Below we have destinations and contract terms for 15 free agents. None of us claim to be experts on the subject – some claim a lack of expertise here more vociferously than others – so the last thing you should do is use this as a betting guide. Instead this is an opportunity for us to discuss guys who will be in the news and who may or may not be linked to the Mets. It’s supposed to be a fun exercise and not dissected or graded, so please keep that in mind. Our participants are Joe Barbieri, John Fox, David Groveman, Charlie Hangley, Brian Joura, Matt Netter, Larry Smith, Mike Walczak and Chris Walendin.

Yoenis Cespedes Team Years Salary
Barbieri Yankees 6 $140
Fox Dodgers 3 $75
Groveman   5 $125
Hangley Mets 4 $120
Joura Giants 6 $130
Netter Mets 4 $118
Smith Mets 4 $112
Walczak Dodgers 4 $112
Walendin Giants 5 $130
Edwin Encarnacion Team Years Salary
Barbieri Orioles 4 $90
Fox Red Sox 3 $40
Groveman   3 $60
Hangley Tigers 4 $96
Joura Red Sox 4 $105
Netter Blue Jays 5 $130
Smith Red Sox 3 $74
Walczak Red Sox 5 $135
Walendin Orioles 5 $122
Josh Reddick Team Years Salary
Barbieri Indians 4 $32
Fox Dodgers 5 $50
Groveman   5 $75
Hangley Indians 2 $35
Joura Indians 3 $36
Netter Nationals 3 $42
Smith Astros 4 $60
Walczak Orioles 4 $68
Walendin Dodgers 3 $33
Aroldis Chapman Team Years Salary
Barbieri Yankees 4 $65
Fox Nationals 4 $60
Groveman   4 $100
Hangley Yankees 4 $130
Joura Yankees 4 $90
Netter Cubs 4 $68
Smith Yankees 4 $56
Walczak Nationals 4 $60
Walendin Yankees 4 $80
Kenley Jansen Team Years Salary
Barbieri Dodgers 3 $48
Fox Cubs 5 $60
Groveman   5 $100
Hangley Astros 2 $60
Joura Cubs 4 $72
Netter Dodgers 4 $64
Smith Dodgers 4 $70
Walczak Cubs 4 $62
Walendin Dodgers 4 $75
Ian Desmond Team Years Salary
Barbieri Angles 5 $85
Fox Rangers 1 $17.20
Groveman   5 $100
Hangley Rangers 5 $95
Joura Cubs 3 $50
Netter Rangers 4 $72
Smith Rangers 3 $57
Walczak Rangers 4 $80
Walendin Mariners 5 $70
Jose Bautista Team Years Salary
Barbieri Mets 3 $27
Fox      
Groveman   4 $100
Hangley Rockies 3 $75
Joura Mariners 3 $55
Netter Red Sox 2 $40
Smith Giants 3 $60
Walczak Indians 3 $63
Walendin Nationals 3 $42
Wilson Ramos Team Years Salary
Barbieri Tigers 2 $28
Fox Royals 1 $6
Groveman   3 $60
Hangley Mets 2 $35
Joura Astros 3 $40
Netter Orioles 4 $72
Smith Orioles 3 $33
Walczak Orioles 4 $76
Walendin Astros 2 $26
Mark Trumbo Team Years Salary
Barbieri Mariners 4 $70
Fox Orioles 3 $30
Groveman   5 $100
Hangley Orioles 7 $147
Joura Orioles 5 $80
Netter Orioles 4 $84
Smith Orioles 3 $45
Walczak Blue Jays 3 $54
Walendin Red Sox 3 $45
Dexter Fowler Team Years Salary
Barbieri Nationals 3 $42
Fox Mets 5 $40
Groveman   5 $75
Hangley Cubs 4 $100
Joura Mets 4 $56
Netter Giants 3 $45
Smith Nationals 3 $45
Walczak Mets 3 $48
Walendin Blue Jays 4 $70
Neil Walker Team Years Salary
Barbieri Dodgers 3 $51
Fox Mets 1 $17.20
Groveman   2 $30
Hangley Pirates 2 $36
Joura Mets 1 $17.20
Netter Angels 4 $72
Smith Mets 2 $36
Walczak Angels 3 $42
Walendin Mets 1 $17.20
Justin Turner Team Years Salary
Barbieri Brewers 4 $65
Fox Dodgers 4 $60
Groveman   3 $60
Hangley Mariners 4 $72
Joura Dodgers 4 $70
Netter Dodgers 4 $68
Smith Dodgers 3 $45
Walczak Giants 3 $51
Walendin Dodgers 5 $80
Michael Saunders Team Years Salary
Barbieri A’s 2 $12
Fox      
Groveman   2 $20
Hangley Blue Jays 2 $50
Joura Blue Jays 3 $39
Netter Mariners 5 $80
Smith Mariners 3 $30
Walczak Rays 3 $34
Walendin A’s 3 $36
Rich Hill Team Years Salary
Barbieri Red Sox 2 $32
Fox Cardinals 2 $20
Groveman   3 $45
Hangley Royals 1 $15
Joura Orioles 3 $45
Netter Red Sox 3 $48
Smith Yankees 3 $50
Walczak Rangers 3 $42
Walendin Angels 4 $60
Bartolo Colon Team Years Salary
Barbieri Marlins 1 $8
Fox Marlins 2 $12
Groveman   1 $15
Hangley Nationals 2 $35
Joura Phillies 2 $18
Netter Mets 1 $7
Smith Mets 1 $9
Walczak Mets 1 $9
Walendin Indians 1 $10

