What if the Mets imposed a “no-trade” ban on Brodie Van Wagenen?

Five years ago, an article was posted here with the premise of the Mets not making a trade in a dozen years. Little did anyone think we would have to revisit that topic again so soon. Except this time, it’s not a dozen years, it’s two years. Would the Mets be better now if when they hired Brodie Van Wagenen, they restricted him from making any trades? Van Wagenen gets props for how he handled the two amateur drafts under his watch. So, let’s keep the positive and eliminate the negative.

Of course, the big one is his first trade, when he sent five players away to import Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. But that was hardly the only deal Van Wagenen made in his two-year stint. Let’s look at all of his trades, focusing on the players likely to make an impact on the 2021 Mets or future clubs, in either direction. No point in listing Keon Broxton, who was lousy while he was here, or Jay Bruce, who would have helped in 2019 but not likely to make much difference in 2021. Let’s start with the ones who left:

Left – Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Felix Valerio, Luis Santana, Kevin Plawecki, Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson, Blake Taylor, Kennedy Corona, Jordan Humphreys, Steve Villines, Ryder Ryan, Kevin Smith
Came – Cano, Diaz, J.D. Davis, Marcus Stroman, Miguel Castro

Dunn, Plawecki, Kay and Taylor would all be likely candidates for the Opening Day roster. And perhaps Kelenic, too, if he was completely healthy and the Mets followed the path that Van Wagenen did with Pete Alonso and not play service time games with him, like the Mariners appear to be doing. Woods Richardson and Smith would be top 20 prospects and the others would make the top 50 list.

Without Van Wagenen’s trades, the Mets would be missing at least two and maybe three big pieces from the current 2021 team. They’d have a big hole at closer, they’d be down an SP2 or SP3, depending on how you view Stroman, and they’d be minus the RHB of Davis, even if you don’t think he’s starting material.

If not allowed to trade, Van Wagenen would have made other moves, perhaps even re-signing Todd Frazier to play 3B instead of trading for him. And Sandy Alderson’s moves this past offseason would have been different, too. Perhaps the money that went on a QO to Stroman would have been made for a reliever, instead. Perhaps Dominic Smith would have been traded to bring in a starter to replace Stroman or a righty-hitting 3B.

Without predicting a Smith blockbuster, and looking at a 13/13 hitter/pitcher split, here’s what the Opening Day roster could look like:

Brandon Nimmo
Francisco Lindor
Jeff McNeil
Pete Alonso
Michael Conforto
James McCann
Kelenic
Luis Guillorme

Reserves – Plawecki, Smith, Jonathan Villar, Albert Almora, Kevin Pillar

Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Justin Dunn, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson
Liam Hendriks (big FA pickup instead of Stroman), Trevor May, Aaron Loup, Blake Taylor, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Drew Smith, Jordan Yamamoto

Maybe Kay makes the club as a third lefty out of the pen instead of Smith or Yamamoto. Or maybe Steven Matz is still kicking around, as Alderson didn’t need to trade him to fill out the 40-man. Perhaps Smith and Matz could have been two big pieces in a trade for Matt Chapman. It’s fun to think about the lineup with Chapman and Kelenic.

But it would come down to what you think about Dunn in the rotation. Stroman has the uncertainty of coming off the year where he opted out. But at least he has a history of MLB success on his side, complete with an All-Star berth. Meanwhile, in 14 games in the majors, Dunn has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.395 WHIP. Is a back-of-the-rotation trio of Dunn-Walker-Peterson enough for a team with visions of 95 wins dancing in their head?

There are always things that would play out different in this alternate universe. Perhaps one that doesn’t jump immediately to mind is if the Mets kept Kelenic, would they have drafted Pete Crow Armstrong? The idea is to draft the top guy on your board but did the Mets push up Crow Armstrong to help cushion the blow of losing Kelenic?

And let’s not forget that without these trades there wouldn’t be the anchor of Cano. Without him stinking up the joint in 2019 – and without him giving Conforto a concussion and rendering him sub-replacement for one-third of the year – perhaps the Mets make the playoffs. Ah, a boy can dream.

We see how these trades have not helped the club. But another one of those things that doesn’t immediately jump to mind is how the Cano end of things worked out better than the Mets had any right to hope. With the truncated season of 2020 and his drug suspension in 2021, the Mets will end up paying him roughly $31.6 million fewer than they would have had to if there wasn’t a pandemic and if he hadn’t been popped for PEDs. Again. With Steve Cohen in the ownership chair, we don’t have to have a hyper focus on payroll. But that’s not ashtray money, even for Cohen.

So, even in this look how things could have been better, it’s a good reminder that things can always be worse.