In baseball’s traditional setup, non-catcher division, you had your speed guys up the middle and your power guys at the corners. The Mets have essentially punted speed but they certainly expected to get power from Lucas Duda and David Wright at the infield corners. And more or less they did. But now both of those players are on the DL and the Mets went dumpster diving for their replacements.
Generally, guys you can pick up for a song midseason are not very good. If they were good, someone would have gobbled them up before June. Sure, maybe you get someone with a well-timed BABIP streak and you get someone who contributes with singles. But the idea that you can get power midseason for free is almost laughable.
Yet, that’s exactly what the Mets have done. They certainly didn’t intend for it to work out this way but they’ve got to be thrilled with the results. In over 5,000 PA in the majors prior to this year, James Loney had a .126 lifetime ISO. Last year he posted a .077 ISO. After 170 PA this year, he carries a .147 mark. In over 7,000 PA in the majors previously, Jose Reyes had a .141 ISO and last year he posted a .104 mark in the category. This year he has a remarkable .298 ISO.
When he first came up, Loney showed some extra base promise. But he never really delivered on it, generally falling 50 to 75 points shy of the .206 ISO he posted in his first extended playing time in 2007. What he’s done so far is a surprise because of his track record in the majors. If you just looked at him, you wouldn’t be shocked to hear he was a 20-HR guy. Yet his MLB high was the 15 he hit in 375 PA back in ’07.
No one would ever expect power from Reyes. Sure, you’d expect him to hit some doubles and triples because of his speed. But his swing never really cried out home run hitter. Yet here he is with 3 HR in his first 47 ABs this year. And it’s not just homers, as seven of Reyes’ 10 hits have gone for extra bases.
The Mets got both guys figuring they would help their all-or-nothing offense. They hoped Reyes would be a catalyst at the top of the lineup and they hoped Loney would deliver timely hits to help their woeful RISP performance. Meanwhile, Reyes has been pretty much a bust as a leadoff guy, with just a .269 OBP and has scored just four runs in 12 games without the aid of a homer. And Loney has hit singles about as well as expected but they haven’t been clutch and he holds a negative WPA.
However, to this point, they’ve been offensive assets because of their power.
The big question for the Mets going forward is if these two guys can keep it up. In his last 13 games, Loney has delivered just one extra base hit, a double on July 15. And after contributing five XBH in his first six games, Reyes has produced two in his last six games. That would be a good rate if he was getting on base at a regular clip. But he’s batting just .174 and has a .231 OBP in that admittedly tiny sample.
Reyes has batted exclusively at leadoff while Loney has hit anywhere from third to seventh in the order. In his last 21 games, he’s batted fourth or fifth 20 times. We want Reyes to be the dynamic leadoff guy we remember from his first stint with the club but that guy no longer exists. In reality, he should be batting eighth or ninth and given instructions to take as many pitches and draw as many walks as possible.
Loney should be batting just above Reyes. It may not be ideal to have someone as slow as Loney potentially keeping Reyes from legging out a triple by already being on first base. But a Loney single followed by a Reyes walk could give the pitchers a chance to sacrifice and put two guys in scoring position. You know, assuming those guys could bunt.
What were your expectations of Reyes batting lead-off after an extensive lay-off? Did you think he would dominate from day 1? The combined addition of Reyes & Loney provides this ball club with speed, bat contact, and unexpected occasional power.
Reyes is one or two hot streaks from hovering around .280 -.300 ave., and he is likely to find his way to home plate more than anyone else in the Met organization. Hopefully, Kevin Long can help Loney use his lower body to generate more power to his swing. Otherwise, Loney has shown the ability to hit good pitching.
Their defense has really solidified the Met infield, as demonstrated by the 5-4-3 game-ending double-play versus the Cubs. In all, I think Reyes & Loney have been more part of the solution than the problem. Guys like Conforto, TDA, Walker & Cabrera need to contribute more consistently if we are to remain competitive down the stretch.
My expectations were not high. I was not in favor of the move and I thought they rushed him to the majors.
I think your second graph is optimistic.
Reyes’ defense at 3B has been a pleasant surprise. He has some rough edges but given he’s learning the position on the fly, he’s been good. No doubt that up until now, Reyes & Loney have been “solution” players. My take is they will not be so going forward.
That’s why they have Flores waiting in the wings!
Loney has held down the fort in the absence of Duda.His overall OPS of 767 is respectable. His 792 OPS vs RHP is even more solid. Flores has a total OPS of 796 and is really mashing LHP to the tune of 1.094. He is substandard vs RHP at 661 OPS. Loney and Flores make a good platoon.
Reyes has a 780 OPS driven by his slugging pct. He also has been mashing LHP this year. In his career Reyes does not have a platoon split and hits from both sides equally. Fifty two at bats is not enough to judge Reyes. I did not expect him to play everyday with a hot hitting Kelly Johnson on the bench.
Third base is a problem going forward for the Mets and I don’t see Reyes as the permanent solution. I see Reyes as the utility infielder in 2017.
Chisox are open to dealing veteran bats. At what cost can the Mets get Todd Frazier or Nate Jones?