Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. After a dismal year with just two correct prediction in 2014, last year I rebounded to get six right and missed out on another when Curtis Granderson finished with a .259 AVG instead of his predicted .261 mark.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “Noah Syndergaard will throw hard.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.
1. Granderson will establish a career high in doubles, breaking the mark of 38 he set in 2007.
2. Yoenis Cespedes will finish with more CS than SB.
3. Lucas Duda becomes the first Met since David Wright in 2010 to get 100 RBIs.
4. Asdrubal Cabrera finished with a sub .700 OPS
5. Eric Campbell has an OBP of .350 or greater.
6. Bartolo Colon notches fewer than 100 IP.
7. Travis d’Arnaud finishes with more PA than Neil Walker
8. Jeurys Familia posts an ERA a full run higher than last year.
9. Zack Wheeler returns with a 2.75 K/BB ratio.
10. Mets win the season series against both the Cubs and Pirates after getting swept by both last year.
11. Juan Lagares establishes career-high with .750 OPS
12. Antonio Bastardo finishes with a LOB% less than his career mark of 73.6
13. Alejandro De Aza spends the entire year with the Mets
14. Matt Harvey wins 20 games
15. Mets win 93 games
The goal, as always, is to finish with more right than wrong.
Wow definitely a lot of shockers in there and I hope most of them are wrong!
Ok on re-read I take that back, only 5 I think would not be great if you are right
i have them at 94 wins. I hope it is enough.
Going back to 2000, last year was the only year where 94 games wouldn’t have gotten an NL team a wild card berth. Six times in that span it would have been enough for NL East title.
James Preller, I went back and saw your 2015 prediction on Matt Harvey. You get bonus points but retrospectively I wish you were wrong after Game #5.
Brian, a very interesting conglomeration of unique predictions. I am on board with Duda’s 100 RBI’s, Colon pitching less than 100 innings, the Mets beating the Cubs and Pirates, and Lagares exceeding a .750 OPS.
My own two cents worth; by the end of the season, Syndergaard will emerge as the ace of the staff and Conforto will be their best offensive player.
The Mets will defend their Division Championship, National League Pennant and this time win the World Series going 94-68 on the year.
Brian,
I was going to dump on your Eric Campbell OBP prediction (since I am as anti-Eric as one can be) but in looking at his minor league stats I see he was an on base machine. Maybe if his liners dunk in more this season he could get to a .350 OBP.
Hopefully he gets on 35 times in 100 plate appearances because if his PAs number much higher than that the team’s likely in trouble.
Campbell’s BB% and K% last year were much more in line with what he’s done in the minors. He underperformed in both categories in the majors in 2014. I guess you could say he had such success swinging the bat in ’14 that he was perhaps more aggressive than normal.
I don’t think he’s going to repeat ’14’s .348 BABIP but I don’t think he’s going to repeat last year’s .230, either.
Some quicky bold ones.
1. Asdrubral Cabrera finishes with a higher OPS than Cespedes
2. Granderson has a lower OPS than Cuddyer did last year
3. deGrom has a higher ERA than Jon Niese
4. Reed and Bastardo are non-factors at the end of the year
5. Wheeler finishes with 0 wins.
6. Fans stop obsessing over Wright’s health
7. TC is fired.
8. Alderson is fired!!!
and a bonus one…
Chris F resigns permanently as mayor of panic city
One day in and prediction number 6 is already a fail
I’m on board for Harvey and 20 W’s but sometimes the way the team plays behind him makes me think of Ron Darling in his prime. In ’86 Darling was their best pitcher (team won 25 of his starts) but you’d never know it because blown saves and a lack of run support kept sticking him with NDs and he only finished with 15 wins.