If our rotation is healthy and as awesome as we’ve all been dreaming about, we don’t need a Big Red Machine lineup to make the playoffs – just a good enough offense to consistently put three or four runs on the board each game. However the offseason shakes out, the Mets should wind up with a lineup and bench that is at least average and possibly pretty good. It’s hard to say what the Mets 2017 lineup will look like with any certainty until we know if our best hitter is coming back, our captain is healthy, or if Jay Bruce is returning, but ’tis the season for speculation, so let’s take a crack at considering some possibilities.
Scenario A (Cespedes returns, Jay Bruce is traded and Wright is healthy):
vs. right-handed pitchers:
- Curtis Granderson
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Neil Walker
- Lucas Duda
- David Wright
- Michael Conforto
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera
vs. left-handed pitchers:
- Curtis Granderson
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Neil Walker
- Wilmer Flores
- David Wright
- Juan Lagares
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Duda, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera
Scenario B (Cespedes returns, but Wright is on the DL)
vs. right-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Neil Walker
- Lucas Duda
- Curtis Granderson
- Michael Conforto
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, TJ Rivera, Rene Rivera
vs. left-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Neil Walker
- Wilmer Flores
- Curtis Granderson
- Juan Lagares
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Duda, TJ Rivera, Rene Rivera
Scenario C (Cespedes does not return, Wright is healthy, Bruce stays)
vs. right-handed pitchers:
- Curtis Granderson
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Jay Bruce
- Lucas Duda
- David Wright
- Michael Conforto
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera
vs. left-handed pitchers:
- Curtis Granderson
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Wilmer Flores
- David Wright
- Jay Bruce
- Juan Lagares
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Duda, Jose Reyes, Rene Rivera
Scenario D (Cespedes does not return, Wright is not healthy, Bruce is traded, a big free agent bat is added)
vs. right-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Jose Bautista
- Curtis Granderson
- Lucas Duda
- Michael Conforto
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores, Rene Rivera, TJ Rivera
vs. left-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Jose Bautista
- Curtis Granderson
- Wilmer Flores
- Juan Lagares
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Duda, Rene Rivera, TJ Rivera
Scenario E (Cespedes does not return, Wright is not healthy, Bruce is traded, a minor free agent bat is added)
vs. right-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Curtis Granderson
- Lucas Duda
- Michael Conforto
- Brandon Nimmo
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Juan Lagares, Wilmer Flores, Rene Rivera, TJ Rivera, Steve Pearce
vs. left-handed pitchers:
- Jose Reyes
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Neil Walker
- Wilmer Flores
- Curtis Granderson
- Steve Pearce
- Juan Lagares
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Pitcher
Bench: Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Lucas Duda, Rene Rivera, TJ Rivera
Matt, based on last few years’ production, without looking at only last year, here’s the problem without Cespedes:
Duda is a #6 guy or #5 at best.
Walker is a #5 guy and #4 at best.
Cabrera is a #7 guy, that gets put at #2.
Wright is now a #6 guy that you can put at #2.
Reyes is a #1 or #2 hitter.
Granderson is a #6 hitter, #5 at best.
Lagares is a # 6/7 and Nimmo is a #1/2.
Bruce is a #5 hitter and #4 at best.
My point is that there is no other #3 hitter on this team. For me a #3 hitter on a winning team is a .290-.300/25-30/100/100 guy. He needs to have speed to score 100, he needs to have power to bring in 100 and he needs to have batting average to keep the train moving. No other Met has these qualities.
The fallback could be Bautista, as he can be a pseudo #3, but he is really a #4 guy as he doesn’t have the speed. The most important thing is breaking up the collection of lefties accumulated that could make you falter offensively in the playoffs against good lefties, and teams in the playoffs didn’t get there by accident. They have good lefties.
Guys like cabrera were awful the entire year and only started to hit better once Cespedes started to protect them Also bruce and duda are garbage look how bad mets were with duda and bruce
You do realize Duda 2014-15 has the same OPS+/wRC as Cespedes 2015-16?
In what world is Walker a better hitter than Duda?
And Reyes hasn’t been a viable leadoff option since 2013..
Lineup construction is so overrated. A difference of 1 spot between doesn’t matter in the long run, and once in-game, ordering almost never matters. .
Name, logically, I can see your point about lineups not mattering, but here is what we have seen:
A. With the pitchers being automatic outs, having a leadoff hitter that can’t get out of his own way killed the run production last year when they had men on base. It became two automatic outs.
B. Having at least a decent distraction on the bases for the middle of the lineup is more important than stealing the bases because of the distraction caused to the pitcher. Just checking two players, Cespedes’ and Walker’s last three years, in the six seasons combined, five times they had better numbers with men on. Many times we have heard about dividing the pitcher’s attention between the hitter and the base stealer and that can only be a good thing.
