Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. For the second time in three years, the results were … terrible. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Out of last year’s batch, only three were correct.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “Noah Syndergaard will throw hard.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.
1. After posting a .630 OPS last year, Travis d’Arnaud clears an .800 mark in 2017.
2. Despite clamors to run a platoon, Curtis Granderson finishes with a higher OPS against LHP than Juan Lagares.
3. Steven Matz opens on the DL but when he returns, he does not miss a start the rest of the year.
4. After cracking 16 HR in back-to-back years, Wilmer Flores does not reach double digits.
5. Jacob deGrom finishes with an ERA at least 75 points better than Steamer’s 3.49 projection.
6. No one receives 100 or more PA and puts up a sub .600 OPS like Kevin Plawecki did the past two seasons.
7. Syndergaard does not lead the team in either Wins or IP.
8. Mets will put up an OPS of at least .800 against Bartolo Colon.
9. Asdrubal Cabrera gets fewer than 50 RBIs.
10. Despite talk of an innings limit, Zack Wheeler exceeds 120 IP.
11. Fernando Salas end up with a better ERA and WHIP in more innings and for less money than Jerry Blevins.
12. Mets will win 30 out of 38 games against the Marlins and Phillies.
13. Jose Reyes’ ISO will be 50 points lower than last year’s .176 mark.
14. Not a single voter gives Yoenis Cespedes a first place MVP vote.
15. After finishing with an OPS 74 points lower with RISP than their overall mark, this year the Mets produce an OPS with RISP at least 20 points higher than their overall mark.
Usually, this column ends with a team wins prediction. You can read mine and nine other writers projections in this article posted yesterday.
Brian, these are excellent and I believe I agree with every single one of them. That would make the first time we’ve ever fully agreed. 🙂
Let’s Go Mets
Good stuff. I am most skeptical of #1 and #4. If you had to guess, how many Plate Appearances would you say Travis will get? And Wilmer?
In our projection series, I had 417 PA for TDA and 215 for Flores.
The best Cespedes has done in mvp is a 5th place vote in his rookie year and some 6th place votes the last 2 years with the Mets.
Did you mean to say he won’t get a single point in the MVP balloting? Or did you want to ensure you’d get at least one right 🙂
He was hurt in that his best year he changed leagues. If he played all season in one league in 2015, he would have done better.
FWIW, I did not look at his MVP voting record. I was just responding to the buzz circulating that he’s aiming for one this year.
In the alternate universe where Cespedes wasn’t traded to the Mets, I don’t think he would have gotten a single MVP vote that year. He was having a solid season with Detroit, but wasn’t even the first or second best on that team.
Cespedes had 6.3 bWAR in 2015. Three Tigers had a lesser amount — Cabrera (5.0), Martinez (5.0) and Kinsler (6.0) — and drew votes. Certainly, WAR isn’t how people vote or how arguments are settled. But it’s not an unreasonable assumption that the (hypothetical) person on the team with the highest WAR would receive votes when three of his teammates did.
Ah, but you’re assuming that Cespedes would have been able to replicate his .942 OPS with the Mets if he were still a Tiger. I highly doubt that.
Since people tend to weight more on offense anyways, if we look at OPS of time of trade.
Miggy: 1.037 OPS (but injured for nearly all of July)
Martinez: .902 OPS
Cespedes: .829 OPS
Looking at the Tigers monthly OPS, August/September were 2 of the lowest months, which indicates to me that they didn’t face easy pickings like the Mets did those final 2 months.
Seeing how Cabrera and Martinez both drop 30-50 OPS in the final 2 months, in my alternate universe, Cespedes finishes 2015 with a sub .800 OPS, zero MVP consideration, once again initially declines the QO, but with his bad clubhouse reputation has to beg a team to give him 1 year at the Qualifying offer rate.
Well, you have to assume that the player did what he did. Otherwise, I could assume he played the entire year with the Mets and hit .942 for the entire season. Also, he went from a Gold Glove LF to a below average CF after the trade, which hurt his overall numbers.
I guess you don’t buy the change of scenery factor then
When the Mets released Chris Young he had a .630 OPS. He signed one with the Yankees and had a 876 ops in september. You and I both know it would be highly unlikely he would have been able to replicate that had he stayed with the Mets.
I know no such thing.
If you did a study of the last 50 players who changed teams and compared their before and after and came up with some definitive — then I’d give it some credence. But changing teams didn’t help Jay Bruce.
Regardless, it’s Opening Day and I’m burnt out on this hypothetical from 2015. Hope to see you in the Game Chatter today.
Just three out of me:
– Reyes will get hurt before the end of April. Flores will take over third and have people chanting his name, just like last June. Granderson will lead off and Walker will be moved to #2 to make room for Flores at #5. Flores will be in the voting for final all-star spot.
– The Mets staff will have the best ERA in baseball by at least half a run.
– (Buzz-kill, sorry) The Dodgers will win 110 games and the World Series. The Mets offense will let them down when it counts most, again.