According to multiple, reliable sources the Mets are indeed in discussions with as many as six teams regarding a potential return for pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Blasphemy!
At least that was my initial reaction and certainly many of you reading this shouted out similar, though perhaps less dramatic words. Syndergaard possesses tantalizing talent and Hall of Fame potential. He’s the hardest throwing starting pitcher in baseball (okay second hardest this past season) and a consistent strike thrower with a four-pitch arsenal. Since 2016, Syndergaard has MLB’s top park-adjusted FIP, ahead of, in order, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, James Paxton/Jacob deGrom (tied for fifth). Thanks to Mets 360 contributor BK for that one. He’s fearless on the mound, well-liked in the clubhouse and beloved by Mets fans. On top of that, he’s just 26 years old and just entering arbitration so he’s under team control for three seasons. With all of that said, why on earth would our brand new general manager, Brodie Van Waganen even consider turning this building block into a trade chip? Five very good reasons.
- This franchise needs a big, bold move to shake things up and Van Waganen needs to “establish his presence with authority.” (Laloosh, N., 1988) The Mets are coming off two consecutive bad years with poor records and declining attendance. The only scary hitter we have in our lineup will miss at least half of the coming season. Yes, we have a strong rotation and a few nice players, but this Mets team is in purgatory – too much talent to tear it down and rebuild, but not enough talent to compete with the Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Nationals and the quickly emerging Braves and Phillies. The National League East is becoming more competitive and the Mets need to bolster their roster by doing more than just off-season tinkering.
- We can’t keep all four horses. Thinking long-term, the Mets can’t realistically hope to lock up all four of our top starters. Jacob deGrom is too darn good, one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s our ace and no one else can have him. End of discussion. The other two young starters, while super talented and still young, don’t hold as much trade value. Given Steven Matz‘s injury history and the uneven year he just had, it would be foolish to trade him now. His value is too low as he’s seen as a risk. This might be a smart time to lock him up to a long-term contract, if the organization has faith in his future. Zack Wheeler is coming off a dynamite year, but is entering his walk year. As much as teams would line up for him, the idea of having to negotiate a long-term contract with a player with his history of arm issues, would make most GMs hesitate to offer up too much in trade. The Mets front office needs to give a lot of consideration to his future. Sydergaard has been one of the best bargains in baseball these past few years (hat tip to that lopsided collective bargaining agreement that’s somehow still in play), but that’s about to change. This year he’ll finally get paid; next year more so. If he keeps pitching like this, his third year of arbitration will be expensive and the long-term contract he’ll command will be more than a mid-market payroll team paying Jacob deGrom a similar one can likely swallow.
- Syndergaard is our most valuable trade chip and his value will never be higher than it is right now. Given his age and years of control, there’s not a team in baseball that can’t use him. If we wait a year or two, we rule out half the teams. Look at how Tampa just released C.J. Cron after he hit 30 home runs because they don’t want to pay him $5 million. Syndergaard could bring back a haul. Like Texas Gus said, this has the potential to be a franchise altering Herschel Walker type trade. Or, perhaps, a bit more apropos, a Mark Teixeira type trade. For those who don’t recall, back in the summer of 2007, the Atlanta Braves were looking for a big bat to fortify their lineup for the stretch run and traded five prospects to the Texas Rangers for the then 27-year-old first baseman. Among those five prospects were shortstop Elvis Andrus, starter Matt Harrison and closer Neftali Feliz. Those three helped propel Texas to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011. The Mets haven’t had back-to-back World Series appearances since ever.
- What if he never realizes his potential? I look at Syndergaard as the Darryl Strawberry of pitching – mouth-watering potential and flashes of greatness. What if he never amounts to more than he is – a very good but not quite great pitcher? Despite his talent, Syndergaard still hasn’t learned to harness it the way deGrom has. His stuff is electric, his control impeccable, but as I’ve stated on these pages before, he still hasn’t learned to go north-south and throws every pitch knee high. The high 90s fastballs, biting sliders, diving change-ups and occasional hammer curves all hit the strike zone and dart inside and out, but how often do we see Syndergaard set up a hitter for a high hard one the way deGrom does and the way Dwight Gooden, Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and so many other power pitchers have? The answer is almost never. It’s infuriating to watch. It’s why he’s surprisingly hittable at times. Maybe he’ll make the adjustment, maybe he won’t. There’s also the fact that he’s the easiest pitcher in baseball to steal bases against and teams have figured out how to exploit that weakness. Syndergaard has also had his share of injuries and has yet to prove he can be a durable, 33-start, 200-inning front-line starter.
- Tommy John surgery is likely in his future. No, not every hard-throwing starting pitcher tears their ulnar collateral ligament, but Syndergaard’s delivery is violent and puts a lot of strain on his arm, as does the velocity he delivers. Add to that he’s 6′ 6″ and lifts weights, and it would be more of a surprise if he doesn’t eventually need the surgery. Most pitchers come back from Tommy John surgery, but some take longer than others like Wheeler or overcompensate and wind up with other worse injuries like Matt Harvey. Most who do come back lose a few ticks off their fastball and secondary pitches too. Is Syndergaard a savvy enough pitcher to succeed with diminished velocity?
These are the reasons why we should consider trading Syndergaard, not why we should trade him. Whether this ballsy new GM pulls the trigger should be motivated only by a massive, franchise changing return that warrants it.
I doubt they will trade him. More than likely it’s just fake news to keep us fans tuned in during the winter.
