This is a bigger question than you may realize. For a playoff contending team, the primary setup man is a key cog in the team’s success. Many close games are won and lost in the pivotal 8th inning. If Addison Reed is up to the task, the Mets will have a strong and deep bullpen – perhaps the best they’ve had in 10 years. If he falters, Terry Collins will have to nimbly shift bullpen roles – not his strength, and Sandy Alderson will have to make an in-season trade, the type that rarely materializes before at least June.
An ideal setup man serves two very important roles. First, he can pitch a clean 8th inning, bridging the gap between a starter and closer in a close game. Second, he can fill in as closer when the big guy needs a day off or gets injured. Many of the best 8th inning guys are future closers who aren’t yet ready for the high pressure or former closers who don’t throw quite as hard as they used to but can still get guys out. Reed falls into the latter category.
The Mets have had a sordid history with setup men, including some seasons that may have been lost due to a lack of a really good one. The most glaring example was Aaron Heilman, this writer’s least favorite Met of all-time. The former promising starter was converted to a reliever and then into a decent setup man upon Duaner Sanchez’ freak taxi cab injury. However, as the old Peter principle states, people rise to their level of incompetence. And so, when closer Billy Wagner went down with an elbow injury, Heilman was thrust into the closer role with disastrous results that nearly single handedly cost the Mets a crack at the playoffs in 2008.
The Mets learned their lesson and traded a haul for former closer JJ Putz, who had an off year in his one season as a Met. In the years that followed, the Mets were busy rebuilding so the relief corp was not a high priority, as evidenced by the who’s who of hasbeens that occupied the bullpen over the next five years – Elmer Dessens, Manny Acosta, Tim Byrdak, Pedro Beato, Ramon Ramirez, Jon Rauch, Miguel Batista, etc etc.
Once it became clear the Mets would be in contention last season, GM Sandy Alderson reprioritized and, for the first time in his tenure, made the bullpen a high priority. In July, he made key trades for the former closers Reed and Tyler Clippard. To acquire Reed, the Mets parted with the marginal prospects Miller Diaz and Matt Koch.
During the Mets’ dazzling charge through August and September, Reed locked down the 7th inning with a 1.17 ERA in 17 appearances, handing the ball off to Clippard, who successfully bridged the gap to Jeurys Familia. Clippard was sensational until a stiff back and fatigue (perhaps overuse) led to a rocky last few weeks of the season and playoffs. Clippard has signed with the Diamondbacks for 2016 and Reed will likely be promoted into his place for the Mets.
Based on experience, Reed should be capable in this role. In three years as a closer from 2012 to 2014, he saved more than 100 games and made nearly 200 appearances.
The 6’4” righty was drafted out of San Diego State University in the third round by the White Sox in 2010. Reed made his big league debut in 2011 as a September call-up and turned heads, striking out 12 in seven innings. In 2012, the rookie served as the White Sox closer, racking up 29 saves in 64 appearances. He received no Rookie of the Year recognition however, as Mike Trout won the award unanimously with perhaps the best rookie season ever (a 10.8 WAR!). Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish also made their American League debuts in 2012, so Reed’s promising rookie year flew under the radar.
Reed picked up where he left off in 2013, racking up 40 saves while shaving nearly a full run off his ERA. In the offseason, he was traded to the Diamondbacks and then served as their closer for a year, notching 32 saves and a 10.5 K/9 rate. Reed struggled early in 2015 and lost his closer role to Brad Ziegler.
After getting traded to the Mets midseason, Reed seemed to turn things around as a setup man. Reed can strike guys out or get ground ball double plays with a mix of sinking fastballs and biting sliders. His three-quarter arm slot presents a different look out of the Mets bullpen. He has the stamina an arm strength to pitch on successive days and has the mental makeup to pitch in a big spot and bounce back from a bad outing.
Just 27 years old, Reed has a year of arbitration remaining so if he does his job this season, he could easily return to the Mets in 2017.
Seriously overpaid and overrated. Average reliever who should be the 3rd or 4th guy. Tendering him was One of the worst off season moves by Sandy.
Name – I agree with you that he makes for an average closer – blown too many saves. However, an average ex-closer can make a great setup guy – maybe. That’s the question. If heaven forbid Familia gets injured, there’s no question we would be forced into a trade. This bullpen is not constructed like the Giants or Cardinals where another guy could step in seamlessly. I’m not even mentioning our crosstown rivals because they legitimately have 3 closers. I would love to have found a way to trade for Andrew Miller.
“However, an average ex-closer can make a great setup guy – maybe”
I think you just made that up… no one says that.
The real saying is “An average ex-starter can make a great reliever – maybe”
Relievers are a year to year gamble. I don’t see Reed being the 8th inning guy, but I am confident that if he isn’t that Sandy will go get an arm at the trading deadline and hope that Mejia is off the juice.
