We’ve certainly had our share of surprises this week and it’s only Thursday. Was there some sort of political even earlier? I kid…I kid… That was a momentous event, no matter what your leanings are, a seismic shift in politics-as-usual. Not to draw any kind of comparison – there is none – but we are entering the season of surprises for Major League Baseball, too. The hot stove has just gotten its first touch of kindling. It won’t be warming our winter for about another month. Heck, they still haven’t gotten the champagne stains out of the carpet in the Cubs’ locker room in Cleveland yet. So it’s way early in the offseason. But already, we Met fans seem to be bracing ourselves for the departure of star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes though the free agent door. He’s already opted out of his contract, already received a Qualifying Offer from the Mets, which he is expected to reject when the time comes. After that? It’s anybody’s guess.
Remember this time last year? We were convinced he was a goner. Last year’s World Series ended on November 1, and he exercised his right to free agency immediately. And so we thought, “Nice knowing ya, Yo. Thanks for getting us there.” We geared ourselves up to say goodbye in very short order. November passed. He was still here. December and the Winter Meetings came and went without his name on a contract bearing anybody’s letterhead. There were a whole bunch of places we thought he was going. Then, on the eve of spring training, GM Sandy Alderson announced that Cespedes would be coming back, having signed a creative, complex contract – four years long, but provided with an opt-out clause after one. So, in effect, it became a one-year deal. Everyone said Alderson performed a miracle, that there were other, better offers out there and somehow, he’d convinced Cespedes to stay. For his part, Cespedes had his typical season and the Mets returned to the playoffs. Everybody’s been happy with that. And now, we get to go through it again, though Alderson has stated, “We won’t wait as long as we did last year.” Here’s hoping.
There’s been talk that the early front-runners are the Yankees. There are a whole lot of reasons why this doesn’t make sense: the team is young and trying to get younger, they’re overloaded with outfielders, they need defense more than more power. His going there would fit the historical Yankee narrative, though, in three ways: 1 – the Yankees have money to burn, 2 – Cespedes is the shiniest toy on the shelf and 3 – they’d be “taking” him from the Mets, though this hasn’t been as big a factor since George Steinbrenner died. But you know, the usual suspects will be bandied about, probably the same crew as last year. From over here, I’m expecting Alderson to get creative again. There is confidence that he can pull another Jedi mind trick and secure Cespedes’s services for at least another year. Cespedes is 30, going on 31. There will come a point where he’ll decide to forego some up-front cash in exchange for security – years over dollars – and he’ll be ready for a deal with no opt-out.
Is this the year for that? Sandy Alderson is about to find out.
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I’m cautiously optimistic. He wants to be here. The fans have embraced him. We need him and ownership and management recognize his value. I think the key is to stroke his ego with the big annual salary that makes him one of the highest paid position players, but to not go beyond four years. I hope the Mets never give out one of those contracts like Cabrera, Votto, Pujols got. Unless you’re the Yankees or Dodgers, those contracts become crippling.
I think that a west coast team will make a big offer and overpay for him.
As with any free agent, even one that fits our needs so well, there’s a line I wouldn’t cross.
We all have our own definitions of where that line might be.
My feeling is that Sandy would comfortably go, say, 4/$110.
But I think the Giants and Dodgers and others would do that too.
I’d go the 5th year. Though I’m sure that Sandy try to build various opt-outs into it.
The hope is that the Mets offer is strong enough that Yoenis agrees to it, even though there may be more money elsewhere.
Can we really bear to see him playing with the Nationals?
Nice call, James! You nailed it!
4-110 would not even receive a Participation Certificate
He’s gonna get 5 years.. 140-155, and it may include Team and Players options.
He likes being King of NY….he’s on a team on a Run, and he can be a Gigantic Star. He will Return.
Eraff, wow! You expect as much as $31MM per year into his age 36 season? I can see the five year offer, but don’t forget, he isn’t an MVP player but he is a candidate. The $31MM per year for five years seems to be for Harper or Trout-type players that are younger.
Last year, the Diamondbacks gave Grienke $34MM per year into his mid 30’s when no one else would give more than $27MM. But, the Diamondbacks felt they needed to have him and blew passed Kershaw’s $31MM per year, and was one of the reasons that now their GM is out of a job and other teams are expecting them to move Greinke. If I were a GM, I would worry about offering that much money to a player for his age 35 and 36 seasons. It could hamstring my budget and possibly give the team a fairly large negative return.
I expect an average of 28/per…and I have previously posted a specific idea on a contract that includes player option after 3, team option after 4. The plan will make hi richly paid over a long time period, with an opportunity to opt out young enough for a booster deal—and with an escape option for the team at 4 years. It builds and expands on his last deal