As we head to the last day of April, the Reds lead the National League with a 5.33 runs per game average. Meanwhile, the NL has a 4.31 rpg average. And the Mets? As you might have guessed, they are last in the 15-team league with a 3.00 mark. It makes a certain preseason prediction that the Mets would set a franchise record for most runs scored in a season look rather silly.
If the Mets were below league average and scored exactly four runs in every game they played, they would be 12-7 rather than 9-10. If they were more like the Reds and scored five runs in every game they played, the Mets would be 14-5. The Reds, for all of their offense, are 11-13.
It’s been beyond frustrating to watch this offense. If there’s a silver lining to this inept play early in the season, it’s that they’ve done well against NL East competition. Against their division foes, the Mets are 7-4. In those 11 division games, the Mets have scored 40 runs. Let’s not pretend that an rpg of 3.6 is anything to get excited about – it just beats the 2.4 rpg mark they’ve managed against non-division foes.
And among division foes, the Mets have done their best against the Phillies. In six games against Philadelphia, New York has tallied 26 runs, good for a 4.3 rpg mark. And with that league-average run rate, the Mets are 4-2 against the Phillies.
Struggling to score runs is nothing new for longtime Mets fans. From 1962-1968, there were 10 teams in the NL. Here’s where the Mets finished each year in the league in rpg: 9, 9, 9, 10, 9, 10, 10. And it’s not like things got much better in the 100-win season in 1969, either. The Mets finished 9th in the 12-team league in rpg, with the two expansion teams finishing below them.
In their first 23 years of existence, the Mets did not finish the year with an rpg mark better than league average. In 1982, nine teams in the league finished with an above-average mark; the Mets finished 10th. It wasn’t until 1985 when the Mets finally broke into the top half of the league. They ripped off seven consecutive finishes with an above-average rpg. That span coincides with the team’s best-ever performance.
Overall, the Mets have finished with an rpg better than league average in just 17 years of their existence, which is … pitiful. The team finished over .500 in 15 of those years, with the exceptions being 2011 and 2020.
When the Mets got Dave Kingman, it was great news – at least to this fan – because he gave them something they simply didn’t have. The Mets were lucky to have a guy reach 20 HR in a season before Kingman got there, which was something that was obvious even to an adolescent. But the problem extended far beyond home runs. It was offense in general that torpedoed the Mets throughout the 60s and 70s – and most of the 90s, too.
Many fans are frustrated with Sandy Alderson’s preference for offense over defense. And while the goal is to get players who excel at both, if circumstances – say an ownership reluctant to spend a bunch of money – prevent you from getting those talented, expensive players, Mets history should want you to prefer the guys who can hit and drive in runs over the guys who can catch and prevent runs.
That’s why the Francisco Lindor trade and signing was so exciting to so many people. Here was a guy who was going to excel at both offense and defense. So far, in 19 games of his Mets career, Lindor has certainly exceled with the glove. But he’s not hitting and he certainly deserves a good share of the blame for the Mets’ early offensive woes and uninspiring record.
You can point to a couple of games this year that the Mets lost because of their defense. You can also see 11 games where they scored three runs or fewer and have gone 2-9.
Regardless of how good your offense is, there are always going to be games where you don’t put many runs on the board. In 1986, when the Mets led the league with a 4.83 rpg, there were 52 games when they scored three runs or fewer. That’s 32% of their games. Right now, they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 58% of their games.
J.D. Davis is at 3B to maximize the team’s offense. He has a 1.063 OPS, a (-2) DRS and a 0.5 fWAR
Brandon Nimmo is in CF to maximize the team’s offense. He has a .923 OPS, a +1 DRS and a 0.8 fWAR
Dominic Smith is in LF to maximize the team’s offense. He has a .562 OPS, a (-2) DRS and a (-0.4) fWAR
Just imagine how bad the offense would be if Nimmo and/or Davis had gone in offseason deals like many wanted and they signed Jackie Bradley Jr. and his .579 OPS. Smith is hurting the club right now with both his offense and defense and you can certainly make a case to replace him. The problem is that Albert Almora has a .393 OPS and Kevin Pillar has a .305 mark.
