, the biggest value of the farm currently may be as trade chits. And that’s perfectly fine. If the Mets deal Nimmo, Rosario and Gsellman for the next version(s) of Yoenis Cespedes, then the farm system has done its job.
Sorry for being dense, Brian, but do you think Reynolds should be ranked higher or lower than 10th?
Lower. Before the start of the project, I rated 52 people and Reynolds wasn’t on my list. He probably should be ranked in a top 50 – I mean he’s likely to play in the majors and it’s unlikely that the Mets have 50 guys in their system right now who will play in the majors. But, in all honesty, I’d put his career upside on par with what Wilfredo Tovar has done to date.
But if you gave me the choice of having Matt Reynolds or Ivan Wilson, who’s been terrible in short-season ball, I’d pick Wilson. Reynolds likely has a 90% chance of playing in the majors. Wilson probably has less than a 5% chance of doing the same. But if Wilson makes it, he’ll have a 99.94% chance to make a bigger impact than Reynolds, in my opinion.
Brian, David, James and Rob—–thanks for the work. Your efforts provided a great deal of enjoyment.
One question: who would each of you pick as the “sleeper” of the group?
Give me your definition of sleeper and I’ll be happy to answer your question.
Thanks for considering my question.
Sleeper: a player who is unexpectedly successful. In this case it would pertain to a player in your top fifty rankings (or lower) who might be likely to be a hit higher than most expect.
OK, I took the rankings of mlb.com, which lists the top 30 by org. The highest-ranked guys on our list who were not on that list were Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt. I think we all liked Flexen, so I’ll go with Oswalt as my choice.
His numbers have been good but he’s been in pitcher parks the past two seasons. I think we’ll find out a lot about him this year when he moves to SLU, one of the best hitter’s parks in the FSL.
Sleeper Pitcher: J. Smoker – He comes with pedigree and plenty of “Stuff” he just needs to keep making strides. He could be on the Mets by June in high leverage bullpen situations.
Sleeper Hitter: J. McNeil – He’s a contact oriented guy with positional flexibility. He could make himself an elite pinch hitter.
I’m gonna go with Urena. He was on the hot prospect track before aggressive promotion and injuries derailed his 2015 and his prospect status. I’m looking for a nice bounce back in 2016.
Want to pass along my gratitude also on a job well done.
Thanks for the kind words, all! This was definitely a challenging project, but it was fun to do.
This project was rough but easier having the help of Brian, Rob and James.
Well done, gentlemen!
Brian, great site, thanks! I have looked around the ‘net a bunch and I haven’t seen a significant article on T.J. Rivera. I’ve seen comments that he’s old (is 27 too old?) and isn’t good defensively, but he can hit and get on base. Would you take the time to give us a fuller assessment of T.J. and why he isn’t getting more love as a prospect? Thanks, JOB
Thanks for the kind words!
Rivera can hit for AVG but he doesn’t bring a whole lot else to the plate. Think Josh Satin. Rivera’s got a touch more defensive versatility and a touch less power than Satin. He’s not the worst guy in the world to have in the majors but all of his value will be tied up on whether the hits fall in. Again, let’s look at Satin. In 2013, Satin looked really good but he had a .379 BABIP. In 2014, the hits didn’t fall in and he hasn’t made it back to the majors.
Also, Rivera’s hitting after the promotion to Las Vegas was not good last year. Our rule of thumb is that the major league equivalent of Las Vegas numbers is to do OBP*.81 and SLG*.66
So, the translation of Rivera’s Triple-A numbers last year was a .279 OBP and a .292 SLG
It was only 196 PA but it does not in any way show a guy who we should be fired up about.
Brian, thank you for answering my question on T.J. Much appreciated.
You can Give him Love…Just not Prospect Love
Seriously…we all root for a guy like this.
True dat.
Brian, I know Parnell did poorly coming back from T.J. surgery. I haven’t heard anything about him in quite a while. He certainly isn’t in the current discussion for a roster spot. Some guys take a bit longer to recover from that surgery. What do the Mets think about him now? Is he still with the team? What has he been doing this winter to come back and what is your sense of his ability to make a complete recovery and resume his place as an important piece of the Mets bullpen in the future? Thanks again for taking our questions.
He is not with the team and from what I heard on MLB radio the other day neither the Mets, nor any other team, have expressed interest in Parnell. I think that came from Duquette and Bowden
Bobby Parnell remains a free agent … unlikely the Mets would bring him back
From Mike Puma NYP the other day.
Yeah, I agree with Chris in that it’s very unlikely the Mets will bring him back. They simply have too many arms, both expected in camp and on the horizon.
I did hear a report that his velocity was back but I haven’t heard any teams linked to him. My guess is he’s going to have to take an NRI and try to make a team out of Spring Training. But I also expect he’ll play in the majors again, even if that isn’t on Opening Day, 2016.
Thanks, Chris. I confess to being totally confused by his situation. Since when did a major league team not give a formerly top pitcher every chance to come back? I find myself wondering if he did something else that made him untouchable. Anything you can add to the story would be much appreciated. Jim
Hi Jim,,
I find it hard to comment much because of my personal opinions, but the lack of interest across 30 teams says quite a bit. Parnell served out his entire rehab stint and had to be activated. In my opinion he was given every opportunity to succee in high and low leverage situations. He ultimately failed. He was given the chance opportunity to go back to DL. The long and short of it is that the team cannot hold a roster spot open for a guy who they cannot play, and who is not ready to contribute. His performance was horrific and resulted in several losses. A post season team can’t rehab an unknown in season.
For full disclosure, I repeatedly on this web site advocated for releasing Parnell. I have zero confidence in him. So take my comments for what they are worth.
Chris
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