It was right about…here.
Last year, the Mets’ season teetered on the edge of .500 in mid-July. After losing four-of six against the St. Louis Cardinals and division rival Washington Nationals – the very team they were chasing – their record stood at 49-46, three games behind. They then dropped the first two of a four-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at home. The offense was putrid, the pitching stellar, but indications were encouraging enough that GM Sandy Alderson was convinced to bring in reinforcements. Once he did so, from July 24 through the end of the season, the Mets went 41-24 and blew by Washington with relative ease.
This year, as of this writing, the Mets find themselves with a better record, but in worse shape. After dropping the rubber game of a series with the Cubs in Chicago, their record is 50-43. The offense is putrid, the pitching above-average. The difference here is that right now, they’re in third place, with a six-and-a-half game deficit to Washington that looks like a chasm. Now, we all know that 2016 ain’t 2015 and it’s a fool’s game to try and compare the two. But this fool is going to, anyway.
There are a number of reasons why the outlook appears darker than at this time last year. On the Mets’ side, injuries have swept through the clubhouse like the Black Plague. A team that loses a David Wright and a Matt Harvey – two key cogs to last year’s success, on the field and in the room – for the entire season will feel crippled. Were either of those two guys producing at an elite level when they went down? Not even a little bit, but they were two of the three most identifiable of the 2015 NL Champs. The third, Daniel Murphy, is now plying his trade in Washington and playing the game like an MVP. Speaking of what’s going on in Washington, they look a lot different than last year, too. They have a good manager this time around. Their clubhouse appears free of the chaos that dogged it last year – Murphy might have a little something to do with that, as well – and they have the look of a champion.
In any case, back here in New York, there’s little hope that an offensive shot in the arm is coming. After all, with the team hitting similarly to last season, Alderson can’t go out and trade for Yoenis Cespedes and Kelly Johnson again: they’re already here. No. The major acquisitions will probably be minor bullpen arms. It’s looking more and more that the Mets are going to have to dance with who brung ‘em and hope nobody else on the pitching staff gets hurt. They’re heading into Miami for what shapes up to be a crucial series with the second-place Marlins.
If this team is going to fire their engines this year, it had better start now.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
I’m ready to support a move to re-balance this roster.
I don’t believe it makes sense to “Bank a draft pick” on the bet that Walker will turn down a QO. This team has a 2-3 year pitching Window, assuming return top health and splendor—–get a 2-5 year “Piece” Now….and start moving your go-forward guys ahead…Herrera, Cheech, Flores
OF– Does Grandy have Value?— get lego in CF….CES is LF, and Conforto in RF— test your high level MILB guys—Taijeron, Nimmo
Trade Ces for a Boat Load? …and re-sign him in December?
Loney?—anything?…Duda?
This is not a bail on the year, but the roster needs help now and forward.
I’m not sure I understand this comment. It’s a little vague (and it does sound an awful like bailing on the season).
What kind of “piece” are you looking to add, besides 3-4 unproven (and not highly ranked) minor leaguers?
I’m not sure what you are advocating beyond trying to dump Granderson, who has been the Mets second-most productive hitter this season.
One thing you might be implying — which I’d agree with — is that this team does not appear to be worthy of a “go for it” type deal, where they cast off quality prospects for short-term help (another starter, say). I just don’t think the system can afford to lose much, nor do I think they possess the chips to compete in the trade market for any kind of quality player. Other teams have farm systems that are much, much more stocked than the Mets. (Sandy has really failed here, even when it was clear that he wasn’t trying to win at the ML level for the first four years of his tenure. He’s admitted that it wasn’t “a priority.”)
One guy I could see the Mets trading, maybe, is Herrera. But for what? Does he even have much value?
I think SA understands all of this, and that we’ll see a quiet deadline. But you never know.
id prefer they deal vets…. I’d rather exchange them for guys who are near ready
Off-Topic: Maybe this is a question best-suited for Dave. I’m wondering about Dominic Smith. 12 HRs this season is impressive, in the sense that it directly addresses a perceived flaw in his game. His previous career high was 6. So that’s good!
And yet.
Just last week I came across yet another comment that expressed continued concerns about his fitness. If true, I find that troubling.
According to a minor league stats source, he stands 6-0 and lists at 250.
Is this just a kid who doesn’t know how to eat right? How could the organization allow this situation to persist? Does he lack commitment, focus, brains? Conditioning should not be an issue with a 21-year-old athlete. Big red flag.
Or is it that these concerns are overblown, and not Smith himself?
I hope it’s not what I’m afraid it might be…
Jimmy…I prefer to think that all ballplayers should look like Greek Gods—but I’ve played on teams…coached teams…watched teams with guys who had “bad bodies”…many of them great players.
Smith will be “A Fat Lazy Pig” when he slumps…hopefully, a Plump but productive player if and when he hits.
Sell sell sell
Whatever pieces can be moved. Flores, Lagares, Ces (if possible), Walker.
I mean its hard to find what next year looks like with the presonnel we have.
Flores. If he was meant to be a full time play, he would be. He cannot play a position on the field. Move him.
Lagares. I watched Grandy play center with Lagares on the bench. Somehting is wildly wrong with that. Move Lagares.
Walker. Hes a rental. If someone sees enough in the D and power, then move him.
TdA. Hes a catcher that cant throw, always hurt, and who knows with the bat. Probably cant be moved, but hes no Piazza.
Cabrera. great deal, built value. If hes moveable do so.
Nimmo. package if possible.
Forgive me, but this sounds insane to me. To what end? A new five-year plan? Everything must go?
