The Mets have had, by all accounts, a terrific offseason. Steve Cohen has done a particularly good job of improving the team on the field. Most projections put the Mets in the lead for the division crown and in a position to challenge for the World Series. Should the Mets be confident in that? Or should they strengthen their position to drive for a multi-year run?
Given the margins of error in prediction system, the Mets should push for a better team.
There have been lots of trade rumors around the Mets and Kris Bryant. For some the bloom is off the rose for Bryant – after his MVP season, he played well in 2017, but saw declines the last three seasons. With Bryant’s stock at its lowest, the Mets should try to bring him into the fold by trading from a position of strength.
Bryant is projected to outperform the Mets at third base by two wins. In a straight-up trade, J.D. Davis for Kris Bryant, the Cubs would be relieved of about $19M of payroll, and the Mets would improve by two more wins. It seems unlikely the Cubs would make that trade. The Mets would need to sweeten the deal. Where is the Mets strength? Currently the Mets have three people to play center field, with one of them not really being a center fielder.
Trading Brandon Nimmo and Davis for Bryant decreases the overall improvement by about one win but adds a superstar caliber player. With the Cubs signing Joc Pederson this may seem unnecessary, but Nimmo is under team control until 2023, and Davis until 2025, and Nimmo projects substantially better in left field than Pederson, and the Mets have a better left fielder in Dominic Smith. End to end, this trade would improve the Mets by a win or more, and any bounce back from Bryant increases that.
One of the buying arguments for the Cubs would be in the hopes that a longer negotiation period could bring the Designated hitter to the National League, and that is clearly Davis’ best position. The Cubs would improve by a win and the Mets would improve by a win; the Cubs would shed payroll, and the Mets would be looking to secure a longer playoff run.
The biggest barrier to the Mets trading for Bryant is they are nearing the luxury tax (pay $75). They are about “one Kris Bryant salary” from it, which presses the need to trade some salary back in Nimmo. The luxury tax is also only an issue if the team does not win.
From a practical perspective, it makes sense to say, “do the Mets need to make another move?” As you read earlier this week, maybe a little, but not really on the offense. This trade is less for offense and more for defense.
As noted, the Mets are likely playoff bound, so adding Bryant does not do much from a marginal win perspective, at first blush. Pushing the Mets from a division winner to a league-leading wins number makes a big difference with respect to home field advantage, and that could make or break a World Series title.
Yes, there is some concern that having Francisco Lindor and Bryant both as pending Free Agents could be a concern, signing both for another 7 years/$250M really anchors the Mets through the 2020s.
Fielding a team of Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Lindor, Bryant, Smith, (to be determined), Michael Conforto is good for pitchers. The team would be in the playoff hunt for as long as the pitching held up.
There is a difference between players like Kris Bryant and players like J.D. Davis and what they bring to the team. Davis is a good hitter, but Bryant brings much more.
In the end trading for Bryant would do a couple of high-level things. It would make the Mets commit to two players, and possibly more due to upcoming free agency for Marcus Stroman, Conforto, and Noah Syndergaard.
Building a baseball team isn’t easy, but a good rule is to get long-term players as soon as you can, and win long-term.
This seems like a bad idea to me. Nimmo is the starting centerfielder at this point and his OBP skills for hitting leadoff are unmatched. Trading him would mean either Pillar or Almora becomes the starting centerfielder. Fine for defense, but really taking a major bite out of the offense, particularly against right handed pitchers (most of them).
The Davis vs. Bryant discussion is interesting. Both had down years last year. Bryant has been moved around the field by the Cubs – if he were the superstar defender there, they wouldn’t be playing him in the outfield at all.
I might trade Davis even up for Bryant. Davis and Nimmo for a one year player seems to be a lot too much. The Cubs do not seem to be ready for a simple salary dump at this point, and until they are, no thanks.
I don’t like the proposed trade at all, a declining player with a hefty contract who could well just be a 1 year rental for 2 very useful and productive young players
Nimmo is useful. Davis is a DH, and if we had a DH, Alfonso or Smith would DH.
No, no, no! I wouldn’t even go for a Davis for Bryant straight up deal! Haven’t we seen enough of aging & past their peak infielders, with bloated salaries being dumped/taken by us? At this point, I would hope that Davis has more of an upside then Bryant, despite his flaws as a fielder.
It wasn’t ancient history when we had a young, exciting infielder (McNeil), being blocked by our importing an overpriced druggie (Cano). How did that work out?
Davis is 15 months younger than Bryant. Davis has less success, he isn’t really significantly younger.
