Entering the 2017 season, the New York Mets are looking forward to some serious production from their top four pitchers. The quartet of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz open eyes to any opponent the Mets might have to face. As for the fifth spot in the rotation, though, it is up for grabs. With the departure of fan favorite Bartolo Colon, the fifth spot was left vacant. There are two candidates that stand out for the job, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Both starters are making names for themselves, albeit in different ways.
Robert Gsellman entered the 2016 season not expecting to take a major league mound. When the injury bug bit Matz on August 22 though, Gsellman was called up to the majors. After going on to compile a 4-2 record with a solid 2.42 ERA and 42 strikeouts, Gsellman became a reliable option and tool for the Mets down the stretch of the season. Thus far this spring, Gsellman has kept up the good work. In twelve innings, Gsellman has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings pitched, with seven strikeouts. Although he may not have the fastest fastball or the sharpest curveball, Gsellman locates his pitches well, which is vital to his success.
Gsellman’s counterpart, Lugo, has taken a different route to opening eyes this spring. Lugo decided to pitch for Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, where he became the number one starter. In 11 innings pitched (as of 3/21), Lugo has pitched to a 2.45 ERA, with five strikeouts. He has won two games for the Puerto Rican side, which has so far been dominant. As a starter in 2016, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 45 strikeouts. Much like Gsellman, Lugo went on an unexpected rise in the 2016 season. For this reason, Gsellman and Lugo are currently in competition for the fifth starter roll.
In the end, I predict that the advantage will go to Gsellman. While both have looked solid this spring, Gsellman has looked confident on the mound and showed commitment to earning the spot by always working this spring to improve himself. That isn’t to say that Lugo hasn’t worked hard, it just seems that Gsellman is more committed. Lugo also has more experience in the bullpen, which could become very useful to the Mets. It would be nice to have Lugo as a long man in a bullpen that has multiple uncertainties.
While many will clamor for Zach Wheeler to be considered for the fifth spot in the rotation, it simply just isn’t the time for that yet. Wheeler may become a vital part of the 2017 Mets, but it will be through the bullpen. Coming off of Tommy John Surgery, Wheeler will no doubt be on an innings limit. Using him as a starter would limit him, at least this season. Based on the innings limit alone, Wheeler shouldn’t be the fifth Mets starter. In the two horse race between Gsellman and Lugo for the fifth starter role will is a close one, but in the end, Gsellman will get the edge.
My rotation would be
deGrom, Syndergaard, Gsellman, Matz, Lugo. I would Park Harvey and Wheeler in extended ST to build innings free of consequence until they are major league ready. Both will be on innings watches, so dragging for them into April is folly anyway.
Harvey stays
I see it 50/50 for Hervey to begin the Season with the Mets. I don’t know the complexities of keeping him in Florida, but he hasn’t yet demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch.
I agree with Eraff. Further, Gsellman was pretty much anointed by TC in early March, so a Gsellman/Lugo comparison is moot. However, if Harvey and Wheeler stay behind, something can open up. Hard to expect Harvey to accept that, however.
I think Harvey will miss one turn, because the way the schedule works out they can do 1-2-3-4 then 1-2-3-4-5. It essentially buys him 10 more days to build it back up down in Florida.
I’d go with him at that point and hope for the best. When healthy, he’s proven to be a great pitcher. He needs to get out on the mound in real games. If he falters across 4-5 ML starts, then the club might have to respond.
Wheeler can wait.
I’d put Lugo in the pen. Gsellman could put together a strong season.
Not quite. With only 1 off day in the first week and none in the 2nd, the best you can do is push the 5th guy back one day from March 8th to 9th. However, with the new 10 day DL and the fact you can backdate a DL date 3 days prior to spring training, you can DL the 5th guy and he’ll be available for the game on the 9th.
But wpuld Harvey and his ego play along and not be part of the “official” opening day roster? I wouldn’t bet money on it.
We Might see Wheeler roll out before Harvey. If/when Wheeler is ready to pitch, they should pitch him through his innings and shut him down.
I could see Harvey missing 5-8 weeks… I have nothing to base this on, other than the fact that he’s really “Just Throwing” at this point—- and I don”t see him rushing competitive AB’s before he’s mentally ready to pitch competitively. I am encouraged that he’s going to be completely healthy physically.
With Harvey, it is learning a new style of pitching. It might be hard for Harvey to adjust from a dominant style pitcher to a more control oriented pitcher. We will see how he adjust, or if he can adjust.
I was reading something about Wheeler being used in a long relief role, I guess to limit innings earlier. And Harvey keeps getting talked up so I can’t imagine he’ll be left behind.
Gsellman is a solid starter. Lugo can do either with that curve. Use both as much as able.
It’s crazy that Lugo is even in the discussion to pitch in the majors considering 6 months ago I didn’t even think he could survive in Japan. Still very skeptical he’ll fare any better than Schwinden did, But I guess more improbable things have happened, such as 31 year old Junior Guerra and his 20 career starts being the Brewers opening day starter.
The biggest surprise about Seth Lugo this Spring has been that he’s Puerto Rican.
ha!