After years of watching Daniel Murphy at 2B, Mets fans will have to get used to someone else manning second base in 2016. The club brought in Neil Walker to fill the bill. And while the fans won’t have immediate familiarity with Walker, they will still find his game similar to what they’re used to. Walker is another offensive-first player. The hope is that he’ll be just as good offensively, slightly better defensively and come without some of the brain farts that were part of the Murphy package.
A switch-hitter, Walker is much stronger from the left side of the plate. In an ideal world, he might be a platoon candidate, especially with the Mets carrying two middle infielders who bat from the right side. But so far there’s been no indication from management that platooning is in the cards. And armed with a $10 million contract, it seems unlikely that it will start off that way.
Here are our individual forecasts for Walker:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | OPS vs LHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 626 | .303 | .356 | .480 | 21 | 84 | .626 |
| Scott Ferguson | 600 | .275 | .340 | .440 | 18 | 73 | .600 |
| Charlie Hangley | 624 | .272 | .340 | .427 | 12 | 75 | .615 |
| Brian Joura | 491 | .285 | .351 | .446 | 13 | 58 | .595 |
| Mike Kohler | 600 | .270 | .330 | .420 | 17 | 55 | .615 |
| Matt Netter | 550 | .273 | .335 | .428 | 15 | 72 | .620 |
| James Newman | 480 | .280 | .325 | .415 | 16 | 70 | .585 |
| Doug Parker | 550 | .260 | .325 | .425 | 12 | 67 | .550 |
| Rob Rogan | 580 | .265 | .340 | .430 | 15 | 73 | .650 |
| Larry Smith | 550 | .265 | .328 | .430 | 17 | 65 | .625 |
| Chris Walendin | 615 | .280 | .338 | .457 | 20 | 75 | .678 |
Nine of our 11 writers think he’ll top 500 PA, with five of those projecting in excess of 600 PA. We see him being better than pre-September Murphy at the plate. No one forecasts him being particularly good against LHP, with Chris’ .678 OPS leading the pack. Chris and Joe both see him reaching the 20-HR plateau, something he’s done just one time previously in his career.
Here’s our official group forecast:
We see him performing right in line with what he did last year, which is below his lifetime marks. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the number of RBIs we forecast. It’s not that this is a big number for Walker personally, but given the uncertainty of where he’ll bat in the lineup, it’s potentially a healthy number for a guy who could bat seventh. Now let’s check and see how our forecast compares to the big boys.
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 559 | .263 | .330 | .436 | 18 | 65 |
| Mets360 | 570 | .273 | .338 | .430 | 16 | 70 |
| Steamer | 571 | .258 | .329 | .427 | 19 | 63 |
| ZiPs | 562 | .261 | .330 | .440 | 19 | 71 |
All the forecasts are very similar. Of the six categories, ours is the highest only in AVG. There’s a consensus what the veteran will produce and the Mets should be happy if he delivers these numbers over a full season of plate appearances.
I wonder if we’re getting better at predicting these stats or if the models are getting worse :p
Neil Walker is a good ball player. He is a slightly better 2nd baseman defensively, but Murphy’s productivity at the plate makes him the all round better player. Walker has a propensity to strike out almost 100 times per year whereas Murphy is the best in the NL at putting the ball in play. Murphy hits with runners in scoring position. Before it is all said and done, the Murphy’s absence in the Mets lineup will be greatly missed. I fear David Wright’s best years are far behind him, especially now with limited range defensively. Despite having the best starting pitching in baseball it will be a long .500 at best won/lost record in baseball. Reason: Starting pitchers are 6 and 7 inning pitchers and with suspect middle relievers its going to be a long year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats switch Murphy to 3B which is is best defensive position.
Murphy was better offensively last year because of his insane closing month of the season but overall Walker has been a better offensive player by just every metric that measures total offensive value. It’s nice that Murphy strikes out fewer times. I’d rather have the guy with the higher OPS+ or wOBA or WPA. And unless Murphy proves that what he did in September and early October is his new norm, that player is Walker.
As a Pirates fan that flirted with the Mets while the Pirates sucked I’ve seen a good deal of Neil Walker and Daniel Murphy and I think they are pretty similar players. The stats don’t tell the whole story on either guy because they have qualities that aren’t defined by stats. Walker was a fan favorite in Pittsburgh because of hard work. He’s never been gifted defensively but got better just by working at it all the time.
I don’t know much about Terry Collins as a manager but I’ve always thought Walker would be better with a manager that was better at filling out the lineup card than Hurdle. Hurdle is a great rah-rah guy but I don’t think he’s the best strategically.
Lee – great to hear from you!
If that’s your opinion of Hurdle, you’re better off not knowing much about Collins…