The New York Post‘s Mike Puma had a mini Dellin Betances update on Tuesday. Turns out that not only was his velocity down last year but his mechanics were a mess, too. Here’s what manager Luis Rojas said about Betances:
“We are where we want him to be compared to where we were last year coming into camp,” Rojas said. “The vertical movement of the fastball, for example, or the horizontal or vertical movement of the breaking pitches. Those types of things, the extension, where his head position is when he’s releasing the ball or where his arm action is. Those are some of the things of focus we talked about in the offseason and we’re trying to see in his first couple of sides.”
Betances was a huge disappointment last year. In the few games he actually appeared in, he seemed like a glorified junk baller. It’s hard to have any confidence in him whatsoever for 2021. It would be nice to see the guy who pitched for the Yankees but we shouldn’t wager on that outcome.
To continue the above referenced pitcher, he has said that he may need to adjust to lower velocity. That “coming into camp” is very telling. In September they had to just shut Betances down to work on mechanics last year. If he has to be completely rebuilt, then he’s no different from any of the NRI’s in that you don’t know what the end result will be and I wonder if you know when he’s maxed out his improvement.
And yet these guys continue to want to pitch late in games? Screw their ego…
The bullpen is the only area where I believe there is a ton of open competition. The bench battle comes down to the fact that Guillorme’s positional flexibility makes him a lock and Jose Martinez winds up the short straw being sent to AAA. The rotation battle is really just David Peterson proving his 2020 was legit against Lucchesi and Yamamoto which could be heated but lacks flavor. The bullpen battle is pretty wide open.
Locks: Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Aaron Loup
Likely: Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro
Possible: Drew Smith, Franklyn Kilome, Stephen Tarpley, Jacob Barnes, Sam McWilliams, Daniel Zamora, Sean Reid-Foley, Robert Gsellman, Arodys Vizcaino, Jerad Eickhoff, Mike Montgomery and Jerry Blevins
There could be lots of scenarios coming out of Spring Training with limited time to prove oneself. My early favorites (assuming the likely players don’t explode) are Drew Smith and either Stephen Tarpley or Daniel Zamora (because more than one lefty reliever would be nice).
My guess is that Familia and his $11M is a lock and I’m not sure by the words I’m seeing that Betances is really likely. I don’t know if they can have him go to Syracuse to get in some work or maybe extended spring training, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he is not one of the 8 best breaking camp.
I kinda like Lucchesi and McWilliams groomed as ‘long’, or multi-inning guys.
Smith and Zamora are both on my list as under the radar players that will help the Mets at some point in 2021.
Gotta go with Peterson. Like Lucchesi too. Really need lefties.
Familia,,Betances, aahhhh,those FA signings! Just how often do they work out?
I hope that the FO will consider the sunk cost factor with Familia and Betances. They are incurring the cost of those salaries regardless of whether they throw a pitch for the team or not. If one of the other bullpen options is going to be better, go with them and cut bait on anyone who is not producing. If Familia and/or Betances are pitching better than the other options, great, but if someone is better I wouldn’t hang onto these guys because they make more, or because I’m clinging to the hope that they will revert to their production from 3 years ago. It would be awesome if either could be productive and effective but I wouldn’t count on it.
I will also admit that I was ok with both signings at the time they were done. They just havn’t worked out so well.
Betances is a notoriously slow starter if my recollection is accurate, even prior to his injuries. I seem to remember velocity concerns in late spring while with the Yankees. Additionally, those tall guys seem to have more mechanics challenges. Betances really hasn’t throw much in the last 2 1/2 years. Under this ownership, I expect the Mets to be more aggressive in parting with sunk cost players. However, given Betances’ pedigree, relatively young age, and only having thrown about 400 MLB innings, this is a guy I can be patient with…especially if he agrees to “extended spring training” if the situation merits. If he returns to 85-90% of this 2017 self, it could be the difference in the NL East.
I was never ok with Familia, and I was glad when he left the team the first time. And the three-year deal seemed crazy to me. No question the guy has stuff, but I value relievers who throw strikes.
With Betances, it seemed worth a gamble. But as Bob P. says, know when to pull the plug… I’m trusting that they will.
I’m taking the glass half full approach with expectations for Betances. This year’s Trevor Rosenthal-like comeback! Mark it down.
So much of what we write as fans is based on our hopes and fears. I was remembering when Familia and Mejia were two of our top prospects. Mejia blew up his career with PEDs and is in the Red Sox organization. Pondering the criticism Familia gets I looked at his stats. He had those two phenomenal years in 2015-16, when he was probably overused. He didn’t pitch much in 2017 because of surgery on an artery in his shoulder. In 2018 he had an ERA of 2.88 while with the Mets; in 2019, he had a down year with a 5.70 ERA, but still struck out more batters than innings pitched. He walked a horrendous 42 batters in 60 innings, but it should be noted that he always had a high walk rate, though not that high. Then in 2020, he got his ERA down to 3.71 even though he surrendered 19 walks in 25 innings. So it strikes me that Familia is still a pretty good pitcher, notwithstanding 2019. Anymore a pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 is considered good. That he sustains so much criticism reflects fans’ fears that he will be worse, but it doesn’t seem to me that such an opinion is necessary given his rebound in 2020. As with all these relievers, we need to wait and see what they do. Projections aren’t worth all the much with most relievers who notoriously have up and down years. As a fan, I always try to view the team and its players with hope. I know I’ve been disappointed many times, but it isn’t much fun to root for a team when one’s thoughts about the players are full of fear. I feel the same way about Davis. I hope he’ll have a great year and his defense won’t be nearly as much of an issue as some amateur prognosticators think it will be. Cheers!
Like this mindset
Perfect . .well written comment. I have been doing a fairly deep dive into Familia’s stats, mostly with the emphasis on how he is used – coming into a game in the middle of an inning or starting an inning; if in the middle of an inning with runners on base; save situation or not; how much rest . . .
I’m not completely done yet, but find that he is a better pitcher when starting an inning than when coming in to clean up somebody else’s mess.
I agree with you . .other than a walk rate that is too high, and his lousy 2019, he has been a pretty good reliever. I’m pretty sure he would have gotten a major league contract had he been a FA after 2020. He strikes out a lot of batters and throws a bunch of ground balls (which he as been bitten by to some degree).
I’m looking forward to your full analysis. Thanks.
More on tthe bullpen concern in my Friday post. Also, I just had a really happy little Mets thought. We haven’t seen Pete Alonso in the playoffs yet. That’s gonna be fun.
There’s talk that MLB has deadened the ball.
Opinions? Is this good or bad for Mets as they are currently configured?
Are we heading into the kind of deadball era not seen since late 60s to early 70s?
It’s more than talk.
“MLB anticipates the changes will be subtle, and a memo to teams last week cited an independent lab that found the new balls will fly 1 to 2 feet shorter when hit over 375 feet.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/02/08/ap-source-mlb-slightly-deadening-ball-amid-hr-surge/115452828/
We’d have to figure out how many HR are 375 feet or more and how many of those were wall scrapers or tape measure blasts. My guess is that the majority of HR are pulled and travel less than 375 feet. And a lot of the homers that are over 375 feet long are well over that amount, where 2 feet won’t make any difference.
I guess I’d be surprised if homers fell by 5% due strictly to the deadened ball.
Maybe they want to see more guys on base! Action! Maybe a steal attempt? Something other than the lumberjacks swinging for the downs repeatedly and if they strikeout, so what?
Now the loogy is gone and the good glove/no hit infielder is gone And the third string catcher is gone and the LH power hitter is gone in this era of Hrs,walks and K’s