Would Luis Rojas consider moving Davis to LF to get either Luis Guillorme or Jonathan Villar into the lineup? And even if he was open to the idea, how long do you sit Smith, who had a .937 OPS in his previous 396 PA? Everyone wants to tinker and blast Rojas for not doing the same. It’s a tough spot for the young manager.
Things aren’t going to get better until the team starts hitting. The Mets need Lindor, Smith, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil to hit like the back of their baseball card says they should. Here’s what these four players have done, with the first number being their pre-2021 OPS and the second number being this year’s mark:
Conforto – .843, .668
Lindor – .833, .578
McNeil – .884, .635
Smith – .811, .552
A team was assembled to hit that simply hasn’t hit,
The Mets are tied for 16th in the majors in DRS, sporting a +3 mark. They’ve essentially been a league-average defensive club. They’re 29th in rpg. At some point, the four guys above are going to stop hitting 175-250 points below their lifetime OPS. If they can just get to the point where they’re only 50 points below their lifetime marks, the offense would be significantly better.
Offense is fun. And sometime soon we’re going to see this Mets team start to fire on all cylinders. At least that’s what I’m telling myself to make it through this maddening time.
What you pose here, Brian, is a very complex problem. The Mets just have multiple players with no position to play. Only roster changes can alleviate that problem. I really like putting JD in LF, because I thought he was decent out there, has a strong arm, and just will not suffice at third base all season long.
That leaves Dom the odd man out, but I’m ok with that. One or both of those guys need to be traded for someone who truly fits the team. JD playing decent LF would help keep him, though that would leave Nimmo in CF… another quagmire.
I’m afraid Dom is under the gun to show his real colors offensively this season and maybe even sooner. His last two seasons of “success” were abbreviated, and a full season of productivity would say a lot about who he is and what he’s worth to whatever team needs him. There is simply no argument about whether Dom or Alonso… gotta keep Pete on the team… a rare talent.
Still, the Dom problem is yet a good problem to have. He produces and the Mets benefit; he produces and the Mets get a good player in exchange for him. The only unworkable solution is Dom not producing, and we will have to watch that scenario with white knuckles as it unfolds in the coming weeks and months.
Is anyone else thinking about Baerga and Alomar right now?
Rojas is in a tough spot and if he rights the ship by his leadership then he will be golden. Rojas can’t hit for them but he can decide which players can bat for him.
Rojas say the hitters “didn’t have the right approach….they they have to clean up”. He knows who the culprits are. Rojas has a bench that affords him leeway to send a message to the culprits. The Mets will eventually hit, we all know that, but maybe Rojas can push them along faster. Good managers solved problems.
Usually a trip to Colorado is supposed to jump start your offense but it seems to have had the opposite effect this year.
Before the COL series team OPS : 743 OPS
Since COL series team OPS : 629 OPS
The worst part is the quality of pitchers was probably better before Colorado than after.
This is such a complex issue, Brian, and it goes back to personnel issues. The Mets have multiple guys playing out of position, and that will only be solved with roster moves. I’d like to see JD, whose offense I trust more than I do Dom’s, play left field, where he was decent last year, has a stronger arm, and can sustain more dependably than at 3B. Of course that keeps Nimmo more in CF, but so be it…
Dom is the one that is really on the hot seat. After two abbreviated seasons of good offensive success, Dom has to show a full season to indicate his value to whatever team would want him. Still, it’s a nice problem to have. If Dom is productive it helps the Mets; if Dom is productive it ups his trade value. But if Dom is unproductive, it starts to clear up the Mets dilemma. He might have another month to start hitting or it will get very spotty for him. He simply is not a good out-fielder.
Not sure if the young Rojas is willing to stand up to the front office, the NY media, or the fanbase. I mean, whose ass is he going to kick? Certainly not McNeil’s, Dom’s, or, god forbid, Lindor’s… Chili Davis? No way. He’s stuck.
The Mets success in division could be explained partially by what players they have missed. No Soto, no Strasborg, Nola only once (will miss him again this weekend), no Efflin, no Harper this weekend?, no
Segura (this weekend)?. Even inter-league, they missed Evoldi and Rodriguez…
I think we all agree that the Mets are a bad team right now… way too easy to pitch to… the question remains are we seeing a team without a focus or a better team waiting to gel (see Nationals 2019). I lean toward the former.