43 comments on “Potential landing spots for 15 free agents in the 2016-17 class”

  • Brian Joura

    Two thoughts:

    Has a reliever ever gotten a $100 million deal? I can see one this time, with the quality of relievers and the number of teams with money chasing them.

    I thought I was going to be the only one to have Walker taking the QO and then two others did the same thing. Oh well

    • Chris F

      I dont think so Brian, but they were talking about it on the radio this afternoon.

    • MattyMets

      Jansen and Chapman are about to hit the jackpot. Not only are they stars in their prime at a time when closers are considered more valuable than ever, but seemingly all the big market teams will be competing for their services – Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs, Giants, Yankees and I’m not sure I’d rule out the Red Sox.

      I think both are likely to shatter the per season salary record for a closer, but a team would have to be nuts to give a closer a 6+ year deal.

  • Name

    4/130 for Chapman… Will that be paid like 5 mil in the first 4 seasons and then 1 mil for the next 110 years?

    I believe highest reliever salary ever is 15 mil and the highest for 2017 at the moment will be Kimbrel at 13.25 mil. Both numbers will be beat, but 20 mil+ for a 60 IP pitcher? I know GMs are idiots when it comes to relievers, but even i’m skeptical they are that stupid

  • TexasGusCC

    IMO, here won’t be any deals longer than five years, and I expect four years to be the norm).
    For kicks and giggles, here are my thoughts:

    Cespedes: Mets 3/90
    Encarnacion: Orioles 3/60
    Reddick: Toronto 2/30
    Chapman: Yankees 4/70
    Jansen: Astros 5/90 (Added a 5th year to overcome the Cubs who already lost Chapman)
    Desmond: Orioles 4/80
    Bautista: Blue Jays 3/45
    Ramos: Angels 1/12
    Trumbo: Mariners 3/60
    Fowler: Indians 3/40
    Walker: Mets 2/30
    Turner: Dodgers 4/72
    Saunders: Giants 2/24
    Hill: Red Sox 4/60
    Colon: Astros 2/14

  • Jim OMalley

    I didnt submit because I couldn’t get past Cespedes and Waljer returning to the Mets.

  • Brian Joura

    Jose Bautista’s an interesting case as a fallback option for the Mets. Of course you have to be comfortable with some combination of Conforto/Granderson/Lagares manning CF but his righty power bat could be a nice addition if it’s a short deal.

  • Peter F. Hyatt

    I think the Nationals may be aggressive for Chapman.

    No American League teams for Cespedes besides the Yankees? I think with his legs that some will consider him as LF/DH possibility at 3 years, $90 mil.

    • Brian Joura

      Which AL teams are fits that can afford him? If the Blue Jays lose all of their free agents, that’s a possibility.

  • Brian Joura

    Colon to the Braves on a 1/$12.5 million deal. The only NL East club we didn’t have him going to.

    • MattyMets

      Braves also got Dickey. Might they also go after Dillon Gee?

      • Larry Smith

        There’s always Mike Pelfrey if you need an innings eater who can deliver a 5.5 ERA

    • Name

      Niese and Gee are probably next for them.

      Can’t wait for the Mets to beat up on him

  • Brian Joura

    Walker took the QO, meaning I won’t get shut out on this thing

  • Brian Joura

    Reddick to the Astros on 4/$52. Larry got the team right.

  • Brian Joura

    Cespedes to Mets on 4/$110. Three guys had the Mets and Larry came within $2 million on the total value.

  • Brian Joura

    Hill to the Dodgers on 3/$48. No one got the team right but Matt was right on the money with the terms.

    • Name

      A horrific deal for a guy who averages less than 6 innings a start and can never stay healthy, yet he’s getting #2 money

      • Chris F

        i think this very thing is the classic detachment of value scored by WAR (or pick any metric you want) and value offered in $.

      • Jimmy P

        Since the end of 2007 season, he’s thrown about 300 IP.

        Total.

        Hill will be 37 at start of season.

        But he’s a lefty, and he was very good for 110 IP in 2016.

        It’s a crazy marketplace.

        The Dodgers really rolled the dice on this guy.

        • Name

          He was “very good for 110IP” per ERA but was he really? Consider the fact that he got just 13 outs in the 7th inning or late all year thru 19 starts. Compare that with Jon Niese who in 18 starts got 9 outs past the 6th. And Kershaw thru 21 starts? He got 81 outs in the latter 3rd of the game.
          Yes Rich Hill was very effective when he was on the mound, but he wasn’t on there very long. His “effectiveness” was partly a result of him leaving the job unfinished and letting others clean up the mess.