Buddy3, that’s a great point about Mejia. Everyone’s geeked up about Wheeler coming back, but Mejia could also provide a great midseason boost to our pitching staff. He’s got closing experience, filthy stuff and a great reliever temperament. Plus, he give JDG competition for the best hair on the team.
All of Mejia’s numbers came while he was doping. He had a pretty miserable winter season. If the Mets are looking to Mejia as a closer assuming he can compete at any level without being a vile cheat, then the team is hosed. Im severely disappointed that he was offered a contract.
And now permanently banished from baseball for a third doping offense.
Good bye you miserable cheat.
Edgin,Colon and Mejia will be reinforcements in June,July and August. BP should be a strength.
Relievers are often a crapshoot. I agree that Sandy and TC won’t let us get in too big of a hole if Reed needs to be bumped from the 8th.
Reed was an overrated closer but was generally pretty good for the Mets during the regular season. I’m not overjoyed with him being the 8th inning guy and I think the combination of Reed and Bastardo could be a trouble spot.
I’m not predicting this to fail, just saying I’m concerned.
If I could re-do the offseason, I’d prefer the money being spent on these two guys instead went to one guy with a history of doing well in high leverage situations. The Mets’ SP should be able to go 7 IP on a regular basis and I’d rather have one star than two guys who are in the average to above-average range.
you and Mike Francessa agree on this point. So would you rather have Darren O’Day or Joakim Soria than both Bastado and Reed?
I think what we have could get us through the regular season, but come the all-star break, we’ll need to reassess. Having two closers is a luxury, but if we’re all in this year…
I’ll tell yeah, I’m very interested to see how the three headed closer model works out for the Yankees. That is a unique advantage.
Off the top of my head, I would have been looking at someone like Aroldis Champman or Drew Storen. Soria would have been good, too. Not sure I would have been excited for O’Day.
I feel pretty decent about the pen. Yes, like Brian, I’d love another stud, but the Mets spent a lot of money this winter in some strange ways. We’ll see how that goes. Given the team’s obvious strength at SP, I feel that strengthening the pen would have been the way to go. Sandy only inched in that direction.
Two things:
1) Let’s not forget Robles. I think it’s possible that he rises to the top. TC buried him during the playoffs. Let’s hope that 2016 continues his maturation.
2) If we believe in the unpredictability of relievers, then it stands to reason that a club would like a large pool of available talent. While no one can guarantee a strong year from Reed, I think the Mets are strengthened overall by having 3-4 guys who can credibly do the job. Maybe, hopefully.
Robles is key. He reminds me of the pre 2015 Familia.
This just in…Mejia suspended for life after failing a 3rd PED test.
I said that above. And should reiterate why we need to continually scream out against cheaters
I gotta ask… who is his supplier? Has he consider changing suppliers through out this ordeal? 3 positive tests in less than 2 years is just silly.
Plenty of players cheat in the game and don’t get caught. Taylor Teagarden has admitted to doping and yet he hasn’t been caught yet. Can Mejia not find a supplier who is competent? There are a bunch of ex-Mets he could ask. Justin Turner, Marlon Byrd, Bartolo Colon Valdespin, Puello…
Ok now how much do we get back from the Mejia contract? I had a lot of faith in Reed. I had no faith in Clippard at the end of the season or in the post-season.
Robles; superb! Lets watch him roll in 2016!
I believe all of it.
We need to see how the season starts off and have some patience. Robles will play a bigger role this year and Bastardo is a strong move as well. We have extra bats, Yo to get everyone around him better pitches, a killer rotation and much better D up the middle. We all feel that our starters can go 7 so with everyone in the pen we can get those last 6 outs.
Should be a another fun year at Citi.
NYM6986 your optimism is contageous. The bullpen is adequate but it’s not as easy to get excited about as our rotation, lineup and bench.
At the end of the season, I assumed the cheap Mets would not tender Reed because he was projected to make $5.7m in arbitration. He actually signed for $5.3m. The price of relief pitching appears to have gone up this winter with the likes of Bastardo and Clippard getting 2/12 contracts so Reed seems to be priced right. He also has another year of cost control and he was a former closer which is appealing.
Reed is getting paid based on his short time with the Mets
.
Reed WHIP 1.04 (22),K/9 10.13 ( 32) , HR/9 0.60 (38) as a Met
Bastardo WHIP 1.13 (23), K/9 10.5 (32), HR/9 0.63 (40)
Robles WHIP 1.02 (19), K/9 10.17 (31), HR/9 1’33 (96)
* the numbers in ( ) is the NL rank of relievers based on 108 pitchers/30 innings
There isn’t much difference between these three relievers except that Robles has not learned how to keep the ball in the park yet. (That could explain the Bastardo signing) . Blevins mixed in as the LOOGY should also be an asset in the 7th or 8th inning. Reed should be able to lock down the eighth but if he should struggle there are two other relievers that could take his place. Sandy has built an adequate bullpen with depth.