How would Ben Franklin manage Jacob deGrom?

Benjamin Franklin was a comedic philosopher. Certainly, he is known as a Philadelphian, but he certainly had the Mets on his mind during the early 1700s.  Yes, Poor Richard’s Almanack was printed from 1732 to 1758, and Franklin’s witticisms found therein are largely from the first half of the century. Side note, Franklin was born in Boston, and ran away from his apprenticeship (not legal!) to Philly at 17.

Some popular phrases of Franklin’s that come to mind when I think about this year’s Mets:

“He that lies down with Dogs, wakes up with Fleas.”

“No gains without pains.”

Jacob deGrom is living these quotes. But he is also living one of the best quotes: “Hitch your wagon to a star”.

Pitchers like deGrom are exceedingly rare. When teams have them, they need to maximize, within the framework of health-conscious performance, their utility and value to the team. Winning pennants is more important than winning games. deGrom has been stellar the last four seasons, and the Mets have used him “normally”. That is a mistake.

Everyone knows that the majors use a five-man rotation, so pitchers pitch every fifth day. That is a misnomer. Pitchers typically pitch every fifth game. Periodically, you hear of someone taking an extra day rest due to a day off for the team.  If a team has a solid five-man rotation (bear with me), 162 divided by five is 32. 32 starts. And that is what deGrom starts.  32 games. But should the Mets do better?

To date, the Mets have played 19 games and deGrom has started five of them. However, he has dropped a day in the “every fifth day” count. Ol’ Ben would say “Dost thou love life? Then do not squander Time; for that’s the stuff life is made of.”  Or perhaps “Lost Time is never found again.”

The Mets should adopt the policy, strongly, *deGrom pitches every fifth day*.  Franklin agrees, “Hide not your talents, they for use were made. What’s a sundial in the shade!”

What does that translate to? Preseason projections put the Mets in the neighborhood of 93 wins. That translates to a 0.574 winning percentage. After 19 games, the Mets could expect to be 11-8, a full two-win swing. The Mets cannot get those wins back. Or can they?

If the Mets move deGrom to every fifth day between now and the end of the season, deGrom would make *35* starts. That is three extra starts. Given deGrom’s skill level compared to a typical fifth starter (rather than the Mets even worse bunch), deGrom gives the Mets a 45-50% greater chance of winning the game. This is obviously a significant number – to go from a 45% chance of winning to a 70% chance of winning. This includes water under the bridge (or over the dam).  Yes, there is math associated with that claim, but no need to bore you.

Some will want to say, “Players like routine”.  Yes, every fifth day is a routine.  deGrom’s teammates know he gives them the best chance at winning. Thus they want him to go every chance he can.  Some might argue “will he be overworked?” Either he can go every fifth day or not, and there is not much evidence that he would get worn out.  “Wish not so much to live long as to live well.” Or as some say, “Flags fly forever.” Or “Strike while the iron is hot.”

Teams have been wasting aces all season until the last week, when they suddenly want them to go on short rest. By adhering to a strict “every fifth day” policy, they can put those extra wins in the bag earlier in the season. This is a successful program and would boost deGrom to the league leader in every category.

Benjamin Franklin believed in hard work, smart work, and not wasting away one’s time. The Mets should put their best players on the field as often as they (safely) can.

To leave Ben for a moment, Ralph Waldo Emerson said it perfectly, “Hitch your wagon to a star.”