If you ask Mets fans about Michael Conforto, they’ll tell you he’s a star who’s showing why he should have been Plan A from the start of the year. If you ask those same fans about Lucas Duda, you’ll get a much more subdued response. But what’s been the difference between the two players this year with a bat in their hands? Conforto holds a 46-point edge in BABIP. Duda leads him in isolated OBP (.112 to .101) and isolated slugging (.339 to .320) but few want to give him much credit for that.
What is it about Conforto that inspires such loyalty and what is it about Duda that inspires such apathy?
It’s easy to see why fans take such a shine to Conforto. He’s a first-round pick who rocketed through the minors and in his first exposure to the majors, came up and produced in a playoff atmosphere. Plus he arrived with a reputation as not much of a defensive player and he’s been much better than advertised in that regard, showing good instincts along with a strong, accurate arm.
Duda, meanwhile, was a mid-round pick who had a forgettable debut for a forgettable 2010 Mets team which went 79-83. On top of that, Duda was forced to play out of position, as the Mets chose to make the less athletic Duda play the outfield for 234 games because of the presence of first-round pick Ike Davis.
And let’s be honest – Duda was terrible in the outfield. He was so bad in the outfield that everyone just assumed he was a lousy defensive player at first base, even though the numbers never supported that position. And then he made the poor throw in the World Series and some people will never forgive him for that.
But just like one at-bat in the NLCS shouldn’t define Carlos Beltran, one throw in the World Series shouldn’t define Duda. Despite below-average range, Duda has been a slightly above average player at first base since moving back to his normal position in 2014. In 2,986 innings at first base, Duda has a +12 DRS and a +1 UZR. He’s very nimble around the bag and having to field throws from Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores has given him ample opportunity to show off his chops on errant throws.
Still, no one wants a first baseman because of his defensive play. They want an offensive player, preferably one with power. And even his detractors will admit that Duda brings power to the table. Yet somehow a lot of the fanbase is still unimpressed. It’s as if they acknowledge the power but think that it’s nothing special, that everyone who plays the position can provide the same thing, if given the opportunity.
It’s as if James Loney and his .099 ISO over his final 246 PA never happened, even if it happened in 2016.
Loney may be the key to understanding why the fans don’t embrace Duda, though. Loney had a reputation as a good defensive player, even though that was unsupported by the numbers since 2014. So, whenever Loney made a good play it was confirmation of the preconceived notion. And when he didn’t stretch for thrown balls or displayed poor footwork or committed an error, it was quickly forgotten. It’s a classic case of perception trumping reality.
Perhaps even more illustrative of why fans are lukewarm to Duda is because he’s not a good hitter for AVG. Coming into this year, he had a lifetime .246 mark and he was below that the past two seasons, including his injury-shortened 2016, when he posted a .229 mark. As poor as Loney was last year, he still hit .265 for the Mets. It wasn’t until August that Loney had back-to-back hitless games. His specialty was the 1-4 game, which he did 22 times. He also had six games where he went 1-5.
At one point, it was thought that batting average was the best way to judge a player’s offensive contribution. Now we know that OBP and SLG are better. Some people still don’t believe that. Hey, willful ignorance is everywhere, so we shouldn’t be surprised when it shows up in people’s baseball beliefs. After all, The Flat Earth Society’s Facebook page has 74,593 likes.
Yet here is Duda in 2017 with a .278 AVG – more importantly with a .390 OBP and a .617 SLG – and people are still plotting and scheming for ways to get rid of him. Preconceived notions still rule the day.
It’s only 136 PA and a lot can change between now and the end of the season. But Duda’s numbers last year were produced in just 172 PA and in some people’s minds that carried more weight than what he did in over 500 PA in both 2015 and 2014. You can’t have it both ways. If this year is to be dismissed because of the sample size issue than the same thing should apply for 2016.
