Highlights:
Mets sign lefty Antonio Bastardo to solidify the back end of the pen.
Spring Training will feature 12 pitchers competing for three roster spots.
Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins will largely determine this relief corps’ success.
Improving the bullpen was clearly a high priority in the Mets offseason plan. Recent acquisitions Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins were re-upped and Antonio Bastardo was just signed this week. They’ll join closer Jeurys Familia and three others who emerge from a crowded spring training competition of veteran long men and specialists. Does this make for a strong enough bullpen to lock down the late innings for a team in contention?
While it’s not on par with the Yankees, who, barring a trade, feature three overpowering closers to turn every game into a six-inning affair, it may be good enough if it’s handled the right way. Let’s break it down.
Do we have a strong closer? Yes. Aside from a rocky World Series, due partly to poor fielding behind him, Familia was mostly terrific last year, blossoming into one of the better relievers in the game with 43 saves, a 1.85 ERA and a K/9 rate of nearly 10. His hard sinking fastball and disappearing splitter are extremely challenging to square up and he has the makeup to intimidate, get out of jams and bounce back from adversity.
Do we have a quality setup man who can step in as closer if needed? Yes. Reed is a former closer who saved 101 games from 2012 to 2014. Last season, his first as a setup man, took some getting used to; however he hit his stride late in the season with the Mets. In 17 regular season games, Reed posted a sparkling 1.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 10.
Do we have a reliable 7th inning pitcher? We do now. The 29-year-old Bastardo is an experienced lefty (341 games) who can get out hitters from both sides of the plate. His career K/9 rate of 11 is impressive, as is a career batting average against of .199, including just .138 from left-handed batters.
Do we have situational guys who can get us a key out? Yes. Josh Edgin should be returning from Tommy John surgery shortly into the season. Along with Bastardo and Blevins, that gives us three lefties with a history of dominating same side hitters, but who are all more than just LOOGYs. From the right side we have hard throwing Hansel Robles, the crafty Erik Goeddel and, later in the season, Jennry Mejia.
Do we have a reliable long man for extra-inning games, blowouts, injuries, etc.? Yes. Veteran righty Carlos Torres will be back, as will the surprisingly effective lefty Sean Gilmartin. Also in the mix for a longman/spot starter are Logan Verrett, the enigmatic Rafael Montero, and by midseason when Zack Wheeler returns to the rotation, Bartolo Colon.
Do we have a few guys in AAA who could step in if anyone struggles or gets injured? Yes. As if all the above mentioned names don’t make for a crowded enough game of musical chairs, Las Vegas will feature Josh Smoker, Dario Alvarez, Akeel Morris and Seth Lugo.
If you’re keeping tabs, that’s 17 arms for a seven-seat game of musical chairs to comprise our bullpen at any time during the offseason. How Sandy Alderson manages that merry-go-round and nimbly makes adjustments in season will greatly determine the success of the 2016 bullpen. Secondary to its success is how Manager Terry Collins uses his pitchers situationally. Thankfully, the LOOGY who shall never again be mentioned at Mets360 has been removed as a go-to option. However, Collins has a history of questionable in-game decision making, particular when it comes to his relief pitchers. There’s enough talent and depth in this bullpen to get us through the season. As for how many close games we pull out, that will be up to the men making the decisions.
To say it’s more about the manager than the talent is somewhat ridiculous. The equation is simple; after 6 then 7, 8 & 9.
Please explain what else is there?
Eric, tell me you didn’t question a single one of Terry’s bullpen decisions last season. He continually tried to use Alex Torres as a LOOGY even though he does not have the splits to support that role. He kept trotting out the horrible O’Flaherty in fairly high leverage situations. And he overworked Clippard despite signs of a strained back that was holding back his velocity. He also used Familia a few times with a 4 run lead for no reason.
6,7,,8,9 sounds easy, but roles have to be defined and stuck to and a manager’s job is to maximize the strengths of the players he has. If the pieces aren’t right then that’s on Alderson, but I believe we have enough quality arms to trot out a very good, though not great pen.
I see your point up to a point though I think it was more an issue of not having better options in many cases. I agree Terry tries to get too creative at times but I just don’t think it’s as big an issue as you make it out to be
Looks like Alderson is expecting a lot of 2-1 and 1-0 games; and here we were hoping for offense. He wants to be baseball’s version of the 2000 Ravens.
This may change Brian’s mind…
Bastardo vs. some key NL hitters:
Freeman – .000 (0 for 19)
Harper – .167 (3 for 14)
Zimmerman – .000 (0 for 7)
Murphy – .214 (3 for 14)
Span – .000 (0 for 7)
Cargo – .200 (1 for 5)
A Gon – .200 ( 1 for 5)
Votto – .250 (2 for 8)
Heyward – .105 (2 for 19)
Stanton – .000 (0 for 5)
Big names notably absent (Posey, Rizzo, Bryant, McCutcheon, Goldschmidt, et al) – all fewer than 5 ABs.
The one hitter i noticed who has slugged Bastardo is Martin Prado.
Freakin Prado.
