To date, the Mets have spent more money this offseason on Asdrubal Cabrera than any other acquisition, which in a sense makes him the most important addition to the team. The hope is that he will provide steady defense and a plus bat for the position. No one is expecting him to be a star. Instead, the hope is he will give the team consistency at a position where that trait has been in short supply since Jose Reyes bolted for Miami.
Yet it’s important to point out that consistency has hardly been the hallmark of Cabrera’s career up until this point, at least offensively. Since becoming a starter back in 2008, Cabrera’s OPS+ numbers have ranged from 89 to 121. Just when it looked like he was developing some consistency – he put up OPS+
of 96 and 93 in 2013 and 2014 – he put up a 105 mark last year. And even last year was a tale of two halves.
Before the All-Star break, Cabrera put up a .223/.275/.352 line with a .276 BABIP. Then in the second half he exploded with a .328/.372/.544 line with a .348 BABIP. He couldn’t buy a hit in the first half and every ball found a hole in the second half.
However, on defense Cabrera has been fairly consistent. The bad news is that he’s been consistently poor in the field, racking up a negative UZR/150 for eight straight years. The past two seasons he’s recorded a (-10.5) and a (-10.4) in his time at shortstop, in which he’s played over 1,900 innings combined. DRS has him at (-7) in each of the past two years and at (-16) the season before that. He may look like a shortstop but the numbers are completely unimpressed with his results at the position.
Here are our individual forecasts for Cabrera:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | UZR/150 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 602 | .255 | .324 | .417 | 17 | 61 | -6.7 |
| Charlie Hangley | 520 | .258 | .320 | .406 | 10 | 60 | -10.2 |
| Brian Joura | 533 | .241 | .307 | .387 | 14 | 72 | -10.8 |
| Mike Kohler | 600 | .265 | .325 | .420 | 12 | 61 | -10.0 |
| Matt Netter | 500 | .250 | .315 | .380 | 11 | 58 | -9.0 |
| James Newman | 550 | .270 | .330 | .425 | 16 | 75 | -11.3 |
| Rob Rogan | 574 | .260 | .310 | .405 | 12 | 52 | -11.0 |
| Larry Smith | 401 | .248 | .307 | .400 | 14 | 57 | -10.1 |
| Chris Walendin | 560 | .245 | .293 | .389 | 13 | 55 | -12.0 |
No one sees Cabrera falling on his face offensively. James takes the most optimistic path, forecasting a .755 OPS but both Mike and Joe have predictions very close to that. Meanwhile, Brian, Chris and Matt all see him failing to reach a .700 OPS but all three see him close enough where he can see that milestone if he squints. No one forecasts a random plus year defensively.
Here’s our official group forecast:
Essentially, we see him producing a year right in line with what he did in 2015 with the Rays. We don’t think he’ll slug quite as well but our forecast says if you liked what he did last year, you’ll be happy with his 2016 production. Now let’s check and see how our forecast stacks up to the big boys.
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 537 | .251 | .309 | .412 | 14 | 57 |
| Mets360 | 538 | .255 | .315 | .405 | 13 | 61 |
| Steamer | 505 | .243 | .305 | .393 | 13 | 53 |
| ZiPS | 567 | .258 | .315 | .421 | 15 | 65 |
As you would probably expect with a veteran player with no major health issues, all of the forecasts are pretty similar. In a bit of a surprise, the most optimistic forecast belong to ZiPS, which has the top mark in all six categories. Steamer does show Cabrera dropping just below the .700 OPS mark.
Check back Monday for our next entry in the projection series.
I thought I was abundantly clear that my HR & RBI projections were meant to be taken out to the ten thousandths place, Brian.
Ha!
I had so much trouble getting this posted – maybe that’s the reason why. Regardless, your HR & RBI numbers have been adjusted.
I didn’t like this signing before, and I hate it still. We received only slight worse offensive production (OPS .703) and better defense (-3.3 UZR/150) from Wilmer Flores last year, than we’re predicting for Cabrera this year. And for a crap-ton less money.
The only thing this does is free up Flores to play 3B if Wright goes out, but that degrades his value. Stupid, stupid signing.
3 of the 4 projections have Cabrera at ~720. An increase of 20 OPS is hardly negligible and rather significant. And let’s not forget that Flores enhanced production was based around a week in Denver and Philly.Take those 3 games in Denver away and his season OPS drops to 12 points to 690. Take away both series and it’s down to a paltry 675, which is rather close to what he did in 2014.
LOL if you believed in those Flores UZR numbers.
His career numbers are a little higher than I think you might believe they are. I’m anticipating he’ll have plenty of starts in the hole, plus some time at second and third as needed, so he’ll get the at-bats. And as long as there are no gaping holes, Cespedes or not, the lineup shouldn’t be as awful as most of 2015, giving Cabrera a chance to have a solid season.
And yet Cabrera’s even worse defense is supposed to be swept under the rug? You don’t get to cherry pick stats on Flores to make him seem worse than he was. All players go on streaks. And if you think any projections matter in the long run, well then LOL to your heart’s content. I hope I”m wrong about Cabrera.
+1.If the FO really wanted to sign Cespedes, they would of taken this money along with Colon and De Aza signings and have a real upgrade that would of made this team the favorite to get back into the WS.
On a side note off topic. Would anyone care to comment as the latest rumor has the Nat’s sign Cespedes?
It sure looks like it’s going to have a huge impact on the NL East this year, a big swing in either direction. All the analysis aside, I’d be thrilled if the Mets stepped up and signed this imperfect player.
I would also be shocked. This all feels very familiar, where there’s no fierce intent to get it done.
Mets fans — and teammates — are waiting for this clear signal. What’s it going to be?
Olney reports that the Mets have offered a 3-year deal with an opt out after one year. If the money is close and he really wants to play in NY, you think this type of framework can get it done.
I think Jeff is the X factor here.
I simply haven’t seen Cabrera play that much, don’t have a feel for him, so can only go on what I’ve read.
The numbers are no encouraging; however, some of the anecdotal record — how his teammates view him — suggest that he might be a solid addition that goes beyond numbers.
I don’t have a judgment on this one, but in some ways I view it as a good sign that Sandy was willing to finally move on at SS and try for an upgrade.
I’m very curious to watch him play on a regular basis to see for myself.
I should add that I believe marginal-power RH hitters have not normally done well at Citi Field. Used to be an impossible park to play in, though perhaps that has shifted a bit after bringing in the fences (3 times, right?).
Pete, this is not rotisserie baseball. sometimes the combination of smaller pieces make a better whole that one top level player. Long season and the small moves the Mets made will be invaluable …even if you don’t like them.
Buddy I have stated before that the Mets FO is like a kid in a candy store who only has a dollar to spend. He can buy one good candy for 99 cents or he can buy 4 cheaper quality candies for 25 cents each. Cheaper doesn’t always equal value Buddy.De Aza is not a true centerfielder and a below average defender. Just the fact that the Mets are still in the hunt for Cespedes And offering 3 years (inconsistent with Aldersons FA signings) tells me the team would still prefer to have Cespedes. Given the fact that the team would have to face him 18 times as an opponent I would of felt much better had Cespedes signed with Detroit. It dramatically changes the division. It’s not easy to find a RH bat that can provide you with 30+ HR’s and 100 RBI’s consistently.
Well Buddy i guess I am on a rotisserie team after all! The deal satisfies both parties and keeps Cespedes away from the Nat’s. Buys the team an additional year to find the money to re-sign Cespedes after he opts out. Puts the Met’s back in as the front runners to repeat.