Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Out of last year’s batch, only three were right, although one was true for the first 59 games of the season and another just missed as the prediction was Robinson Cano would have a 10-game hitting streak and he hit in 11 out of 12, going hitless in the ninth game of the streak.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial. So, here’s the 2021 list:
After leading off 20% of the time in 2020, Jeff McNeil will not hit first in one game in 2021.
Jacob deGrom will hit 102 on the radar gun.
The Mets will have a winning record against the Braves after going 3-7 against them last year.
Brandon Nimmo’s UZR/150 will be less than half of 2020’s (-19.2)
After posting a 4.9 BB/9 last year, Edwin Diaz will notch a sub-3.0 rate this year.
The 2020 Mets had seven SP with an ERA over 5.00 and this year’s squad will not have one.
Pete Alonso will break the club’s single-season RBI mark of 124.
Marcus Stroman will have a game with at least 6 IP and have 10 fly balls or fewer.
Following a .735 OPS with RISP in ’20, the Mets will hit .800 in the category in ’21.
James McCann has a better CS% than Jerry Grote’s lifetime 37.68 mark.
Robert Gsellman gets sent to the minors/released before the end of April.
The Mets will use 25 or fewer pitchers in ’21, after using 25 in the 60-game season last year.
Michael Conforto drops over 100 points in BABIP from last year.
Matt Allan, who has one game of New York-Penn League experience, makes it to Triple-A.
The Mets will set the team record for runs, topping the 853 runs of the 1999 squad.
*****
Seemingly, each year someone responds that these don’t seem that unlikely, or agree with many of my picks. Just remember that this has been an annual column here since 2010 and not once have more been right than wrong.
I hope you’re right about our record against the Braves. That would bode well for a division win. Totally agree about the run scoring record. I feel very positive and confident in this offense.
I think that every prediction will be proven right, except for:
McCann having a better CS% than Grote’s lifetime 37.68 mark. I think McCann will be around 32%. Syndergaard’s half-season will have a large part in McCann’s numbers coming down.
Nice post though.
I agree: deGrom , the Braves, Diaz, eight starting pitchers will have a sub 5.00 ERA, Stroman, Gsellman sent down, less than 26 pitchers and Conforto.
That’s 7/15 I’m in agreement so I think you have a good chance of ending your streak. Good luck!
1. Nimmo will be the starting CF in the all-star game
2. Miguel Castro will not have a 0.00 ERA through April
3. Jeff McNeil will bat .235 in April, but hit .400 from May 1 on
4. Pete Alonso will commit fewer than 10 errors on the season (12 in 2019, 5 last year)
5. Luis Guillorme will start more than 50 games in the infield
6. Kevin Pillar will start less than 50 games in the outfield
7. Familia and Betances will each have ERAs under 4
8. Seth Lugo will have an ERA over 3
9. Jordan Yamamoto will have as many starts as David Peterson, and more than Joey Luchessi (because the Mets will use an opener for him most if not all of the time)
10. The Mets will win 94 games and finish in first place by 3 games over the Braves.
11. DeGrom will win 20, strikeout 280 and have a sub 2.20 ERA to win his 3rd Cy Young
12. 4 mets will finish in the top 15 for MVP vote getters (DeGrom, Lindor, Alonso, and Nimmo).
Edit:
Miguel Castro Will have a 0.00 era through April.
After an amazing 8 game sample size:
1. well on his way
2. whoops
3. he’ll need to pick things up to raise his avg to .235 in April
4. well on his way
5. well on his way
6. well on his way
7. Familia looks good so far. Betances would need to actually pitch again to make this happen, but I’m not so sure he will.
8. *shrug*
9. can I take this one back?
10. on pace for 101 wins
11. can i take back the number of victories?
12. could happen once the middle two pick things up.
McNeil will definitely lead off here and there… especially if needs some shaking up or if Nimmo goes down.
Against Braves, 7-11 Hope I’m wrong.
DeGrom 102, for sure.
Nimmo will improve some defensively, not twice as good, though.
Mets’ SP overall under 4.00.
Diaz decent year… one or two blowups… overall 2.75.
RISP will dramatically improve this season… has to.
Gsellman will survive April… somehow immune from reality.
Conforto will not drop that much in BABIP… hits the ball hard routinely.
Peterson will be the last of the regular SPs to lose a game.
If Guillorme gets 200 ABs, he hits .300.
Mets go 45-36 first half… on way to 88 wins.
Miami gives them fits.
Overall sub .500 against NLEast… sorry.
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Brian,
Like the Bravos are due for a run of bad luck, you are due for a season above .500. With that, I agree with all of the above except the McCann and McNeil prognostications.
Also, I expect 92 wins, at least.
Las Vegas has the over-under at 90.5 wins. I’m taking the under. My sense is 87 +/- 3 wins.
1. I’m not buying there’s a 162 game starting rotation. If most starting pitchers throw 15-18 outs the pen will get leaned on a lot.
2. I think the bullpen is already shaky and not ready to cover 3 innings every game.
3. I’d be lying if I thought the defense of Davis, Smith, Nimmo, and possibly McNeil won’t haunt us.
Well rumors swirling that Lindor is on for 10/340.
I like that. MAybe I take the over on the positivity that brings. Go Steve Cohen!