As Mets return from the IL, which ‘bench mob’ guys get the axe?

As the double-digit number of guys on the IL start to return, the Mets and their fans are going to have to face some hard realities. We all want to see the stars and name players return. But by necessity, that means that some of the “bench mob” will have to be sent packing. Yennsy Diaz didn’t get much of a shot to prove that he belonged but he looked good in his two outings. Yet he was optioned to make room for Taijuan Walker. No one made any fuss when it happened and Walker came up with a sparkling return. But it seems unlikely that the rest of the moves will happen without some regrets from the fanbase.

Pete Alonso, Seth Lugo and Kevin Pillar are all ready to be activated, either later today or tomorrow. We welcome their return with open arms. But who goes to make room for these guys? Right now, the Mets’ roster has 14 pitchers, three catchers, five infielders and four outfielders. Usually, you would expect a 13-13 pitcher-hitter split, with two catchers, six infielders and five outfielders. So, the roster isn’t ideal from either a player or number perspective.

Wilfredo Tovar seems to be the easiest removal to make. Sure, it’s a great story of a former prospect returning to his first organization. But let’s not get stuck in the past. It was a nice story, the story’s been told and now let’s move on.

The two other moves won’t be so easy for some.

It’s nice to have three catchers on the roster and you don’t have to try very hard to make a case that with five pitchers who can consistently go six or more innings every night that it’s a better use of resources to have a third catcher than a 13th or 14th pitcher. Especially if that third catcher can hit. But Mets starters have given the club 222.2 IP in 45 games, an average of just under five innings per start. There have been 18 times in 45 games where a starter failed to reach five innings pitched and six more where the starter went exactly five innings. Forget consistently going six or more innings – Mets SP in 2021 don’t go that long even half the time.

No one wants to be the one to say the party’s over. But it’s hard to imagine cult hero Patrick Mazeika remaining on the roster for much longer. Sure, they could cut an outfielder here and if Billy McKinney didn’t impress right away, he’d probably be the guy. Some might say there’s no reason to keep Cameron Maybin and his days are numbered now, too. You can throw Khalil Lee in the mix here, too. Any of these guys could be the one to go. But to me, a fifth outfielder is more important than a third catcher. And we don’t know how Pillar is going to react when he gets in the box. If you cut an outfielder and Pillar has flashbacks, you’re really only carrying three outfielders, with one of them being a first baseman.

Which brings us to the pitching.

The Mets have been treating Lugo with, depending on how you look at it, either kid gloves or a sensible deployment. Typically, they did not have him pitch out of the pen on back-to-back days if they could avoid it. Since 2018, Lugo has made 119 relief appearances and only nine times did he pitch in back-to-back games. Will that change now that he’s had the surgery on his elbow? How will the Mets use him? Will it be as a short reliever to be counted on to go back-to-back like other short relievers? Or will they use him for multiple innings in high leverage spots?

How they plan to use him may determine which pitcher gets removed. If he’s going to be a short reliever, used overwhelmingly in one-inning bursts, then Drew Smith might be the guy to go. But if he’s going to be a multi-inning guy, it would be either Robert Gsellman or Sean Reid-Foley. All three of these relievers have been solid, with all of them having an ERA under 3.00, so it will be a tough cut regardless of which direction they go.

And there’s another possibility to consider. What if they play to use Lugo as either a starter or as a bulk guy after an opener? Then Joey Lucchesi’s spot might be in jeopardy. Lucchesi easily has the worst results of any pitcher we’ve mentioned so far, with a 6.56 ERA in 23.1 IP. But Lucchesi’s done his best pitching in his last two outings, with 7.2 IP, 1 ER and 10 Ks.

My cuts would be Tovar, Mazeika and Gsellman but someone else could come up with three completely different names and have a good shot at being right. We’ll see what Sandy Alderson and Zack Scott decide later today. But whoever makes the cut now will still be on the hot seat once more of the walking wounded return to action.

*****

After writing this, it also hit me that they announced yesterday that Mason Williams will be getting the call from Triple-A. So, either Lee or Maybin will be gone, too. My choice would be to option Lee.