Terry Collins and the first 30 games

Thirty games makes up less than 20 percent of the season, but as we learned last season, getting off to a good start can go a long way toward making the playoffs.

Last year the Mets got off to a blistering start, going 19-11 in their first 30 games. It was a good thing too, because injuries and a lack of offense led to a really lame few months after that, before the July trades righted the ship.

This year, the schedule gods were kind to us and we begin with a real cream puff schedule that features many of the league’s bottom feeders in the first 30 games. The next 30 won’t be so kind with seven games against the Dodgers, and six each against the Nationals and Pirates, so we’d better come charging out of the gate.

Come Sunday, let’s hope the Mets hit the field with the enthusiasm and confidence they displayed at the end of last season and through the playoffs, because those traits have been largely absent during a moribund spring training. First up is a two game road series against the defending World Series champion Royals. Matt Harvey in game one. Noah Syndergaard in game two with a day off in between. A sweep would be fantastic against this team that should still be quite good, but no longer features playoff heroes Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto. We’d all settle for a split before we have two consecutive days off thanks to an odd scheduling hiccup.

The following weekend the Mets kickoff their first home stand at Citi Field, where they’ll be warmly greeted by sellout crowds and the new Coca-Cola Corner. We begin with three games against the Phillies, who should really stink on toast this season.  The only holdovers from their playoff teams are catcher Carlos Ruiz and first baseman Ryan Howard, a shell of his former self, but still capable of knocking one out of the park every now and again against a righty who leaves one over the plate. The Phillies have a nice young third baseman in Mikael Franco, but otherwise a bunch of unseasoned kids and fringe players. In a few years they might be good again. Until then, we should be able to beat the pants off them routinely.

The second home series will be against the Marlins who can score runs play defense but only have half a rotation and no bullpen. Whose turn it is in the rotation will make a big difference in how close these games are, but the fish usually give us fits so don’t expect these games to be a breeze. If we can sweep the Phillies and take two of three from the Marlins, a 5-1 home stand would get us on a roll.

Following another day off (there are no Thursday games for the Mets in April for some reason), we head to Cleveland for a three-game set with the Indians. The tribe feature an exciting young rotation on par with the Mets, but the rest of their team is nothing special save their brilliant young shortstop, Francisco Lindor. Progressive Field (yes, you might still call it the Jake) is a fun park to play in and the starter matchups should make for some great pitching duels. Two of three would be great here.

Next stop, Philadelphia for another three game series against our division doormats. Let’s plan on another sweep since Michael Conforto and Lucas Duda should have a field day with that right field porch. After another Thursday off, we head to Atlanta to face the other division bottom feeder, the rebuilding Braves. They still have pitcher Julio Teheran and Met killer first baseman Freddie Freeman. The team has a few solid veterans in Nick Markakis, AJ Pierzynski and Erick Aybar, to go with a bunch of rookies and centerfielder Ender Inciarte, so they might score some runs. But outside of Teheran their rotation is weak and will make it hard for them to stay in games. Mets should sweep this one.

Next, we go back home for a cakewalk three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, a team that has completely dismantled it’s pitching staff as the first step in a rebuilding process. They still have a formidable middle of the batting order in Brandon Phiillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, but that won’t be nearly enough to allow them to win more than 70 games this season. Another sweep is possible.

After yet another day off, the San Francisco Giants come to town for a three-game series. After missing the playoffs last year, Bruce Bochy’s crew figures to bounce back this year behind ace Madison Bumgarner, slugger Buster Posey and a bunch of free agent additions. Jake Peavy and Matt Cain are back but Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong have been replaced by Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Sounds like a lot of big names, but three of their five starters are coming off bad seasons and two are perpetual injury risks. Their lineup and defense are solid with most of their regulars returning from last year. When Bumgarner pitches, their tough to beat, but otherwise we should be able to take two of three at home.

The Braves come to Citi for three that should be easy to sweep. Then we finish out the first 30 games with a cross country trip to play four in San Diego. This is a strange team that tried to stockpile free agents a year ago and then pulled the plug but are not quite rebuilding.  The Padres have three good starting pitchers in James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner and the lineup still features Wil Myers and the no longer feared but still pretty good Matt Kemp. Other than that, they’re a mixed bag of unproven youngsters and hasbeens. Even on the road, we should be able to take three of four.

If you’re keeping up with the math, this crazy blogger thinks we can go 25-5 in the first 30. That might be a bit optimistic. Odds are we’ll lose at least one a piece to the Phillies and Braves and depending on how the pitching matchups shake out with the Marlins and Indians, we could lose a few more there. How does 20-10 sound?

Beating up on the lower rung teams is going to be essential to our success this year. Terry Collins and the coaching staff need to make sure the Mets players understand just how important that is. We can’t let up against the Phillies and Braves and give away games we should win.

We have 19 games against the Nationals, 34 against teams that were in the playoffs last year and another 18 versus formidable teams like the Giants, Indians, Twins and Diamondbacks, plus 19 against the always pesky Marlins. That’s 90 tough games. If we win the vast majority of the 72 games against the weaker teams, we won’t have to worry so much about the big matchups, until we get to the playoffs.