This is it, Mets fans. The games start to count tomorrow night, and we can put this awful spring behind us. The pitfalls of paying too much heed to Spring Training performances are well known and obvious. On the whole we can chalk the actual results the team had up to typical Spring Training factors. Playing time is uneven, players are working out kinks, swaths of playing time are given to players who won’t be on the roster, and, above all, the sample sizes are much too small. Make no mistake, though, there are concerns.
Matt Harvey is limping into the season after a Spring Training that wasn’t particularly encouraging. Sure, take his 7.50 ERA in 12 innings with that giant Spring Training-sized grain of salt, but outside that ugly number are some others that have more meaning. He’s given up 13 hits, 10 runs, and nine walks in those 12 innings. So while his nine strikeouts are nice, that 1.83 WHIP sure isn’t. Most importantly, though, may be the fact that he’s only thrown those 12 innings. As John Delcos suggested a few days ago, perhaps the Mets have not given him enough work in an attempt to protect him after he threw so many innings last season. After all, his 216 innings were the most ever by a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. So is it an actual “hangover” or is it simply a lack of sharpness after a light Spring Training load?
This hangover concept, specifically after a World Series appearance, is interesting and is touched on a bit by Dan Martin in the New York Post this week. He notes the recent struggles some teams have had in the years following successful and somewhat surprising seasons, including the Rockies, Tigers, and Rays of the last decade. This is anecdotal, sure, and the teams in question each had their own issues beyond a simple “hangover,” but the Mets themselves have an interesting history in this regard. They’ve now played in the World Series five times. Take a look at their records in the seasons after their first four appearances.
- 1970: 83-79, 3rd place
- 1974: 71-91, 5th place
- 1987: 92-70, 2nd place
- 2001: 82-80, 3rd place
What does this mean? Well, it means that the team just has not been very consistent when they’ve been good. That’s no surprise to Mets fans, though. Of course, the difference this time is that 2015 shouldn’t be considered surprising by any means. Much like that mid-to-late 1980s team, this one is built for sustained success with a young, talented core.
Still, and getting back to this hangover concept, there are other potential trouble signs. Jacob deGrom‘s dip in velocity is a slight concern, though he’s been great otherwise. Perhaps he’ll turn it up when the games count, but there’s at least some chance that a jump of 76 innings from 2014 to 2015 will have some lingering effects.
How about the fact that Terry Collins used the words “dead arm” to describe his bullpen in March? The hangover concept really would only apply to Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, and Hansel Robles, really, considering they’re the only ones on the roster now that also pitched through the playoffs in 2015. On the other hand, these are significant pieces of the 2016 bullpen and any lingering effects could be extremely detrimental. Ask the 2007 and 2008 Mets what a bad bullpen can do to an otherwise solid team’s chances. A bullpen hangover is not such an outlandish idea, at least according to Giants manager Bruce Bochy, whom Kevin Kernan claims suggested that his bullpen was exhausted the seasons after their recent World Series victories.
Regardless of how you feel about this hangover idea, the fact of the matter is that these are players that are mostly in uncharted territory. Most of them were pushed beyond anything they’d experienced before in 2015 and we have no way of knowing how their bodies will respond this season. The upside is that, now that they do have this experience, they know the kind of grind a successful team can expect at the end of the season and into the playoffs. Perhaps some of this underwhelming Spring Training performance is simply them taking it easy, knowing the grind that lies ahead. Most likely it’s just Spring Training and we shouldn’t worry so much. We’ll know soon enough.
Easy for me to say, but I hope this team doesn’t have a hangover… They should be as hungry as the Royals were last season. The pitching has seemed off, but the last start from Matz was promising. Hopefully Harvey makes an adjustment heading into the season.
I feel good about the Mets top four pitching starters, as well as some of the relievers, including Henderson, Reed, and Familia (although I wish I could be totally confident about the bullpen).
The hitting should be OK, particularly with Cespedes back. I’m happy that Flores is around as a “super sub,” since he’ll probably prove valuable to spell the regulars at all four infield positions. I expect at least 70 HRs from the top three OF starters, and another 25 from Duda.
And thank goodness Collins looks like he’ll have Lagares in CF more, rather than less!
Perhaps a hangover would explain Cespedes dropped fly ball?