          We’re all clamoring and lamenting that SPs don’t go deep enough into games, yet we keep rewarding guys who don’t do it and attempting to make super bullpens. If the trend continues, we won’t be signing starters anymore, instead, they should just be called Prepers because they get the job started but never come close to finishing.

          What sabermetrics desperately needs is a stat that tries to combine effectiveness with workload.
          If you’re wondering if WAR does that, it doesn’t. If you’re a pitcher who pitches 100 innings and has a 3.00 ERA, it doesn’t matter if you do that in 20 starts or 30 starts, you’ll get the same exact WAR.

          • Metsense

            I agree whole hardheartedly with your comment Name. The weak point on most teams is the middle relief. A starter that can get outs in the seventh inning saves a team from exposing their weak underbelly and is more cost effective also.

  • Name

    Finally a realistic deal!

    Ramos to the Rays for 2/12.5.

    Guess Fox is the winner, who was the only guy to have an AAV of less than $11 mil.

    • Brian Joura

      The MLBTR story said there was $18.25 million in incentives, too.

      • Name

        It said incentives up that would push the contract up to 18.25 million in total.

        My guess is the injury is a lot worse than reported otherwise it makes more sense to sign a 1 year deal.

  • Brian Joura

    Ian Desmond to the Rockies for 5/$70. No one had the team but Chris Walendin had the terms exactly.

    The Rockies plan to use the former SS, former OF at … 1B!

    • Name

      A real head scratcher…

  • Brian Joura

    Chapman to the Yankees – 5/$86. Four of us had the right team but no one had the terms.

  • Brian Joura

    Fowler to the Cardinals on a 5/$82.5 contract with a full no-trade clause. No one came close on this one.

    • NormE

      Well, let’s give David some credit: He had the number of years correct, and he didn’t pick the wrong team. That was better than anyone else.

    • Name

      Rare mistake by the Cards. Good luck getting 120 starts a year from him.

      • Chris F

        Joe Maddon on Dexter Fowler: “As you go, we go” – all the way to a championship.

        Why so down on Fowler?

        • Name

          Because of his inability to play a full season.

          That’s a reasonable price to pay him if he’s able to give you 150 starts, which he’s done just once in his career.

  • Name

    Jansen back to the Dodgers for 5 years/80 mil

    I’m rooting for Chapman/Jansen/Melancon to all bust so that future teams can learn a lesson that no 60 IP pitcher is ever worth multi year 15+ mil deals.

    • Brian Joura

      On a somewhat related note — who do the Nats use as their closer now? Is it Shawn Kelley or do they make a move to get a more established guy?

      • Jimmy P

        This could be another case where a team actually benefits from not realizing their Plan A on the free agent market.

        The closer money has gotten stupid. I’d go after 2-3 solid late-inning guys for the same money.

        Or better yet, try like hell to bring relievers up through the system.

        I’m curious to see what Trumbo gets from the O’s. I think he’s Jay Bruce.

        • Brian Joura

          Agreed.

          There’s no reason Kelley couldn’t be the guy to get outs in the ninth inning. But there’s such a mythology built up and a guy like Chapman will get so much more rope with a bad outing or two than a guy like Kelley.

          But with Kelley and Treinen, they’ve got the beginnings of a solid bullpen. I thought Koda Glover was in that class, too, but his overall numbers were worse than I remembered.

  • Name

    Turner back to the Dodgers at 4/64. A lot of people were close.

    I thought he was going to get more in terms of AAV, but while he’s been very good, he hasn’t truly proven durability with last year being his first time he’s started more than 100 games in a season.

    • Chris F

      dont forget the luxury tax on his and jansen’s salary now. They are paying a lot more than that!

  • Name

    E5 gets 3/65 from the Indians. Will Bautista even get 2 years?

    Trumbo also looks to be in deep trouble too if the Orioles really have pulled their original offer off the table.

    Death to the DH!!

  • Name

    It’s mid-January, the bottom is starting to drop in FA, and we’re likely going to see a lot of disappointments from now on.

    Saunders drops to a paltry 1/9 plus a club option. It’s no wonder why Alderson is struggling with Bruce.

    Random thought, but 3 years for Blevins always seemed bogus for me. He’ll likely have to settle for 1 year + club option as well. But i hope someone else signs him as i’d rather have Edgin.

  • Brian Joura

    Bautista 1/$18 – No one close to right on terms and no one with the right team.

    As for Blevins, my feeling is that he ends up with two guaranteed years.

  • Brian Joura

    Last man standing was Mark Trumbo, who signed a 3/$37.5 deal to return to Baltimore. Most of us had him going back to the Orioles, but using Price is Right rules, John came the closest.

    Hopefully we’ll see a resolution soon now with Bruce.

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