The Mets have played just eight games and the samples are too small to make any firm declarations. Sure, sure – we’ve already seen things that we completely expected, like Jacob deGrom leading the starters in ERA and Brandon Nimmo leading the hitters in OBP. But other things are not quite so predictable. But, even understanding that anything can happen in a handful of games, here are eight things that have surprised me so far in 2021.
1. The groundball relief corps – With Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, the expectation was that the pen would rack up a ton of strikeouts. And they haven’t done bad at all in this category. But did you imagine that the relievers would have a 56.7 GB%? It’s like the entire pen has decided to emulate Marcus Stroman, who has a lifetime 58.7 GB%, the third-best mark among all pitchers this century with at least 100 starts.
2. Infield corner DRS – The expectation was that if the NL adopted the DH, that Dominic Smith would man first base and Pete Alonso would be the designated hitter most games. Also, while he wasn’t expected to be the starter, we imagined that Luis Guillorme would be a defensive replacement in a fair number of games, at either 2B or 3B. But right now, Alonso has a +2 DRS while Guillorme has a (-3) DRS. Guillorme has outstanding hands but due to lack of experience, he’s not a good third baseman at this point. And if Alonso can get away from stepping across the bag into foul territory, we might have to start calling him a plus in the field.
3. The lefty strikeout artist – Last season, David Peterson had a solid ERA but his FIP was not nearly so good. A big part of that was his K/BB ratio. Peterson had a 7.25 K/9 in 2020 and this year it checks in at a 13.50 mark after two starts, which is tied with deGrom. Peterson has also cut his walks. Those two led to a 7.5 K/BB rate – quite the nice improvement from last year’s 1.67 ratio. He’s allowed 3 HR, which is keeping his FIP (and ERA) elevated. But if he can improve the strikeouts and walks, he could turn in another strong season.
4. New star’s lack of power – The Mets as a team have a disappointing slugging mark, having just 17 XBH in 298 PA. And while he has plenty of company, Francisco Lindor has just one extra-base hit, a double, in 37 PA. With three straight .200 or better ISOs on his resume, not many fans were expecting an .037 mark, even just after eight games.
5. The 96 parade – Taijuan Walker averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball last year, within a mph of what he’s done since 2016. But he’s been regularly pumping them up to the plate at 96 and we’ve seen a 97 or two creep in there, too. FanGraphs shows his average FB velocity at 94.8, which feels a little low but still represents a nice 1.6 mph gain from a season ago.
6. Hits of the wrong kind – Last year the hits fell in for Michael Conforto and the expectation was for regression in that category. And while that has indeed happened here in the early going, Conforto is piling up a different kind of hit. He has 4 HBP, which is the same amount that the entire Mets’ staff has allowed this year. It seems like there’s one guy who is an HBP magnet. A few years ago it was Nimmo and then it was Jeff McNeil. Maybe it’s just Conforto’s turn.
7. Finding bats and still succeeding – If you were to describe Stroman in one phrase, it would be “groundball pitcher.” And he’s certainly living up to that phrase in the early going. But, in an era when strikeouts are going up, Stroman has just a 4.38 K/9 so far. It’s next to impossible to maintain that low of a K rate over an entire season and be a good pitcher. Only five starters who qualified for the ERA title from 2010-2019 have a K/9 under 5.0 and an ERA of 3.75 or lower and only one since 2012. Stroman has a 0.73 ERA.
8. The swinging ways of Mr. Smith – Dominic Smith has never been one to amass free passes at a high rate. Coming into this season he had just 51 BB in 726 PA. But he’s yet to draw a single walk this season. If he were to get them at his lifetime rate, he’d probably have two right now. Not a big deal but it’s led to a unique situation where his OBP (.276) is lower than his AVG (.286) due to zero walks and a sacrifice fly. Smith is sporting a team-best .250 ISO but his poor OBP is holding down his overall value.
In terms of #2, Alonso has looked really good in the field. He’s made some nice plays (despite the strange decision to take the one hop throw from Guillorme from foul territory???) and he hasn’t been diving in front of the second baseman for ground balls. He’s said that he’s committed to his defense and the early returns look very good. I’d like to see the bat get going now.
The eye test tells me that Guillorme is our best third baseman. If McCann catches his throw to the plate, which every good catcher would have, his numbers would be better. I’m also very encouraged by his ABs… I like seeing him in the lineup.
Perhaps the Mets can become the team no pitcher wants to face.
By grinding out ABs and driving up pitch counts, even the best starters can be gone after 5 innings, leaving the game in the hands of precarious relievers… it takes plate discipline and a team approach.
I attribute 95% of Conforto’s struggles so far to two things:
1. His mental state regarding free agency and the lack of an offer especially seeing his mew teammate just get $341MM for ten years, and
2. Just natural regression, but not this much.
I predict Conforto will get pissed off and not care about the extension. With a clear head and renewed determination, when he gets going, look out!
It was surprising and encouraging that Peterson was so dominant it his start against the Phillies after they thrashed him in his earlier start.
Stroman has been good as expected for a #2 starter. Walker has been slightly better expected. Once the offense starts clicking the team will consistently win.
Consistent good pitching is not the athletes alone… it is always good coaching. Good coaching includes having a plan, designing an approach, and executing the plan. Hopefully the good start indicates that JHefner is engaged, attentive, and with a clue. The Mets now have the athletes to execute.
I hope they throw as a staff fewer pitches at 0-2 that can be barreled… I’ve already seen too many wind up on the outfield grass, one into the upper deck (Chisholm)…