If we combine all of his PA since 2014, Duda has a 131 wRC+ in 1,458 PA. That’s not a top five first baseman in the majors over that time span but it is top 10. He’s tied with Brandon Belt for the eighth-best mark. Yet people remain unimpressed with what he’s done. Go figure.
Currently, Duda has a 163 wRC+. Clearly it’s a small sample, one that has been aided by an incredible 12-game stretch where he has a .383/.442/.872 line. We know that won’t last. But we should be aware that the offensive environment has changed greatly the last two years or so. Here are the HR hit in the majors the past four years during the first two months of the season:
2014 – 709
2015 – 684
2016 – 811
2017 – 934
We can debate the cause of this power surge but it’s obvious that there’s been a giant change in results. The game favors the power hitters. We’ve long lost the stigma of big strikeout numbers and teams all over the league are embracing the long balls and what it takes to produce them.
But Duda has seen a spike in his power numbers without seeing an increase in his strikeout percentage. In 2015, Duda had a 24.9 K% and a .242 ISO. This year he has a 22.8 K% and a .339 ISO. Overall in the majors, in 2015 the average was a 21.3 K% and a .185 ISO and this year those numbers are 22.7 and .218, respectively.
So, we see his strikeout numbers are down and his power numbers are up. And his average is up, too. Again, we’re only about 1/3 of the way through the season plus Duda spent time on the DL. A lot can change by the end of the season. But anyone who’s not impressed by what we’ve seen so far from Duda is at best an uniformed fan.
Duda has been one of the team’s most productive hitters in 2017. Many people, quite correctly, were taking a wait-and-see approach with Duda coming into the season, unsure how he would be affected by last year’s back injury. But the early returns are amazing.
From our vantage point here on June 4, it appears Duda has taken advantage of the new offensive reality better than anyone on the team, with the possible exception of Conforto. It will be curious – assuming he is able to maintain strong, if not elite, power numbers the rest of the year – how the Mets will treat Duda in the offseason.
Last year, we saw the market completely unimpressed by power hitters. Perhaps clubs viewed power as a less desirable commodity since seemingly more people had it. Or perhaps clubs didn’t think 2016’s power surge was for real. But with two years of these types of results available, it wouldn’t surprise me for power to be in a much bigger demand this coming offseason.
Brian’s statistics don’t lie. Yet from observing the big man since the late season call up in in 2010 and his right field substitution after the Carlos Beltran trade, Lucas is an incomplete player.
When he’s hot Lucas is a force. During his extended cold snaps he’s a huge disappointment. Brian’s description of the negative fan base is correct but it’s caused by with runners in scoring position, he takes the walk with an open base. Or worse yet, Lucas pulls the ball into the shift instead of a nice opposite field soft liner to drive in the two runners. His high OBP and low BA fits my perception
The saying goes: the market doesn’t lie. Let us see Lucas Duda value during this winter’s free agent season.
This is a great example of preconceived notions.
Duda has done better in AVG and SLG this year with RISP than he’s done overall but has a lower OBP. Yet the criticism is that he’s too willing to take a walk.
I agree it’s a preconceived notion.
Yet we see the Lucas every day so your statistics put everything into context.
So the real gauge is what do visiting fans see in Lucas. As an example when we play Miami, I physically fear seeing Marecel Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo. Do Miami fans fear the same when Lucs comes to the plate in a make or break moment?
Yet we see the Lucas every day so your statistics put everything into context.
So the real gauge is what do visiting fans see in Lucas. As an example when we play Miami, I physically fear seeing Marecel Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo. Do Miami fans fear the same when Lucs comes to the plate in a make or break moment?
Many of us simply assumed that the Mets would move Duda at some point, or let him leave, to make room for Dom Smith. The thinking took into account the need for Duda’s money to be invested in extending offers to the dynamic pitching.
Well, it certainly hasn’t been working out that way. Smith’s numbers at LV have been pretty good, but they could be more dynamic in such a hitting environment.