I’ve come around on this. If it could be done without giving up too much I would sign him for just the one year with no intention of extending him. Bryant has a lot to prove and is healthy and playing for a big contract. Could be like what the Braves did with Donaldson a few years ago.
I am admittedly on the fence but am really worried about what everyday Davis and Nimmo are going to cough up defensively.
The recriminations your Bryant trade will affect Syndergaard, Stroham and Conforto’s salary negotiations in the future as well the loss of controllability of Nimmo and Davis. Bryant is a good player but he trending downward and 2020 was a terrible year for him. He is a better 3B than Davis but he has a career -3 Rdrs/yr. Your deal is too risky for the gain.
If the Mets would want to bank on a player to have a comeback year then they only have to look at their roster. John Villar had a 3.9 bWAR in 2019 and has a career 0 Rdrs/yr at 2B. Moved McNeil to 3B where he has a career +24 Rdrs/yr and solve the problem of Davis’ defensive liability (-29 Rdrs/yr). At the least , the Mets should look as this possibility in spring training.
I would have preferred McNeil at 3B and gotten Dj LeMahieu, or even signing Kolten Wong. But the Mets missed those chances. Given that, and the Arenado trade, this seems like the best chance to take another step forward.
There is no chance I would give up Davis and Nimmo for Bryant. If we were talking Davis for Bryant straight up I might give it thought, but you are likely getting a one year rental in Bryant. That may not be the worst thing if we are all in on this year, but Bryant’s salary may have an impact on adding players at the deadline. No one knows what may be needed at the deadline but if there is a significant injury or some pitchers don’t perform, etc. this could limit the options some. Davis for Bryant, maybe. Adding Nimmo and I laugh at the Cubs.
Any front office that uses salary as an excuse not to win at the trade deadline is just lying, or doesn’t believe they have a shot. The revenues associated with a World Championship (or playoffs in general) greatly outweigh a rental player for the stretch run.
We have a crowded left field. Dom is 2 baseball years younger, and a better hitter. Nimmo hasn’t handled Center field well, and he’s on the wrong side of speed graphs, meaning, he’s going to get worse. Something has to give there.
The salary issue is just one consideration. The main thing is I wouldn’t give up Nimmo for a rental. Nimmo is someone I want to see here long term. LF is the better spot for him and with the likelihood of the DH in 2022 if not 2021 that’s where Nimmo should end up with Dom and Pete at 1st and DH.
Nimmo is a FA after 2022, so you get one season of him if there is a DH.
Not sure the concern over salary. Those are fake restrictions.
Do you know who would make this trade ? Brodie Van Wagenen.
And why do we think that Kris Bryant is suddenly going to turn back into superb players after three years of mediocrity?
And what do we do with Bryant when Brett Baty is ready to play ?
Bad trade, not worth it.
I don’t want Kris Bryant. He’s declining, he’s fragile, he’s expensive. Giving up better, younger, cheaper talent is what the old Mets would do. I guess we’ll find out if Steve Cohen is truly a smarter owner.
I do not think that JDDavis will cost the Mets that many games at 3B, especially if Guillorme platoons and finishes games there.
Bryant looks like a huuuuuge albatross. Not every declining player has the motivation to surge back to dominance. I believe the over-priced superstar will be trending downward now into the foreseeable future. Let the Cubs deal with their declining talent… they won a ring with him… luckily BVW is gone…
No thank you.
Let’s see how things transpire in CF at 3B first, and go from there.
We don’t have to – we have the sample sizes to determine what is likely to happen.
Yes, we do have the sample sizes, and yes, Bryant, in the context of one year, is the more certain performer. However, trading two years of Nimmo and four years of Davis for one year of Bryant is not worth the margin win projection increase for one season. I don’t think it’s even close, and if Nimmo plays hit natural position of LF, he will likely exceed Bryant’s WAR himself.
I would take Bryant over Davis for Davis and a below top 15 prospect or pass and solve the issue(s), should it be issue(s), at a later time, either internally or externally.
Nimmo outperform Bryant? Possible, but unlikely. Even if we allow that they are similar hitters and similar defenders at their primary position, 3B is a full win more important than LF, and, and this is important, if Nimmo plays LF, Dom sits.
Nimmo won’t play LF with the Mets (or Dom won’t). We should trade one of them. I vote for the older, worse defensive one.