And they are one game out of the Wild Card? Utter surrender? And what about the fans?
I am pretty disgusted by the notion. It’s not sporting and seems, I don’t know, petulant.
There is no chance this team is going anywhere. The rotation is falling apart. At some point you need to make real decisions. The Mets will never win the Division, and already are on the outside looking in for the wildcard. This season is over.
To wit:
Ces is sub 100%, and wants to abandon the position we need him at
There is no centerfielder.
No one on the team is hitting .300, and there are no reinforcements coming
TdA cannot be counted on, and Rivera is the next in depth. Playoffs?
Walker is DOA on offense, although the dig the middle infield defense.
We have no 3Bman. Reyes is out of position and Flores cant do it. Campbell anyone?
Conforto is taking reps in CF. Conforto is taking reps in CF.
Conforto cannot hit.
The rotation is being held together by duct tape and bailing wire.
Worst offense in baseball.
This team is headed for 3rd place. Most of these folks wont be here next year, so what not start solving that problem now?
Wheeler back, Harvey back, The BoneSpur Twins fixed, Colon gone.
What am I missing here?
The Mets lineup is led by Cespedes and Granderson and followed by nine other professional hitters with TDA being the weak link. They inexplicably can’t hit with RISP. They are one game out of the playoff spot. They could use a RH outfield bat, another relief pitcher that slots in ahead of Robles and Blevins and possibly an insurance starter that is better than Lugo. July 21st, one game out, is not the time to be blowing this team up. Tweak the roster. Manage the lineup a little better. Hit with RISP.
Final point, take two from the Marlins this weekend.
Jose Reyes now has a .260-ish OBP leading off — every single game — for the Mets.
This is one of those Terry Collins blind spots. He decided what Jose’s role will be before he got here, plugged him into that critical spot before he earned it, and he hasn’t deviated from that fixed idea . . . despite the insolent facts.
Meanwhile, Wilmer Flores has 7 HRs in July in 41 ABs.
Look, I understand and appreciate that managers deal with real-world players and can’t over-react to daily events. They need to be patient, steady, consistent. But at the same time, TC has not demonstrated a deft handling of this roster.
For him, making out a lineup looks like drowning.
I don’t know that there’s a magic formula for getting the most out of this group, but let’s start at the top of the order: Jose isn’t getting it done, so therefore he doesn’t have to be there every single blessed game.
I liked Walker in the 2-hole, FWIW. I think he’s more that type of hitter.
The power that the Mets have gotten from their two corner infield pickups has been amazing.
Right now Reyes has a .298 ISO — what happens when that stops? We’ve already seen it with Loney, who after doing a David Ortiz imitation for two weeks has now gone 13 games with just one XBH. It’s going to happen with Reyes, too, even if not the extent that it has with Loney. Reyes certainly would have had a double on that ball to left Loney hit Wednesday.
It’s been three years since Reyes was a good leadoff option. He probably should be hitting 8th and given orders to let the pitcher walk him.
It’s all about the head to head.
The Mets are 4-9 against the Nats this year. They were 11-8 last year. If they were 6-7 instead of 4-9, the Mets would just be 2.5 games out.
Yes, this is true, re: head to head.
But that’s a result, not a process. It’s like saying, we didn’t win because we lost too many darn games.
Why are they losing to the Nationals? Well, Daniel Murphy is a pretty big reason, for starters. The failure of the offense is another. The collapse of Conforto, the devastating injury to Matt Harvey. And on and on.
At this point, I just feel like this group has to play better, and that we have to hope that the starting pitching can not only stay healthy, but perform at a very high level.
They’ve got a realistic shot of getting to Game 163. What are the Mets, something like 36-37 since the end of April? They need to roll off some victories at some point, and if really doesn’t matter against whom. I saw them as a 94-win team this year, expecting a Cy Young-quality season from Matt Harvey. Now I’m looking at a big game with Logan Verrett on the hill. Oh dear.
Last season I thought they had a shot at a World Series Championship. This year, I would not give them the same odds. In terms of likelihoods, I think they are more likely to miss the playoffs than to make it. But there are games to be played. That’s the fun part.
We shall see.
Let’s Go Mets.
So I agree with a lot of that, but also feel it is time to make a plan that considers all those things, and what is best for the team now and for the next 2 seasons when the rotation is assembled.
I find it very wrong to invest in a team that is sliding and so feel it is critical to plan for next season. Our chances of getting to the post season this season are far smaller than last year for a number of reasons. 1. We will not be bringing in a rescue squad in terms of hitters to save this offense. 2. The rotation, which must be impeccable for success, has for many reasons failed to deliver. Right now we have deGrom and Syndergaard. Past that its a mixed bag, with numbers for both Matz and Colon substantially heading the wrong way, making any chance they just turn it around seem unlikely. Verrett is filler. 3. Its not just head to head with the Nats — we are under .500 v the East. The Nats are 16 over .500 v the East.
So in that light, exactly what thread of post season hope are we aiming at that is worth hurting the next 2 years over? If we can bolster our chances by shedding some bench or rental types for someone that could impact the big league team soon, I think it is well worth it.On the present .500 track the team is on, we are looking at 84 wins. If both the Nats and Marlins improve dramatically (acquiring Chapman or Miller or whomever) by the deadline, while we look for an innings eater and 7th inning help, 84 may be stretch.
Reality needs to overthrow hope.
In terms of the lineup, it’s on Terry to play the hot hands. The depth is there. Pitching wise we could use a reinforcement or two. Too many remaining games against the Nats and Marlins to give up on this season.