I compared Cespedes to Duda and I was stunned! Why is it then that we hold Cespedes to such high acclaim and Duda to such low? I checked their clutch numbers: Bingo!! We see Duda getting on hot streaks and hitting those home runs up several runs, but Cespedes has been as clutch as any player in baseball over his career and certainly with the Mets. While we have memories of him choking against Bumgardner, Cespedes has been more of the reason the Mets have been to the playoffs in ’15 and ’16 than Any Single Player on their roster.
As I told Brian two weeks ago, there’s lies, damn lies, and stats. We watch every game, we know. There was a reason why there was a thought that the Mets would not tender Duda. You think if the Mets could tender Cespedes there’d be any question?
“Why is it then that we hold Cespedes to such high acclaim and Duda to such low?”
Because of the narrative and the fans “what have you done yesterday” attitude. It has nothing to do with clutchness.
We don’t remember Duda in 2014 because, the Mets weren’t relevant. Mind you, he had a 1.100 OPS in RISP this year. In 2015, he did much of his damage early in the year when the Mets were scuffling. And then he got hurt right when the Mets went their monster run in late August/early September. By the time he came back, the division was already decided even though he raked til the end of the year. Again, he had an excellent 812 OPS in RISP. And then in 2016 he was mostly hurt, so he was off our radar.
Basically, we remember Cespedes because he’s been “here” (not injured) during our good times while Duda hasn’t. Statistically, Cespedes is vastly overrated and totally replaceable.
ok, you win the Duda argument.
I keep like trying Name, I keep pulling Superman’s cape even though I know you bring info to the table…
😉
If Yo leaves, I don’t see them trading Bruce.
If yo leaves Mets will be a third or 4th place team
Flores might be key. Mark it down. 20homers-75 RBI as super sub.
This is the dumbest article Mets will finish in thrid or 4th place if they don’t have Cespedes
Mets had a full year of granderson duda and Lagares and wright and darnau and murphy in 2014 with the same era in 2014 as in 2015 and 2016 yet they finished under 500 in 2014 meaning Cespedes is the only real player on the team mensing mets are a65-70 win team if they don’t have Cespedes
Just because you say something four times doesn’t make it true.
Nick Carter – 1) a 65 -70 win team is the worst team in baseball like last season’s Twins. If the Mets rotation is healthy they win 80 games in the worst lineup scenario. 2) you were great in the Backstreet Boys.
l Mets had the third lowest era yet they would have finished with 65 wins this year if they didn’t have cespedes
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Another scenario and one I would lean toward if I were GM – if we lose Cespedes, I would still trade Bruce for bullpen help and then go after McCutcheon. There’s your #3 hitter. A package of Nimmo and Gsellman might not be enough but Conforto and Wheeler is probably too much. Something like that though.
I love Cutch, but his numbers from last year are very concerning.Would rather go after a Goldschmitt. (you never know)
If their pitching holds up, I don’t see that happening.
Eric, you raise a very interesting point, one that Matt did not include in his many variations.
On paper, the Mets starting pitching looks formidable. It looks good enough to mask some of the offensive deficiencies left by the leaving of Cespedes, perhaps.
But, I believe it is folly to think that this starting staff might remain healthy for a full season. Until proven otherwise, Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler and Matz, are all under a cloud. Even Syndergaard has a question about his arm.
The bullpen, without the possibly suspended Familia, might be short. Should Blevins leave that would be another negative.
I would love to see Cespedes re-signed. I would wish for Bruce to be packaged for help behind the plate or in the pen. But, just as much, I pray for a healthy pitching staff.
Cut the crap with “No- Yo” what ifs and sign the man alreay..!
This team was terrible with RISP and how will that improve without Cespedes ???
Really, all this pitching and no run support only spells trouble, tight games and late inning heartache all shouldered by the bullpen without Familia for who knows how many games ? Heck, Mets could be 10 games out by June if Familia has a 60 game ban.
The Nats will have Strasburg, Scherzer, Roark and now there are rumblings about C.Sale from the White Sox. Wake up Sandy, the Nats can match pitching with the Mets, and hit too. Harper will be better, Murph is Murph, and T. Turner is a young rising star. If Mets let them steal Cespedes (another reason to sign him is so Nats don’t), kiss good bye to the division and Mets are in for some hurt battling the rest of the division just for 2nd place. Do the Mets really want to waste another year of good pitching at low cost ?
Better sign Cespedes and the lineup is taken care of. Makes everyone better and bench strong. Saving Colon’s $7.5m, Bruce’s $13m, Kelly Johnson’s $1.5, Blevin’s $1.0 (he will get a better deal elsewhere) is $23m right there to pay Yo. Come on Mets, cut the Crap !
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If they signed Yo to a five year deal last year, he would have four years left and that’s what the Mets are willing to offer. Every day that goes by, I get more concerned that he will leave. They should wrap it up now. Give him the fifth year, because another GM will. The Dodgers and Giants concern me, because they have the money and are both winning teams.
