From 2015-2018, Carlos Carrasco amassed the seventh-most fWAR among MLB pitchers, one spot ahead of Gerrit Cole and one behind Justin Verlander. Then came his battle with leukemia in 2019. A medication regimen allowed Carrasco to return to the mound late in the 2019 season and by the end of 2020, he seemed to be back to his previous levels, as in his final six starts he had a 1.66 ERA with 43 Ks in 38 IP. Here’s what the computer models forecast for Carrasco this year:
ATC – 169 IP, 3.60 ERA, 195 Ks, 51 BB, 24 HR
Marcel – 152 IP, 4.09 ERA, 172 Ks, 51 BB, 23 HR
RotoCh – 177 IP, 3.51 ERA, 203 Ks, 53 BB
Steamer – 174 IP, 3.68 ERA, 198 Ks, 52 BB, 24 HR
THE BAT – 172 IP, 4.25 ERA, 190 Ks, 59 BB, 27 HR
ZiPS – 142.2, 3.60 ERA, 166 Ks, 37 BB, 21 HR
It’s good news-bad news looking at these computer models. The good news is that they see Carrasco maintaining a high strikeout rate and see his walks improving from 2020, even if not to pre-2019 levels. The bad news is that they all see a high HR rate, influenced by his dismal output in that department in his injury-ravaged 2019 season, when he posted a 2.03 HR/9.
In his strong close to 2020, Carrasco allowed 2 HR in 38 IP.
An average fan would be worried most by Carrasco’s age, as he turns 34 in March. But the computer models don’t seem overly concerned with that particular number. Again, this is good news.
Fans always tend to be more optimistic about the players on their team. And that’s okay. But in the particular case of Carrasco, we’re faced with a situation where the computer models forecast a pretty good year but the most obvious issue they are docking him for – well, it’s easy to conclude that they are just off base with this particular criticism.
Carrasco had solid HR/9 numbers pre 2019. They were back to that level in the Covid-shortened 2020 and they were incredible in the second half of the season. It’s just difficult for me to imagine that a guy with a 1.05 lifetime HR/9, a guy who had a 1.06 rate in 2020, will produce a 1.43 HR/9 like THE BAT forecasts for Carrasco in 2021, especially since he’s moving to a home ballpark that’s slightly more favorable to pitchers when it comes to HR allowed. ESPN’s park factors for 2019 had Progressive Field in Cleveland with a 1.048 HR factor and Citi Field with a 1.000 mark.
Which brings us to the elephant in the room.
We all want the happy ending, the one where a player overcomes adversity and lives happily ever after. Right now, we have that with Carrasco and his battle with leukemia. He seems to have everything under control and there is no doubt that each and every one of us is hoping this isn’t an issue for him going forward.
My first introduction to leukemia came in the mid-70s with Twins infielder Danny Thompson. Now, Thompson did not have the same form of leukemia as Carrasco. And medical science has come a long way in the past 45 years. It’s impossible to stress these two factors too much. But after being diagnosed with leukemia in 1973, Thompson passed away in the offseason following the 1976 campaign.
Please don’t become Dr. Google and comment with a bunch of links about how Carrasco’s form of leukemia is different. That’s not the point. What is the point is that leukemia is a form of cancer and that cancer not only sucks but is often unpredictable. Carrasco will be under constant supervision and will receive the best medical care humanly possible. His chance of death in 2021 is as close to zero as any of ours. But that doesn’t mean that it can’t potentially impact his season.
The premise behind these predictions is to use the computer models as a starting point and then add in information we have that the models don’t incorporate. The models know that 2019 was a tough year for Carrasco but they don’t know why. We know the why and it’s up to us how much, if any, to incorporate that knowledge into our forecast.
My completely biased prediction for Carrasco this year is:
176.1 IP, 3.33 ERA, 196 Ks, 54 BB, 19 HR
You’ll have more credibility if you chime in now with what you think Carrasco will do this season.
My prediction is Carrasco will end his season being given a milk shower.
3.00, 18 W, 1.2 WHIP
I’m guessing the hardest thing for Carrasco will not be pitching, but the emotions of changing leagues, a new city, a new lease on life, and keeping it all contained. Especially after last year and his tumultuous year before that, this season promises to be redeeming, long and grueling. The urge to prove something might be overwhelming. Maintaining an even keel and staying focused will give him his best chance at consistency, and he will benefit from that. I’d hate to see him hit the wall sometime late summer, but if he can stay level, we would be very happy with Brian’s numbers… certainly not out of reach.
HRs should be down. Bigger park, new to the hitters, facing pitchers in the lineup, and the deader ball all add up to 1.2 HR per nine innings. Hope he wins the CY…
Love the Lindor-Carrasco deal!
Prediction for Carrasco:
168 IP, 3.20 ERA, 204 Ks, 45 BB, 16 HR
180 IP, 3.34 ERA, 190 K’s, 46 BB, 22 HR
Carrasco is a solid #2 starter in the rotation. Last year had a better ERA ( by 0.01) than the Phillies ace Wheeler. I admire him for his perseverance in battling the disease. I’m rooting for him in life.
The elephant in the room shouldn’t be ignored and that is another reason the Mets should obtain one more starter better than Lucchesi.
Because his injury I would like to amend my projection.
120 IP, 3.54 ERA, 124 K’s, 31 BB, 15 HR
Wobbit made some great points, and I also believe that Carrasco will battle Stroman and become the #2 pitcher on the staff as far as overall quality starts goes. In 32 starts, these are my numbers for Carlos.
182 IP 3.41 ERA 178 K (yes I know, I’m being a heretic to the age and not giving him quite a K per inning); 52 BB 23 HR…. and a 15-7 mark.
Lots of optimism here, so I’m going with that vibe.
171 IP 3.45 ERA 175 K 51 BB 21 HR
And, of course, blessed with good health.
150 IP, 3.60 ERA, 160 K, 42 BB, 18 HR