Timing, as they say, is everything.
Woke up this morning all prepared to pinch-hit for Charlie. However, my internet had other ideas. Three hours with brief periods of connectivity followed by extended stretches of unable to hold the signal. Called the cable company and they were working on things in my area. Good to know. But you could say the timing was less than ideal.
Neil Walker, on the other hand, has had mostly excellent timing here recently, injury aside. He had perhaps the best year of his career in the season before he hit free agency. Also, the Qualifying Offer (QO) was the highest it’s ever been, guaranteeing him more money on a one-year contract than 99 percent of all second basemen in the game.
Some wondered how the Mets could pay Walker that much money, offering up multi-year deals that others had signed for a much lower average annual value. But that’s an apples to oranges comparison. Let’s put everyone on equal footing. Let’s say that every team, individually, had to face the same question the Mets did this year with Walker, with their second baseman. Individually means that not all 30 second baseman would be free agents at the same time, thus depressing the market. But rather that each club would have to determine things based on the same situation facing the Mets.
With that as our scenario, here’s who I think would be offered the QO:
Jose Altuve
Robinson Cano
Brian Dozier
Ian Kinsler
Daniel Murphy
Dustin Pedroia
Jason Kipnis
Ben Zobrist
Walker
So, Walker would be one of nine people to get the QO. And you could certainly make cases for others, too. You might think D.J. LeMahieu or Jean Segura or Matt Carpenter or someone else is QO-worthy. That only makes the Walker decision even more understandable. It’s not that he’s the second or third-best guy at his position, as you might conclude by what he’ll be paid in 2017. It’s just that he had the good fortune to be a free agent this particular year in this particular market.
Still, you won’t stay employed as a GM very long if you keep giving out large contracts to guys who are essentially the tallest dwarf when they reach free agency. But that doesn’t seem to be what’s going on with Walker, if you think the production he provided last year is what he’ll give in 2017 and if you think he can play in 140+ games.
Walker had a 3.7 fWAR last year, while missing the entire month of September. If he continued his seasonal production for that last month, he would have wound up with a 4.4 fWAR. That’s a mark higher than what Yoenis Cespedes has recorded in four of his five seasons in the majors. Shoot, Walker’s actual 3.7 fWAR is higher than Cespedes’ production in the same four years out of five. And no one has any qualms about exceeding $17.2 million for multiple years for Cespedes.
It’s a tough position to be advocating for $100 million plus for Cespedes over four years and saying Walker’s not worth $17.2 over one year. In the five seasons Cespedes has been in the majors, he’s amassed 18.6 fWAR. Walker has 15 fWAR. If Cespedes is worth the $27.5 million he was paid in 2015, you’re valuing that extra 0.72 unit of WAR per year lifetime that Cespedes has provided over Walker at over $38 million. One can certainly argue that you shouldn’t value WAR linearly but it’s hard to argue for that type of excess valuation.
Of course, timing is working out for Cespedes now, too, as he doesn’t have the high-end competition in free agency that he did a year ago. Coming off the best season of his career in 2015, Cespdes was unable to find any team willing to go multiple years at the annual salary he wanted, without a large part of the money being deferred. Now, if you believe MetsBlog, there are 10 teams willing to pay the going rate for Cespedes on a four-year deal.
So, may timing be on your side this Thanksgiving. And may you always be grateful for what you have.
I can’t argue against how you stated your argument. Yes, 17.2 million really hurts, but, after a lot of thought, it was a good move. It is only one year and we have Cecchini possibly in the wings to play second next year.
They can still negotiate a longer contract and nullify the one year deal, right? This way he’s locked in. Aside from his bat, it was a pleasure to watch Walker and Cabrera turn so many smooth double plays.
Great post, Brian and happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, and to everyone at Mets360.
My big question on this has to do with the alternative use of that same 17.2…..will the Pen and The Bench get reinforced? I am also concerned with his health and age.
I think the alternative is absolutely something that should be discussed. I would say the same thing – and with a greater concern – in regards to Cespedes.
The specific mix and style of attack (of the current roster) places a very high value on Cespedes and the Power Anchor He provides. Cespedes really makes things easier for the rest of this lineup, as it is now constructed.
The 28 million per year that Ces will command might pay for “Good Ballplayers” and some lineup balance and flexibility.– guys who can run bases well, even if not very fast…. field their positions reasonable well…. provide competitive at bats and some power— Dexter Fowler is a great example of that type of player.
The 28 million per year that Ces will command
Brian, what is the Statistical Correlation for “what the team looks like” with Ces, versus Without Ces?
There are some stats for guys like Walker, and Duda that have been portrayed to indicate that they are “similar enough” to Ces…and Stats for Fowler that may portray the same thing. Still, the impression I have, and it’s not mine alone, is that Ces has a tremendous positive impact on the team.
Would you argue for a heavy degree of Correlation versus Cause?
Nothing happens in a vacuum.
The thing that the Cespedes proponents are quick to point out is the team’s record with and without him last year. You just can’t assign all of the team’s success (or failure) to one player. The Mets won 18 games from September 1st until the end of the year. Cespedes hit .215 in that stretch.
And the big thing is that if the Mets don’t retain Cespedes, they’re very likely to use that money to acquire an MLB starter. It’s a whole different ballgame if you’re replacing Cespedes with Jose Bautista than if you’re doing it with Ty Kelly.
Would I like to see Cespedes back in 2017? Yes. Do I think they should sign him regardless of the terms of the contract? No. I have complete trust in Sandy Alderson to know where to draw the line.