Amed Rosario the last three weeks is looking like the guy who many talent evaluators considered one of the top prospects in the game a year ago. He’s hitting at a good clip, he’s running the bases and he’s making plays in the field. It’s a giant step up from where he was after his promotion last season and even where he was for most of 2018. We all want guys to come up and succeed right away. But sometimes you have to show some patience, as not everyone’s development schedule is the same.
Last year Rosario put up a .665 OPS and a 76 OPS+ in 170 PA. It was not what the fans were hoping for but for the most part, they were understanding of a 21 year old not excelling right away. But expectations were higher for this year. With that MLB seasoning under his belt, Rosario was expected to be one of the team’s productive players.
But it didn’t work out that way at all. As late as May 18, Rosario had a sub .600 OPS. And his speed seemed like a forgotten asset and his defense made everyone wonder if he was really a SS at this level. As late as August 8, Rosario had just a .619 OPS. But in his last 18 games, Rosario is batting .325 with a .488 SLG mark. He has 7 XBH in 84 PA, including 3 HR.
With a .383 BABIP in this span, the hits are certainly falling in for Rosario. But compare it to his first 18 games of the year. He had a .357 BABIP in those games but only a .664 OPS. In addition to zero homers in that opening stretch, Rosario was also striking out 27 percent of the time. Fewer strikeouts and more power is a nice combo and that’s exactly what we’re seeing from the team’s young shortstop.
After attempting just two steals – and being thrown out both times – in his first 18 games, Rosario has attempted nine steals in his last 18 contests. His percentage is still not good, he was thrown out at third base in a key play in last night’s game, but at least he has five successful attempts. Essentially, he’s learning to be a basestealer here at the major league level. Everyone believes he has the speed to be a legitimate threat. We’ll just have to exhibit some more patience as he improves his techniques and his percentage.
Defensively, he rates as one of the worst shortstops in the game, whether you look at DRS (-15) or UZR (-4.1). Both systems are down on his range. He still has times where he appears to circle the ball, rather than taking a more direct path. But he seems quite adept at going towards his left and throwing on the run. It’s something he can build from as he needs work on improving balls he charges or ones hit in the hole.
Earlier, there were rumors floated that Rosario might shift to the outfield. Top prospect Andres Gimenez is considered a top defensive shortstop and he got a mid-year promotion to Double-A, so he’s not far from the bigs. Plus, the Mets have a plethora of shortstops in the lower levels of the system. It made sense to consider moving Rosario. But we need to remember that Rosario was considered a good defensive shortstop when he was in the minors. Gimenez might not be any better in the field when he arrives in the majors.
No one doubts that the Mets need to be more athletic in the field. Rosario can be one of the guys to help change the club in this regard. He’s not there yet but we’ve seen improvement. Is it enough? Is it reasonable to expect more improvement the rest of this year and next? This feels like a question on which reasonable people can disagree.
My preference is for more patience and to keep Rosario at shortstop.
Agreed Brian, I think we were pretty critical of the young man. Maybe patience isn’t one of our strong points as fans especially with the expectations of a 2018 pennant race.
We see so much of Trea Turner and to a lesser extent Danby Swanson so we have “young shortstop envy.”
Turner is such an interesting player. He looked like a future MVP candidate in 2016 but he’s currently with a .267/.334/.404 triple slash line. He’s still an excellent player because of everything else he does well but that batting line is not much above the average NL SS this year.
In my view, he has a long, long way to go.
I tire of looking at an “x-number of games” sample, or an “x-number of plate appearances” sample. I look at one thing — his entire season, as that is the one and only reliable indicator of what a player will (can) do over a full season (which is all that really matters).
What I see in Rosario is a .250 hitter who doesn’t have much power and absolutely no clue (still) of the strike zone. While he has speed, he is not what anyone would call a good base stealer and I would characterize him as a marginally good base runner. Defensively, his range (or lack thereof) is a big, big issue behind this pitching staff.
True, he has played better lately and that may (or may not) have some significance for a younger player, but over the course of his first full season, I am far from sold that he is a long term answer at short, or any other spot for that matter.
If he can be packaged in some sort of deal for an improvement behind the plate or in centerfield, I wouldn’t hesitate to move him.
The kid clearly has talent but epitomizes the shortcomings with organizational development. Why did he look so over his head and overmatched when he got to the bigs? Same as Smith, Plawecki, Nimmo and others. We’re doing something very wrong down on the farm.
“But in his last 18 games, Rosario is batting .325 with a .488 SLG mark. He has 7 XBH in 84 PA, including 3 HR”
But in his prior 18 games to that, he had a .422 OPS. Like i said, it’s gonna be a long journey with him, and 2021 is his target for breaking out. It’s debatable whether the payoff is worth the extremely long wait.
You may be right about taking until 2021. If it does, I expect it happens with another team.
“But we need to remember that Rosario was considered a good defensive shortstop when he was in the minors.”
Sorry, this is a slight tangent, but technically related since it’s mentioned in the article, but I’ve been wondering whether to trust defensive reports from the minors.
In the past few years, we’ve had Rosario, Smith, Guillorme being touted as highly gifted defenders and they’ve been awful at the major league level.
A guy like Lagares who is only known for defense, that no one saw at the minor league level.
Conforto, who everyone said would be a butcher in the OF, is a solid asset in the corners.
Does that mean Alonso is a future stud at 1b and Giminez sucks?
Who have we gotten right? Well, we haven’t had much other decent position player talent graduate from the system, but Nimmo, Mdd, and Kirk performed how their minor league reports said they would. Coincidentally, they were all CF in the minors….
Id move him to 2B next year and get a passable everyday short term SS (not reyes), and build the Giminez/Rosario duo as the keystone.
Getting caught as much as he has been(and picked off) it would be better if he just took his lead.Get Tom Goodwin or Mookie Wilson in to work with him.Still not a leadoff man though.:)
He’s having the exact year I suspected— flitting back and forth around 660 OPS and maybe establishing a foothold.
I’ve always thought he played without surrender, although he was close to folding last month.
This is how you get “Nice things”…I won’t get too hung up on Defensive ratings until we see more. To me, it looks like he can more than play the position—it would be foolish to make too many assumptions at such an early age.
The Mets have no business tossing away talented young guys…especially when they’re losing 90 games. That’s a time to move older players, not young ones.
Last night, I was looking at Javier Baez and reminiscing of the days the Cubs wanted to get rid of him because of the strikeouts. He wasn’t looking good on the field and the average was low. Then the light came on. I kind of wanted to make a play for him, but don’t remember what it was the Cubbies wanted.
My point is, talent will not be hidden for long. Talent wins, not smoke and mirrors. I’m a big believer of trying to get guys on the cheap that haven’t panned out and two years ago wanted to go after Puig and Billy Hamilton. I say relax on trading Rosario and just try to add to the offensive black holes at 3B, 1B, CF, and to some extent C.
Two articles from 2014, posted within about a month of one another, about trading for Baez: