There are many reasons for optimism as the Mets get Spring Training underway here in 2021, perhaps none more so than new shortstop Francisco Lindor. He comes to the Mets in the prime of his career, with a million-dollar smile, a reputation as a two-way star and a 7.7 fWAR season under his belt. Expectations are sky-high for Lindor, so let’s see what the computer models forecast for him this season. FanGraphs has started to use abbreviations on their pages for the projections and we’ll follow suit. MtM is Marcel or Marcel the Monkey since that was the impetus for the name.
ATC – 664 PA, .265/.332/.467, 28 HR, 81 RBIs
BAT – 710 PA, .268/.332/.472, 31 HR, 94 RBIs
MtM – 625 PA, .269/.339/.482, 28 HR, 73 RBIs
RCh – 655 PA, .275/.340/.496. 30 HR, 77 RBIs
STE – 682 PA, .267/.340/.491, 33 HR, 89 RBIs
ZiPS – 700 PA, .268/.335/.487, 32 HR, 88 RBIs
All six of these systems have him within a few points of most likely AVG and OBP. The HR are also very similar, once you factor in playing time. Lindor’s been in the league for six years now so it’s not a surprise that the models show this much general agreement.
Steamer and ZiPS go one step further and give an fWAR projection, too. And it’s no surprise given what we see above that the numbers here are almost identical, too. Steamer has him with a 5.0 projection while ZiPS has him at 5.1 for the year. He’s going to contribute on defense and on the basepaths, in addition to the batter’s box.
Lindor, all by himself, should provide the Mets with about a 3-Win upgrade from what they would have had without him at shortstop this season. That’s fantastic improvement. You want to accumulate as many 3.0 or greater WAR players as you can and to get a 5-WAR guy at shortstop is tremendous.
Among position players, those projections have Lindor tied for eighth-highest fWAR in ZiPS and 11th in the Steamer universe. That means he’s in the running for top shortstop in the game. He’s not in the running for best player in the game. He’s not in the Mike Trout/Mookie Betts level of performance. That’s not a knock on Lindor – it’s just an honest assessment of what to expect.
That 7.7 fWAR he posted at age 24 back in 2018 may have created unrealistic expectations. Bryce Harper had a 9.3 fWAR at age 22 back in 2015 and he hasn’t had a 5-WAR season since. Mike Greenwell posted a 7.8 fWAR in his age-24 season in 1988. Greenwell never even reached a 4.0 fWAR season the rest of his time in the majors. Cesar Cedeno had a combined 14.9 fWAR in his age 21 and 22 seasons. He never had higher than a 5.6 fWAR season the rest of his career.
Typically, we don’t think of a player’s career year occurring in his early 20s. But it happens. If Lindor posts a year in line with what Steamer and ZiPS forecasts for him, that would be outstanding and something we should be glad to get. Let’s not be disappointed if he fails to match or exceed his 2018 output. Here’s my totally biased prediction for Lindor this year:
680 PA, .280/.335/.470, 27 HR, 80 RBIs
You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you expect Lindor to do this season.
695 PA, .270/.345/.490, 30 HR, 90 RBIs
I tend to agree with Brian’s shading. Fewer HRs and higher BA, which I would prefer. A higher BA means fewer outs, more ABs for guys hitting behind him with runners on base, fewer innings ending with his AB, more stress on opposing pitchers… all sorts of subtle advantages to team offense and to the win column.
If McNeil can hit .320 in front of him, Lindor hits with gaps in the defense more, pitcher from the stretch and under duress… furthering his effectiveness. Call me an optimist, but in a contract year, a new team, and a fairly potent lineup, I see Lindor maxxing out his numbers:
650AB / .286 / .350 / .450/ 26 HR / 95 RBI/ 20 SB / 100 R
I still see Lindor as the perfect #2 hitter in a Mets projected lineup. I think Nimmo will be leading off instead of McNeil, but I guess that’s what spring training will eventually sort out. I’m looking at a great year for Lindor, who I think will not wilt in the hot house atmosphere that is New York.
PA 697 HR 32 RBI 89 AVG .285 I see him scoring over 100 runs (like Wobbit), and reach 24 stolen bases (despite the hitters behind him). Oh yeah, a gold glove also!
685 PA .285/.345/.465, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 5.2 bWAR. Fewer HR in Citi, but more doubles & triples.
650 AB .285/.350/.480 25 HR 98 RBI
I like McNeil #2 because I want someone who is high contact, great strike zone coverage, good bat control… still a table-setter. With Lindor’s HR production, #2 comes too early in the lineup. At #3 with McNeil and Nimmo ahead of him, he will much more rarely hit with the bases empty.
I know that Judge hits #2 in the Bronx, and I think it’s wrong. Yankees better off hitting Hicks #2… takes tons of pitches. But then, they hit Jeter #1 when he hit .240. Please nobody tell them…
You’ve a good point regarding Lindor hitting lower in the lineup to utilize his power. It’s just that Nimmos & McNeil hit from the left, and the Mets tend to have a history of staggering their lineup L/R (or R/L). Lindor being a switch hitter would break that when batting 2nd…….then again, I just blew up my argument if the Mets face a righty, didn’t I?
I’m sure Brian will have the batting splits of all the potential regulars at his fingertips and will be able to construct an “ideal” Mets lineup when facing a lefty or a righty.
How about it Mr. Journa?
710 PA, 658 AB, 198 H, 45 2B, 12 3B, 24 HR, 22 SB, 122 R, 89 RBI, .301/.351/.515
Something tells me Guillorme is going to be Lindor’s DP partner most of the year, and they will create magic together.
Extension: 9/$300, but it may not be in the spring
You think McNeil will be at 3rd? I could see that but they seem to have committed to Jeff at 2nd.
Bob, whether it’s by a rotation of guys or an injury, the best second baseman on the roster is Guillorme. The best left fielder after Nimmo is McNeil. I don’t know how it will play out between Smith and Alonso, but let’s hope Smith put in work this past off-season and didn’t do like Alonso did the year before just soaking in his arrival. Maybe it’s just my wishful thinking…
700 PA , .285/346/488, 29 HR, 86 RBI’s and a 5.5+ WAR.
I think he will have his typical offense year but his defense will be outstanding.