Duda’s numbers, done at the major league level, are better from a power level.
As for the pitching, who the hell knows what to do? You would like to extend Noah and Jacob, but for how much and to what extent do you have to take into account the injury factors. What about Matz, or Harvey?
My next thought is that the Mets need some trading chips to fill in holes. There may be needs at 2B and 3B. What about catching? Or the BP? Or starting pitching depth?
By the way, I do like Brian’s recognition of Duda’s defense. He’s not a gold glover, but he’s better than many thought. For a big guy he’s got quick feet.
Sorry for being so verbose, but the front office has got a lot of things to consider.
I’ve always liked Duda and it’s hard to figure why he generates so much enmity amongst some fans. Oh well.
He’s essentially an .800 OPS hitter for his career. It always feels to me that he should be more productive, but somehow he falls short of his potential. We see those streaks and wonder what if.
I don’t know what he’ll make on the open market this winter. He has the back issue. I wonder if teams will be reluctant to go 3-4 years with him. Honestly, I have no idea how it will turn out.
I’ve always been open to his return next season. A lot depends on terms and the team’s evaluation of Smith.
He’s a good player who seems to continually fall short of being a really good player. That’s not terrible. Teams need good players.
The problem with Duda and the reason he is not a fan favorite is that he is the most unclutch Met ever. His homers are usually when the Mets are up big or down big and he’s hitting off second tier pitchers. Up against quality relievers in the late innings of close games he always disappoints. He lacks the competitiveness that good hitters have. I would love to his stats in close games in late innings.
Im wearing a Duda T-shirt as I write this…
Only 2 of his HR have had men on base. Long stretches of solos. Also, hes the king of “running up” the score. I dont even count production after a 5 run lead. So you might not like RBIs and Runs, but they still matter. Plenty of times Duda coems up with runners on and Ks then later hits a solo HR. Id rather have the single. This has been a lot on my mind with this Pirates series with this Diaz kid coming up with 6 RBIs with a double and HR, while Duda has 2 HR and 3 RBI. He could have had a lot more with less power. Conforto also has 31 more bases. Duda is pretty much a power hitter that plays 1B ok. He was the right choice over Ike thats for sure.
I place a lot of value on situational outcomes. Duda commonly does not do well in those situations…hitting or fielding.
I think it’s important to keep in mind that for MLB as a whole, the majority of homers are solo shots. Year in, year out the percentage is around 60%. It’s a little over 59% so far this year. Duda has 10 homers and eight of them have been solo shots. So, he’s had two more solo shots than you’d expect.
Year-to-year totals in this are random. Over his career, Duda has 118 HR and 44 of them have come with runners on base. That’s 37% or just a shade below what we would expect. To me, it’s not anything to be alarmed about.
Lucas looks “plodding” in every way…a similar type of approach and outward demeanor of a former Met, Kevin McReynolds. McReynolds ran well and fielded well… he was a Good and Imperfect Player—- and he just looked like reluctant molasses. Met’s fans could never attach to McReynolds—to some extent, I remember that being mutual for Mr. Mac.
Lucas lacks McReynolds all-around game…he’s actually about as plodding as he appears…but he’s a nice hitter, generally. He doesn;t seem to have the oomph to hit above 5/6/7, but he’s a nice player.
The biggest problem is that he’s a repetitively Imperfect player—a guy who can only participate with his bat…Flores, Cabrera, Bruce, d’Arnaud, etc. He’s at a position that has always been home to Bats Only Guys—-Huge Bats, and guys who are huge stars. He’s neither.
Lucas Duda is a good player.His career 792 OPS avg and 26 home runs does not make him an elite first baseman but more in the second tier of NL first baseman. The Mets could extend him for preferably two years maybe three. Dominic Smith is 22 YOA next week. He has to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the Rule Five Draft. He then has three option years and will be 25 YOA before the Mets would lose control of him. Duda at that time will be 34 YOA.
This is just a thought to ponder.