If they do trade him they had better get a minimum of 3 very good players/prospects back. Other teams do it but when the Mets trade it never seems like they get the return they should. This time, if it happens, better be different.
The only way I would trade him wold be for a haul like Tatis Jr, Mejia and Gore from San Diego, otherwise its a big no.
I also believe it’s irresponsible to report these low-possibility events as a headline. But when the news cycle is slow this kind of stuff will be overanalyzed and talked about. At best, this should be a bullet point or footnote in a roundup type of article, not a focal point of a main article.
Name, as I pointed out, this has been reported on by several trusted sources including. This is not just idle off-season conjecture. I would not have devoted a piece like this to an unsubstaniated rumor. Mets 360 does not do that and it’s one of things that drew me to this particular Mets blog (along with the knowledgeable fans). I’m no fan of those silly, loo-sided radio call in trade proposal discussions and neither are my fellow writers on here.
Sorry, i didn’t mean that we shouldn’t discuss it here. The “story” had already broke and people are going to want to talk it about.
I was more referring to the journalist or columnist who initially heard it and decided to run with it as a “story”, trying to drum up clickbait for a website/newspaper. Too many times reporters take an innoncent off-hand quip that someone makes and tries to pass it off as something that is likely to happen, when odds are nothing will materialize The same thing happened this offseason earlier with Kris Bryant
I agree that the Mets do not need to trade Syndergaard as I believe they will forever regret trading him, and teams are already insisting that they will not give the Mets their top prospect(s). The Mets need a right handed bat then why not pick up CJ Cron who was designated for assignment by the Rays? CJ has been a real good 1B man with a stat of 993 while defending 1B, and we all know he possesses good pop with 30 HRs in 2018. That is a great fielding statistics for any 1B to possess. Why not get him from the Rays, and work with him on playing 3B? Sign LeMahiue to play IF/OF as he is another competent righty bat. I’d turn around, and sign Freddy Galvis who will hit about 244, He switch hits and plays both IF and OF plus he is an A plus defender with good speed and a good arm. You can play him all over the field, and he will contribute. He’d make a good utility man.
Trading Thor would be insane and three times worse than the Kazmir trade. Noah was the best pitcher in the nl just in 2016 and even in a non dominant season this year was worth four war, just spend money on free agents, oh right the cheap Wilpons are in the way. Martino’s plan of trading Nimmo for Kluber than trading Thor is beyond stupid.
All sensible points Matt.
If they pull the trigger and end up trading Syndergaard, the return must include at least one proven, quality major league player.
Prospects alone — even those “can’t miss” types — are not enough.
If the Mets can get a return of two MLB starters or one star and a couple of near ready extremely high ranking prospects then a trade would make sense. They can fill in with a free agent for Thor’s rotation spot. Regardless they need to add a right handed power bat and a catcher who can handle the staff and throw out runners. Those additions should allow us to vie for a wild card spot. Then a trade deadline splash could throw us over the top.
They won’t sign a big free agent like Corbin to replace Thor and maybe not even Happ it’s gonna be a give slightly better than Vargas.
All valid points from everyone. Get value from a trade and fill rotation spot with a free agent pitcher and then done. I understand.
But for everyone who can remember, trading Syndergaard is like trading an underperforming guy, let’s call him Nolan Ryan for value that brings you to a potential pennant. .
Then we watch the guy pitch for 20 more years and start blinking uncontrollably.
There are plenty of hard- throwing power pitchers with long careers of recent years who never needed Tommy John surgery. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson are the first ones that come to mind for me.
And then there is Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. A Syndergaard trade will have to be followed by other moves such as signing Corbin for this to make any sense.I’d rather see Corbin signed first followed by the trade.
I think Met fans will be disappointed with the inevetible return for Thor. See: Paxton, Archer, Sale trades as comps and consider that Thor is injury prone and despite ‘team control’ he is not financially controlled. Meaning that his salary will fluctuate which could be a turnoff for mid market teams looking for stability.
Take a look at the playoffs full of heavy hitters, dominant pens and sprinkled in a SP who would sometimes only go 4 innings. I don’t hate the idea of trading Thor for some know ML talent to upgrade C or 3B or CF.
There is absolutely no reason not to hear what the marketplace will offer for Syndergaard. Ditto basically anyone else. For anyone at this point to declare that is is bad idea to trade Noah has no basis for this conclusion because the return is not known. I agree that it is unlikely, I agree that it will be difficult, and I certainly agree that is should not be done just to make a splash. My preference is to retain him, but there are some scenarios where it could be a win win, especially for a team that is very close with an abundance of bats and prospects. A big bat and a top pitching prospect that is close could get it done and make sense for both teams. Astros and Cubs can do this.
Glad I could spark some good chatter here. Two points I want to add. 1) I don’t get why the Cubs keep getting mentioned. They have five good starters (Lester, Hamels, Hendricks, Quintana and Darvish) and even though one is injured they have two solid starters in reserve with Montgomery and Chatwood. 2) If the Mets move Thor before working out contracts with JDG and Wheels, they’ll be giving up a lot of leverage in negotiations.
Matt,
The Cubs are mentioned because they are one of possibly three or four teams that are close to championship caliber and have quality positional and/or prospect depth. They do have five “good” pitchers, but Syndergaard, given his age, accomplishments, and risk, is likely a better bet over the next 3 years than any one of the seven pitchers you mention.