Michael Conforto had a fantastic year in 2020. If he kept that pace up over a 162-game season, he would have posted a 5.4 fWAR. My sincere hope is that everyone who is reading this knows that Conforto’s tremendous year was the result of an unsustainable BABIP. If instead of a .412 BABIP, he had posted his career .294 in the category, and lost only singles in this process, he would have slashed .243/.343/.436 – which is nothing about which to get excited. Let’s see what the computer models forecast for him in 2021:
ATC – 628 PA, .261/.360/.475, 28 HR, 86 RBIs
BAT – 660 PA, .258/.356/.469, 19 HR, 89 RBIs
MtM – 579 PA, .260/.362/.472, 26 HR, 78 RBIs
RCh – 609 PA, .269/.369/.489, 29 HR, 86 RBIs
STE – 648 PA, .255/.362/.482, 32 HR, 92 RBIs
ZiPS – 608 PA, .264/.368/.475, 27 HR, 93 RBIs
If you didn’t know about the BABIP and you saw a guy who slashed .322/.412/.515 as a 27 year old, you’d probably be pretty underwhelmed with these forecasts. But, as we’d expect with a veteran hitter, these are all pretty similar. The four that appear on FanGraphs all have him with a wRC+ between 124 and 126. Perhaps the most surprising things from the computer models is that they all expect a full season’s worth of playing time. THE BAT’s forecast of 660 PA would be a career-high for Conforto.
Some have stated that Conforto’s approach last year of hitting to all fields should be considered. And he did pull fewer balls and went up the middle more often. Lifetime he pulled the ball 33% of the time and went up the middle 49% and last year those numbers were 22% and 56%, respectively. It brings up an interesting theoretical discussion. Do you want a 30-homer guy being content to make contact and go up the middle?
If the hits fall in at the rate that they did last year, then the answer is absolutely yes.
Since we know that’s not going to happen, let’s ask the question a different way. Is a Conforto with a .290 AVG and 25 HR more valuable than one with a .260 AVG and 35 HR? It’s almost fashionable now to be down on power, to prefer contact and running the bases. Perhaps the 1970s Astroturf game is more fun to watch. My preference is to watch whatever style results in the most wins for the Mets. And my belief is that the 10 extra homers is more valuable than the 30 points in AVG in maximizing wins.
My hope is that Conforto looks to pull the ball more in 2021 but it’s difficult to imagine him heading into the season with that goal. He had such great success last year with going up the middle and you know that Chili Davis is a proponent of hitting to all fields, too. Can he be flexible with his approach, looking to go up the middle or the other way with RISP but looking to drive the ball in the other trips to the plate? Or look for power early in the count and switch gears as the AB progresses? Perhaps the ideal for Conforto is to look for contact against LHP and look for power against RHP.
The fear is that Conforto looks to keep everything the same as last year, the hits don’t fall in at an elevated rate and then he’s left scrambling to change his approach to maximize his value as he heads towards free agency. Hey, at least it’s different than the usual concern with Conforto, in that he experiences yet another body part getting injured. Here’s my totally biased prediction for Conforto in 2021:
555 PA, .275/.365/.460, 22 HR, 82 RBIs
You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Conforto will do this year.
In a programming note, the goal is to get an Edwin Diaz projection, my annual prediction column and an Open Thread published before first pitch of Opening Day. Most likely to work out to be two pieces tomorrow and the Open Thread on Thursday.
Conforto will benefit from several factors this season.
1. Contract year.
2. Consistent position in batting order (3 or 4)
3. More runners on base.
4. Greater maturity and strike zone discipline.
That beautiful lefty swing will not diminish this year… he should maximize his offensive potential. A lot depends on those around him. If Nimmo, Lindor maximize, and if Pete has a big year, I cannot imagine Conforto not driving in 100, hitting .275, with 30HR. He is the one guy that can get hot and carry the team with consistency and power. If they have to pitch to him, he will produce.
I think there are a couple of things to consider. If a team has an abundance of power, then average would be a more valuable asset but a team with a power deficiency would probably benefit from those 8-10 HRs. As far as 2021 projections:
590 PAs – .271/.362/.488, 29 HR, 91 RBIs – throw in 6 SBs too.
620 PA, .269/.358/504, 30 HR, 87 RBI’s
He is going to have a solid season.
With Lindor & Conforto being the first back-to-back .300 hitters in a Met lineup since … (Help me out here), I’m seein’:
625PA .300/.367/.513 31HR 101RBI
Less btw if he signs a big contract early.
I like hitters going for contact vs. homers, but in a macho major league dugout, power will prevail when one can hit dingers. I don’t think we’ll see multiple .300+ hitters in the lineup Hobie, and even McNeil will barely reach that mark because he can hit homers.
Wobbit; your points regarding the benefits for Conforto are well stated, and should be considered. I’m not sure if the Mets will talk/extend him though….if he has a monster year, I think his demands will go up accordingly, and corner OF is a position that can be filled. I think either way, this is going to be a public relation disaster for Cohen & the Mets.
PA 580 .265/.359/.490 HR 31 RBI 94, too many Ks & not as patient as one would like. Oh, and a stint on the disabled list.
640 PA, .265/.365/.480, 29 HR, 90 RBI
I don’t see Conforto as the type of player who will play exceedingly well just because it’s his walk year. He seems more the type to play his best regardless of his contract status. I expect it will be his last year as a Met as he’ll want the same AAV as Springer, but for 3 more years and the Mets won’t pay that.
580 PA, .280/.350/.480, 26 HR, 98 RBI
My gut tells me this will be his last season as a Met. It will be interesting to see how he and his agent see his value, vs. how the Mets see his value.
I’m not bailing on my guy. I will double down on my expectations that years of below average BABIP will be followed by several years of above average. When seeing Conforto’s numbers in 2018, 2019, we see:
– A player that came back too early off that shoulder injury in 2018 and had a poor first half to the tune of .216/.344/.366/.710. The second half of the year he put up .273/.356/.539/.895.
– Picking up where he left off, he started 2019 with a .271/.406/.521/.926 line until May 17th. Then, Robinson Cano couldn’t hear him calling him off a shallow fly and kneed him in the head resulting in a concussion. This was another setback that although out just ten days, he should have been out longer. It’s very possible Dr. Jeff Wilpon threw his weight around to get Conforto on the field? Who knows. But we do know the Mets had a #3 hitter that sucked and wouldn’t be moved from the spot (Cano) and a team that was spiraling and all hands were needed on deck irregardless of their mental state. From July 16th til season’s end, Conforto’s line rebounded to .276/.370/.524/.894.
Using these pretty decent sample sizes of performances when healthy and accounting for a loaded (don’t want to jinx our boys) lineup that will have more protection than pre-2019 seasons that forced Conforto to be more of a power hitter than his sweet swing called for, will give me ammunition to say:
.288/.380/.522/.902 29 HR, 98R, 101 RBI, 631 PA
and a contract extension in May at a team friendly 6/$126MM
Completely right, Gus. Even to recall correctly Cano’s disastrous and overly casual misplay of the pop that derailed any momentum for Conforto. I expect that considering the major points you astutely raised here, we have yet to see the full extent of what Michael can do. A solid lineup around him, a fully healthy body, and a secure place on a team that understands his value will lead to a most productive year.
My prediction is that there will be a tussle with Conforto/Boras well overplaying Conforto’s (generally high) value. I expect Conforto to ask 240M$ (say over 8 years for a 30M$ AAV), but I dont see the fist number being a 2 in a long term deal, or perhaps exactly 2 – meaning 8/200 with a 25M AAV. Id expect more in the 8/180 range.