Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Matt Harvey opening the year in extended Spring Training. Uber commenter Eraff on Saturday said, “I see it 50/50 for Hervey to begin the Season with the Mets. I don’t know the complexities of keeping him in Florida, but he hasn’t yet demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch.” My position is that it may make sense for Harvey to be left behind for more work in Florida but that has more to do with pitching depth than with Harvey.
After four Grapefruit League starts, Harvey is 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA. It’s weird to hear the masses say over and over again that Spring Training stats are meaningless but turn around and use Harvey’s record and ERA as proof of his readiness for the regular season. My hope was for Harvey to show good velocity and good command this Spring, as he made his way back from TO surgery.
Harvey’s velocity is not 100% of the way back but he has been improving. After his start against the Marlins, MLB.com Mets reporter Anthony DiComo noted the former All-Star was “[s]itting 91-93 mph for the third straight start.” But after his last outing, DiComo reported, “Harvey’s best sequence came during McCann’s second at-bat in the fourth inning, when he hit 95, 96 and 95 mph on the radar before striking the catcher out with a slider to end the inning.”
As for command, Harvey may not be putting his pitches exactly where he wants them but he’s done a fine job throwing strikes, as he’s allowed just 2 BB in 12.1 IP.
On the surface, Harvey’s biggest problem has been the gopher ball, as he’s allowed 3 HR in Grapefruit League play. But digging a little deeper, we see that a big issue is what transpires in his last inning of work. Here are Harvey’s four starts so far:
1.2 IP, 4 R
3.0 IP, 1 R
3.1 IP, 4 R
4,1 IP, 3 R
Two of the four runs in his third start were unearned. Now, here are Harvey’s numbers removing his last inning, or partial inning, of work:
1.0 IP, 0 ER
2.0 IP, 0 ER
3.0 IP, 1 ER
4.0 IP, 1 ER
How different would the perception of Harvey’s work be so far if his numbers were 10 IP, 2 ER for a 1.90 ERA?
Harvey had been pitching every five days. If had kept that pattern going, he would have taken the mound yesterday against the Braves. Instead, Rafael Montero made that start and threw five shutout innings. Perhaps as the senior member of the rotation, Terry Collins wasn’t going to make Harvey take a bus ride for a road start this late in Grapefruit League play. Instead, Harvey takes the mound today against the Braves, the team he would square off against in the first series of the year if Collins pitches him in one of the first three games.
If Harvey continues his pattern, he should be ready to throw five innings Sunday. If he throws five solid innings, he should be ready to give the club six innings in his first start. Last year, Harvey did not exceed six innings pitched until May 30. Furthermore, no Mets pitcher went more than six innings until Noah Syndergaard on April 12. Assuming Harvey is ready to give six innings on April 5 or 6, that would be right in line with what starters were doing last year for New York.
Of course, if Harvey fails to break 93 mph, struggles with walks and gets beat up in his start today, then all bets are off. But what he’s displayed in his first four starts gives me every reason to feel confident he’s ready for the 2017 season. He’s reaching the mid-90s with his fastball, he’s doing a fine job limiting walks and he’s building up his innings.
It’s everything we hoped to see this Spring.
However, Seth Lugo is further along right now than Harvey, as he pitched pressure-packed games in the World Baseball Classic. One could argue that as a reward for his strong pitching at the end of last year and in the WBC, it might be nice for the Mets to throw him a bone and give him a start or two in April. This is not the decision I would make, as there will likely be starts for Lugo somewhere during the 2017 season. But if the Mets do go down this path, it would be to reward Lugo first and foremost.
I think he should start in LV
When I said that in my comment yesterday, I felt that MLB pitching depth already exists without Harvey in the rotation, so that is similar to your comment. That said the complexities of his surgery and return are somewhat cloudy, so leaving him in PSL would give him the time to get back to speed in low-stress outings. There is also the very high likelihood of some innings limit on Harvey (and we know Wheeler is set at 120-130 IP), so dragging him north to pitch in the cold, as I said, seems folly at face value. Lugo is ready for the season having faced MLB hitters for real. Gsellman is ready. That makes this an easy call.
Unfortunately, the Mets organization seems terrible at telling their stars you need to follow a recovery arc like anyone else to get back to the Show. Wright is the prime example…until recently they were talking as if he might be the starting 3B. Anyone can see he is months from that. Not only can’t he throw, but he hasn’t seen game speed in ages. Why he (and MH and ZW) aren’t required to get time in St Lucie followed by a short run in Bingo is a mystery. Harvey clearly isn’t ready to face elite hitting right now. That’s not shameful by any means. Let him get better and bring him up when he will help the team rather than be s trying of post game interviews about why he went 4.1 IP with 3 ER and telling us all its about “the process” still.
Not sure if you watched today but Keith bristled when it was suggested that Wheeler’s psyche should be factored into the decision on where to place him at the start of the year. Keith said he’s not ready and he should bust his tail to get back to the majors.
Matz next start is being skipped for elbow discomfort.
Yeah, heard this. Not anxious to sacrifice starters in a season with serious World Series aspirations. Keep Harvey pitching and be ready next week!
And now will not be on the starting rotation come opening day.
🙁
Brian I appreciate the data support you gave to show Harvey building his arm up. It’s relatively encouraging to see that he’s just getting hit hard towards the end of his innings. I was bullish on Matt until this article. LGM!
Thanks Chris B!
Hope to see you in the Game Chatters this year.
Harvey looked pretty good in the ST game against the Braves today, he was throwing mid 90’s fastballs.
Yes, he went six innings, hit 97 mph and was regularly 94-96. Also showed good bite on some breaking balls and only allowed one walk. Good outing.
My impression has been that He will. E healthy, and he really showed even more today.
His Slider progressed visibly during the game—- he snapped some real beauties at 89-91. I forget the ab, but he threw 2 in a row to end an ab
Fast ball command is not yet there…. especially his ability to elevate with good location.
Most impressive, he was forced to engage as a pitcher several times today, and he responded really well
I believe he is now at “When… not If”
Guess after Sunday’s performance, this article is moot.
Well, it was written before Sunday’s game and the point of the article was confirmed by the game.
I’ve thought all along that he’d be Healthy, and the performance was extremely reassuring in that regard.
Phillips, Markakis, Freeman, Kemp did not play. I realize that Missing Big Leaguers are a feature of Spring Games, but I’m evaluating Harvey as a Guy on a very long road back.
He was Sharper, but he was far from Prime—it was a great performance, given the History. He was forced to pitch and he Pitched…well!— it was the first time he’s graduated from throwing Pitches to Pitching to Batters.
His Fastball is still scattered….his Slider made progress—Big Progress. The Curve was effective at times. He was 92mph in the last inning—Not 94-96
I’m guarded on this. I’m thrilled with what he did!!!! With Matz out, he probably starts up North. He’s healthy— I don’t know that he’s ready, and a Game versus Army is better than a simulated game.
Let’s Go Matt!!!!!!!!