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You can always trade Cespedes for a boatload of talent in two or three years, if that’s all you want from him.
This article is a realistic look at what is going to happen. If they don’t resign Ces, they are going to flounder. They may even flounder with him. Most of their hitters are mediocre at best. They have no speed and don’t get on base enough. It will be tough to score runs.
Other teams are making moves to improve and so far the Mets have done nothing. The NL leader on hits (segura) was picked up for Taijuan Walker who so far has proved nothing except that he has potential (sounds like Floyd Yoimans or David West). Sean Rodriguez signed with Tampa Bay for 5 mil. I’d rather have Rodriguez, Reyes or Rivera at second and spend the 17.2 mil that went to Walker on Fowler or another lead off hitter. So let’s see what happens at the winter meetings. Would love to see Ces resigned and trade Bruce for a good reliever.
Mike, Rodriguez went to Atlanta. He used to play on Tampa Bay and check his numbers: He sucks.
Walker was a very good player for several years and is an asset to this team, especially when Reyes will go to third. Rivera is Josh Satin reincarnated, check his history.
I agree on trading Bruce, but think a good power hitter should return more than just a reliever. Otherwise, give me two good prospects and resign Salas.
I want Yo back as much as anybody else. He makes our lineup better in ways that don’t show up in stats. That being said, even the best player in baseball in an MVP season has a 10 WAR. Cespedes’ career high was 6.3. No one player can make for a 30 game swing in a team’s record. The all-time highest single season WAR according to baseball reference was 14.1 in 1923 by Babe Ruth.
Fowler would address lead off issue, which is a concern.
Sandy is going to have to address the duplication of Duda, Bruce, Conforto and Granderson. I think two of them should go.
I still believe in Conforto.
One other point, as a fan: another season with a feeble offense will be boring to watch. I hope Sandy pushes hard toward excellence & entertainment. NL East Division or bust.
+1
The math is in there somewhere for the geniuses to figure out.
They get paid as well to figure out the budget, the revenues, etc, etc, however:
No Cespedes = no division title, possibly no playoffs. What does that cost ?
Not to mention the lack of butts in the seats if the team starts to flounder.
No Cespedes and one key injury to a position player on a squad known for injuries (Wright, d’Arnaud, Duda, Walker) and the bats will be silent, season will be in serious jeopardy.
Again, saving Colon’s $ and Bruce’s $ is about $20.5M right there…!
Come on Mets, stop the madness and bring home who the guy that has made a case for one of the best “all around” player in Mets history in such a short period.
Oh, and another point – Grandy’s $15m is coming off the books next year, as is likely Cabrera’s $7m, Duda’s $6m (Rosario & D.Smith probably ready in 2017).
You don’t have to be a genius to see the $$$ is there and will be there to get Cespedes inked. If it is down to 4yrs vs 5yrs, the choice is simple. Let’s go Santa Sandy, give the Mets fans their holiday gift already.
The pitching is the key to the Met success. The healthier it is then the better the Mets will be. I would prefer to sign Cespedes but if he should sign elsewhere then the team will still be good enough to make the playoffs without making any moves. In order to win the division, they will need to spend the Cespedes money wisely and also make a trade. The three offensive issues are: the imbalance of lefty hitting outfielders, the lack of production at the catcher position, and the age and durability at the third base position. There is also a new need for a late inning reliever for the back end of the bullpen. Without Cespedes, Alderson should be able to sign Weiters and Fowler and move Granderson or Bruce and still have money for the back end of the bullpen. Third base is too dicey to deal with.
Yes NormE, let’s us pray.
I found all the lineup possibilities fun to read but the bottom line is that we don’t make the playoffs without Yo and attendance will start to drop. Think Gary Carter and his dominance and his impact on other hitters on the ’86 team. Of course we don’t have a Strawberry or Hernandez caliber player as he did to sandwich around and protect his bat. We won that year with our bats not our starting pitching however strong our arms were. If, and it is a gigantic if, our pitchers are all healthy again, we won’t need to score a ton of runs, but need 4-5 runs again regardless. Too much pressure with each starter thinking he must put up zeros in order for the Mets to win. Again, back to the beginning – the Mets need the big bopper to give opposing teams the fear that one swing can change the game. Fingers crossed for a Cespedes reunion. They have the money. Just go 5 and $130M and get it done.
My problem with this whole line of thought comes down to those two word, “good enough.”
It’s not about the pursuit of excellence, which is what I want the Mets to achieve. I don’t care about good enough or meaningful games in September. I want to see this organization, under the Wilpons, to strive for excellence. To dream of being the best. It’s hard to compete when other organizations are reaching higher.
Sign Cespedes and Fowler. Trade for a catcher who can pair with d’Arnaud; trade for or sign another late-inning reliever. Add modest fill-in pieces as needed.
Anything else while you’re at it?