The sub-Plaweckian hitters on the 2021 Mets

Whenever a player on the Mets is struggling to hit, my reaction is to compare him to former Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki and call the offensively-challenged player sub-Plaweckian. Much like with Mario Mendoza and the Mendoza Line, there are a bunch of players who could have filled the role that Plawecki does here. It could have been Eric Campbell or Ruben Tejada or Jordany Valdespin or a bunch of other guys. But Plawecki, well, he just fits. No doubt it’s the name with four multi-point Scrabble letters in it. But if .200 is the Mendoza Line, what qualifies a guy as sub-Plaweckian?

Is it his current .652 OPS? Is it his .638 mark with the Mets? Or, is it the .572 mark he put up his first two years in the majors in a not-tiny 409 PA? It can’t be his lifetime mark, since that will change as long as he’s still active. In the past, it was used without much thought given to an exact cutoff. Maybe that’s how it should be. Maybe a .620 OPS and a .585 OPS and a .560 mark can all qualify for the term.

The 2021 Mets currently have eight players with at least 50 PA. Let’s see how many fall into sub-Plaweckian territory:

James McCann (74 PA, .520 OPS) – Everything to date is a small sample but, wow, no one would blame Steve Cohen if he already had buyer’s remorse with this purchase. McCann doesn’t inspire any confidence when he comes to the plate and there are questions defensively, too. On the one hand, it seems the pitching staff is doing quite well and perhaps McCann deserves some credit for that. On the other hand, he doesn’t seem to move all that great behind the plate and that improved framing that was talked about so much when he signed isn’t showing up, as his (-1.4) FRM ranks 14th out of 16 catchers who qualify for the leaderboards. But this is about offense. In addition to all of the traditional metrics that he’s been struggling with, McCann’s Exit Velocity ranks 13th on the team and he has yet to hit a single Barrel.

Dominic Smith (90 PA, .604 OPS) – After hitting two homers in his first five games, it’s been all downhill for Smith ever since. In his last 18 games, he has a .526 OPS and that’s with a .288 BABIP so it’s not like he’s had awful luck with the hits falling in. The broadcasters have talked repeatedly about how he’s struggling with offspeed stuff. His HardHit% ranks 11th on the team. Smith is striking out at a higher rate than the past two seasons and his walk rate has dropped from below average to horrendous. When Brandon Nimmo returns, Smith is in danger of losing playing time to Kevin Pillar if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate soon.

Francisco Lindor (106 PA, .478 OPS) – No one can look good with a .173 BABIP when they have a .045 ISO. If you knew nothing of Lindor except what he’s done since the start of the season, you might wonder if he had the bat speed to be a productive player. While he’s hit some balls hard, Lindor’s Soft% of 23.4 is easily the worst mark of his career and it feels like that number should be even higher. Last year, which wasn’t a particularly good one for Lindor, he had a 9.6 Soft%. He’s not chasing pitches and his contact rate is just about at his lifetime average. The processes seem fine; it’s the results that are horrifying. Regression will cure some of this – 100 additional points of BABIP should get him out of the sub-Plaweckian category – but he needs to hit the ball with more authority, too. It’s impossible to imagine the Lindor we’ve seen post three consecutive 30-HR seasons.

*****

The bench players for the Mets have been for the most part average or better for their roles. No one expects a bench guy to have a 130 OPS+. The “illar twins” – Pillar and Jonathan Villar – have performed well in their roles. Luis Guillorme and Tomas Nido have done incredibly well in the few times they’ve been to the plate. There’s been one exception, though.

We didn’t have high expectations for Albert Almora and he hasn’t reached wherever we may have set the bar. Almora is 1-14 with 6 Ks and has a .205 OPS. It’s hard to wrap your head around how bad that is. OPS+ tags that as a (-40) and just imagine how bad everything would look without that walk. Hey, at least he had that one nice defensive play. Regardless, he’s clearly a member of the sub-Plaweckian crew, even with just 15 PA to his name.

The Mets signed Almora on Feb. 10 and followed up on Feb. 21 by coming to terms with Pillar. It wasn’t until the Pillar signing that they cut Guillermo Heredia, who played well for them down the stretch in 2020. Heredia ended up on the Braves and in 49 PA, he has a .300/.429/.575 line. Heredia is a strong contender for the annual guy that Atlanta picks up for nothing who plays out of his mind. He’s currently on the IL so perhaps he’ll come back to earth when he returns. Still, it looks like the Mets would have been better off with Heredia than Almora.