Fivethirtyeight, started by Nate Silver, is a stat nerd’s dream. Filled to the brim with unique models for sports and political statistics, along with great written content surrounding them, they are the best place to go in terms of data visualization. While I have advocated against using statistics to make in-game decisions, I am all for using them in terms of predicative models. When New York Mets fans look at their website right now, it is hard to be mad at what they are projecting. As of Thursday, Fivethirtyeight has the Mets at a 60% chance at making the playoffs, and a 45% chance of winning the division. For what it’s worth, they also predicted preseason that the Mets would win the division with an 88-74 record.
While that is a long ways away, they also offer great insight as to why a team is performing so well. All signs are pointing to the pitching of the Mets as a reason as to why they have been so successful so far. Fivethirtyeight uses a version of Bill James’s game score, which starts pitchers at a rating of 50 and either raises or lowers the score from 50 based on their performance. It displays starting pitchers on a scatter chart, and is revealing of just how important starting pitching is. It goes without saying that Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher on the Mets, with an average score of 64.0. For what it’s worth, he is second in the league behind Garret Cole who has a 65.1, and one spot in front of Trevor Bauer who has a 61.6.
Four teams in the NL East, the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and Washington Nationals, have two starters with an average score above the division average so far this season (53.) Only one team in the NL East has a starter that has been average in the division, and that pitcher is Taijuan Walker. While it might seem like one pitcher might not make much of a difference when it comes to an extended look at the season, it could actually have a large impact.
Take for example, the Atlanta Braves. Their second-best starter in terms of game score has been Ian Anderson. Between Anderson and their next best pitcher, Max Fried, there is a 3.5-point difference. Fried just landed on the I.L, but before that, he was struggling to properly locate his pitches. His five walks so far this season have hurt his score, and would have him struggling against a lineup like the Mets, who are second in the MLB with a .358 OBP.
Looking at traditional statistics, there is more re-affirming that the Mets are where they are right now because of their starting pitching. While some statistics like strikeouts and walks are skewed at this point because the Mets have played three or four games less than everyone in the league, others rank them near the top. The Mets are third overall in the MLB in total ERA with a mark of 2.82, behind only the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. The bullpen, which was a disaster to begin the season, actually holds the sixth-best ERA among bullpens in the National League with a mark of 3.92.
The narrative of the Mets pitching staff entering the season was that they had not done enough to improve from last year’s rotation, and that the team would have to wait for the respective returns of Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard to field legitimate depth. So far, that narrative has been proven wrong by the starters that have taken the hill for the Mets. In fact, in a season where the Mets have continued to be anemic with runners in scoring position (a .191 average, second-worst in the NL), the starting pitching has been the bright spot so far for this team.
At the end of the day, predictions are for the most part a crap shoot. While they are fun to look at, they can never truly factor in unpredictable factors. Whether it be injuries on the negative side, or glossing over prospects, they have their faults. With that being said, Fivethirtyeight provides accurate projections that are typically on the mark, and could be trusted. For what it’s worth, they have successfully predicted the outcome of five of the Mets games this year. The point here is that their outlook on why the Mets have been successful so far this season is an accurate reflection of how well the rotation has pitched this year. If the team can put it together with runners in scoring position, which should come once weather allows the team to play games consistently, the division victory prediction just might come true.
Fivethirtyeight gives the New York Mets a 45% chance to win the NL East
The Mets have the third best ERA in the MLB with a 2.82
The Mets have the second worst batting average with runners in scoring position in the NL, with a .191 average.
Not even two full swings through the rotation, and so far so good. But “far” is not far enough, and “good” is written in pencil. I like the Mets SP staff; it is what gives the team an advantage over the division rivals. I knew DeGrom and Peterson would be solid, but if they can get Stroman and Walker to be what they seem to be… lights out.
Mets will have to overcome sporadic schedule and continue to get good starts even with too many doubleheaders. I hope the hot start not only indicates quality pitchers, but also indicates quality coaching.
The Mets offseason had three aims:
1. Upgrade the starting pitching by alot. The Mets weren’t looking for #5’s, but rather 1’s, 2’s, and 3’s. Ecause they knew they were quite a ways back in the talent level. The Stroman QO acceptance was a nice bit of fortune, but Stroman may have had a hard time finding good work after not pitching for a year and a half and not being a big arm to begin with. They got Carrasco and Walker, two upscale arms. Thor and Lugo will round out the high end pieces coming back.
2. Get a starting catcher and a starting CF. They got the catcher after the better catcher was a bit unreasonable, and the CF was expecting the Mets to bid against themselves but they wouldn’t. So, they have to live with the #5 ranked CF according to MLB Network rather than #3. No complaints have been heard.
3. Look to extend their free agents, Syndergaard, Conforto, and Stroman. Lindor was a surprise gift this off season, but not extending him would have been a bad sign for the first moves of a new owner of a big market team. Now, the Mets have the flexibility to be picky. According to FanGraphs, Conforto was the #13 ranked outfielder the last two years, but McNeil is the #14 and Nimmo the #18, so there are options. Too, Walker, Carrasco and Peterson give the Mets options. For Lindor though, there didn’t feel like much choice. Just like there won’t be for JDG.