But isn’t that why they signed Blevins?
Look, the question is rarely – can random lefty reliever A get out lefty batters? Because the answer many more times than not is – yes. Scott Rice held LHB to a .196 AVG and a .536 OPS, which is great. But he still stunk because he couldn’t face a RHB without getting pummeled.
At the end of the day, how many times do the lefty hitters who kill righty pitching but who are neutralized by lefties come up in late and close situations? We have SP who are going to pitch into the seventh on a regular basis and we have a shutdown closer who’s going to pitch the final inning in those games. And, for better or worse, Blevins is already on the team. For all things holy, the last thing we need to do is focus any more on this already well-covered subgroup of hitters in this narrow span of innings in the further narrow category of close games.
It’s great that Bastardo does well against lefty hitters. It sure beats the alternative. But since he was brought in to be a reliever, and not a specialist, I am 10,000 times more interested in how he does against the entire universe of MLB hitters. He was quite good in 2015. He was not good in 2014. He was good in 2013. He was not good in 2012. Maybe he’ll be great the next two years. That’s what I’ll be pulling for. But I’m not willing to wager anything on that being the outcome because he’s been all over the map throughout his career.
No one wants to give a rookie or young guy a chance because they don’t know how he’s going to fare in the majors. My point is you can say the exact same thing about Bastardo. But we’re committing to him for two years and paying him 12X as much as a rookie over that same span. And almost no one has a problem with that, which boggles my mind.
I’m not saying there’s no way the Bastardo signing works out for the Mets. If he performs as well as he did in 2015 the next two seasons, he’ll probably be worth his contract. But since he hasn’t pitched well yet in back-to-back years and will need to do it in three straight seasons — I don’t see it being a good gamble. Especially when you bring the leverage equation into it. The guy has excelled in low leverage situations throughout his career but has been less than good in his career in high leverage ones. And now we’re counting on him for high leverage situations.
This is a $12 million gamble on the quality of innings (or production) a guy will provide. They didn’t want to gamble on a Denard Span, because of health concerns. They didn’t want to gamble on an Aroldis Chapman, because of character concerns. It just seems odd that you would gamble on a guy because of production and then pay $12 million for the privilege. I mean, if you’re going to gamble on production, why not pay minimum wage?
If the teams who gamble on Span and Chapman win their gamble, their reward is going to be a player who far exceeds the value of his contract. If the Mets win their gamble on Bastardo, he’s at best going to be worth the value of his contract. There’s no upside to this deal. And that should matter to a team counting its pennies.
Brian, trivia question. What do Freddie Freeman and Ben Zobrist have in common? A .429 career batting average against Jerry Blevins. For how he’s dominated Freeman and Harper alone, Bastardo was worth the signing.
Bastardo is not a LOOGY. He has been effective against righties as well (Giancarlo Stanton is hitless in 7 PAs) and can be a solid 7th inning guy. I feel pretty good about Bastardo-Reed-Familia to close out games. It’s not Miller-Betances-Chapman good, but it should get the job done.
You certainly used the right word when you said trivia.
Bastardo can be good. Bastardo can be bad. We’ve seen both and it’s a crapshoot what we’ll get from him the next two years.
I love the look of the pen. I expect Robles to make the same leap this season, Familia made in 2014 as the primary setup man. He’s got amazing stuff and if he can mature a bit, he could breakout and take over the 8th inning. That would leave a nice righty/lefty combo for the 7th (like the days of Myers and Orosco) in Reed and Bastardo, with Blevins, Goeddel, and whoever the 7th man is (likely Torres at least to start the season). I trust every one of those pitchers in their roles. Lots of depth still in AAA, with reinforcements coming at the break in way of Wheeler, Colon to the pen, Edgin back…
You said it right there at the end – the bullpen overall has talent and depth. If that’s the result I’m not going to quibble over $12M of the Wilpons’ money.
This bullpen is a lot stronger than last years going into spring training and so is the bench for that matter if they decide to add ces to the outfield or even someone like rayburn as utility.
The entire offseason hinges on the next 24 hours. If we bring back Ces, we had a great offseason. If not, especially if he goes to Washington, it’s very very disappointing.
Do we have room for Tyler Clippard if we can get him on the cheap for 1 year or do Goeddel, Robles and Torres offer enough quality at a fraction of the cost?
Carlos torres DFA’d to make room for Bastardo
Carlos Torres seemed like a good guy and he served the Mets well. But I think this is the right move.
I don’t know about Clippard. He looked terrible at the end of the season.
Clippard was terrific until he tweaked his back. I think Terry overused him. If his back checks out somebody should scoop him up. I’m not sure we need him now.
Carlos torres is underrated, he’s solid everytime sandy asked him to spot start, and his overall numbers dating back to a few seasons ago were quietly strong.
You guys like to blame the mgr. If a guy gets tweeks his back but can still pitch what do you do? With no other options and no time to shut him down for a bit, it’s hard to blame the mgr
I just read an article criticizing the mets defense overall, but I thought our infield defense is better with walker and cabrera, and even flores with experience under his belt.