Chris, we can go back and forth on the projections, which is what makes the debate fun. I do agree with a number of your points. I’ll just add that there are multiple reasons why Dom would not play LF – injury to him or Alonso, DH in NL, performance issues. It’s not only that you’d have to “bench” him to play Nimmo. Also, in a corner OF provides coverage for a Conforto injury in 2021 and a Conforto departure in 2022, a season where (if there is no strike) there will almost certainly be a DH in the NL. MLB has Nimmo in its top 100…I really want two controllable years of him.
We can have a fun-time wager!
It’s a pleasure to see the readers who respond on this blog have the good sense to give a thumbs down to this proposed trade. The reasons stated seem to me to be exactly right. Why is it that people are always trying to trade Nimmo to another team? I just don’t get that.
Because if the Mets are going to play Conforto and Smith, there is no good place to play Nimmo.
Centerfield and lead-off hitter is a good place to play Nimmo. Granted, leftfield and lead-off hitter would be even better, but there is no better centerfield option on the team now. What Pillar and Almora would give you on defense would be more than negated by having their bats in the regular lineup over Nimmo.
WAR addresses those – the overall value of Bryant+ assorted CF has more value than Davis + Nimmo
fWAR projections:
Steamer – Bryant (3.2) + Pillar (0.1) = 3.3
ZiPS – Bryant (2.6) + Pillar (0.7) = 3.3
Steamer – Davis (1.5) + Nimmo (2.0) = 3.5
ZiPS – Davis (0.8) + Nimmo (2.5) = 3.3
Maybe – maybe – you get fractional more out of other CF than Pillar. But it’s not anywhere near enough to justify the extra money for Bryant.
My sense is that Nimmo will be worth more than 2.x WAR this year. For nothing else other than my amateur prediction ability, I expect him to have a good year.
I also project Bryant will bounce back and have a solid year.
I hope WAR takes into account the rising of Nimmo, Smith, and Davis and the declining of Bryant.
This is the season we will hopefully find to what extent Nimmo, JD, and Dom are for real.
If Nimmo’s stats go up, and he manages to play 150+ games, we know that we have a high-quality OFer.
If Dom manages to maintain his numbers from the last two very shortened seasons, then he becomes a valuable piece in anyone’s puzzle. I trade neither for an aging player.
If JD hits .300 and improves defensively even a little, … a steal. I know Guillorme will hit and field above average… Bryant not needed. How good is Baty?
WAR takes that into account.
Why would Nimmo’s offense improve? He’s likely to hit well, and field poorly. Because that what he has done. Davis is likely to hit well, and field horrifically.
I don’t know why people keep saying “aging”. Bryant is 29 this season, and Nimmo and Davis are 28. Bryant just started earlier (because he’s much better).
I believe the Mets should give Davis a good long look this year. Young players need time to grow both defensively and offensively. It is the rare player who is at his best at the start of his career. Almost everyone needs a few years to reach their peak. It has been a pattern over the decades for the Mets to give up on young players to get more established ones. I believe that is because of the pressure in New York, esp. from the media, to win now. So sometimes the Mets make it to the playoffs and even the Series, but there has never been long-term consistency. You need a blend of higher-priced stars and low-cost talented young players (who project to be stars and maybe already are) to be successful year after year. If Davis bombs then Bryant will be available as a free agent next year, but we need to see what he can do before assuming the worst.
Why do you keep saying Davis is “young”? He isn’t. Dom Smith is young(ish). Fernando Tatis Jr is young.
JamesTOB is very astute on every comment. I love home-growing the talent, which involves developing the young players to get better, round out their skills. Minor league coaching staffs should be working hard to improve every skill needed. But:
– How is it pitchers arrive often with no ability whatsoever to hold runners on better? While everyone extols Andy Petite… so why not steal his methods?
– How is it players, and especially middle-infielders and pitchers, arrive unable to bunt in every situation? I have seen the Mets NOT execute the bunt so many times, and I know it has cost them games. Still a very productive play as long as we play baseball.
As John Smoltz points out frequently, the well-executed safety squeeze is virtually impossible to stop. Nothing like that 8th-inning insurance run pushing across. Great teams have well-rounded players. Mets… not so much.
+`1 Nothing like the squeeze play. Every player should be able to bunt. There is no excuse for having a runner on third base with less than two outs and him not scoring. I get it if they are up or down by 2 or more runs, but if the game is tied late or they are up or down 1, get that guy across with a well executed bunt and then work on the rest of the inning. (sorry, a bit off topic from the article, but following Wobbit’s comment)
Hitting behind runners . . taking extra bases .. stealing bases . . major category is good fundamental baseball.
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+2