A league of Dave Kingmans, Taijuan Walker’s great start, Francisco Lindor’s first 45 games

In Saturday night’s nationally televised game, one of the announcers made a comment that – speculating – was meant as a put down but is actually something worth discussing in more detail. He said that today’s game has essentially turned every hitter into Dave Kingman. Lifetime, Kingman had a .236 AVG and a .302 OBP and the NL in 2021 right now has a .234 AVG and a .313 OBP. Of course, the announcer left off the biggest part of Kingman’s game – power. Let’s just be kind and say that NL hitters don’t have a .242 ISO this year, which was Kingman’s career average in the category.

Because he didn’t hit for a high AVG and was notoriously surly – sometimes outright hostile – to reporters, the media coverage and public perception of Kingman is that he wasn’t a very good player. My opinion is that he had the skills to be better than he was. Still, he was better than what the majority of people thought, both at the time and now. Two of my biggest Mets-related regrets (non-World Series department) are that Kingman got injured in 1976 when it looked like he was going to challenge for the HR record and that he had his big 1979 season for a team besides the Mets.

Kingman had four years with the Mets where he topped 400 PA in a season. His OPS+ marks in those seasons were: 123, 129, 118 and 99. For a comparison – that’s pretty much the production of Michael Conforto from 2016-2019, who put up a 124 OPS+ in those four years. Conforto was better. But the idea that Kingman was some bum is simply one that doesn’t hold water.

Home runs are valuable and groundouts and lazy fly balls are vastly overrated. That was true in 1976 and it’s true now. It’s fun to imagine Kingman hitting in Coors Field or Chase Field and playing in a league where Wrigley Field is 14th for HR and 26th for runs like it is in 2021, rather than one of the top five parks like it was in 1976. Could Kingman handle the velocity present in today’s game? Maybe, maybe not – but that’s beyond the scope of what we’re addressing here. But Kingman was fun to root for and his at-bats were must-see events back in the 70s. If the game has turned everyone into a guy whose ABs were events – how is that a bad thing?

STARTING PITCHING CONTINUES TO SHINE – Taijuan Walker’s five shutout innings Saturday night was just the latest strong performance from a Mets starter. The club is tied for first with the Dodgers with a 2.92 ERA from their starters. The big difference is that LA’s starters are 23-10 while the Mets’ are 12-14. There are numerous reasons for the discrepancy. The Mets’ offense has largely been found on the back of a milk carton, they’ve played significantly fewer games, the Mets have used an opener who didn’t pitch long enough to get the win five times and, of course, the legendary lack of support when Jacob deGrom pitches.

But while we’re talking about the starters, let’s take a moment to appreciate what Walker has given the club. Despite signing late and clearly not being the team’s first choice as a free agent SP, Walker has given the Mets much more than they possibly could have expected. If you said out loud that after nine games that Walker would be 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.939 WHIP, you would have been the subject of ridicule. Of the six computer models we quoted in his preseason projection piece, the best had him posting a 3.82 ERA and the other five each had him with an ERA over four. While the more-heralded offseason additions have struggled, Walker’s given the club a much-needed boost.

UPDATE ON THE $341 MILLION MAN – Francisco Lindor had a two-hit game with a homer Saturday night and again we find ourselves hoping that this will be the game that breaks him out of his season-long slump. It’s just the seventh time in 44 contests that Lindor has posted a multi-hit game. While he’s been a very nice upgrade defensively, the thought was the Mets were getting a two-way star at shortstop and that simply hasn’t been the case to date.

Thru 45 games, over a quarter of the season, Lindor sits with a .583 OPS. You know that’s not good. But do you know how bad that is? Baseball-Reference has a new feature available to Stathead subscribers that let’s you look at spans of PA, instead of just being able to compare yearly numbers. Setting the parameters as the first 45 games of the season, with a minimum of 170 PA, Lindor’s start is the 17th-worst in Mets history. We haven’t seen a start this bad from a regular since 2013, when Terry Collins was writing the Terrible Trio into the lineup card on a regular basis. That year Ike Davis (.496 OPS) and Ruben Tejada (.547) were both worse than Lindor. John Buck’s hot start kept him from this list but he more than made up for it with his .495 OPS in June. Unlike in 2013, the injury-depleted Mets have no choice but to keep writing Lindor’s name into the lineup. Let’s just hope he separates from 1968 Bud Harrelson and Al Weis sooner rather than later.

RELIEVER’S CHARMED LIFE CONTINUES … FOR NOW – When the Mets activated Walker from the IL, they sent down Yennsy Diaz, who did not allow a run in his two appearances. Perhaps this Diaz should have gotten more than two innings of work while he was on the roster but managers always trust a guy who’s been around over a non-hyped rookie. Walker’s activation was the latest threat to his roster spot survived by Robert Gsellman, who hasn’t been awful but who hasn’t been lights out, either.

Gsellman has a spiffy 2.89 ERA but his peripherals paint a different picture, as he has a 4.23 xFIP. He’s allowed runs in five of his 12 appearances. Gsellman’s ERA is bolstered by two outings where he combined for 5.1 IP and 0 ER. His ability to pitch multiple innings is definitely a point in his favor. But he’s given up runs in three of his seven appearances of three outs or fewer, which is definitely not good.

There will be another challenge to his spot when Seth Lugo gets activated and it will be curious to see if Gsellman survives that one, too. The extended activation horizons for Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard mean that Gsellman will get another few weeks if he survives the upcoming Lugo activation. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

COMPARING THE METS’ RECORD AFTER 45 GAMES – If before the season started you were told the Mets were in first place with a 25-20 record, you’d probably say that sounds about right. But if you were told they achieved that despite a miserable start by the offense and a time with 17 players on the IL, well you might be a bit flabbergasted. Yet here we are.

Last year the Mets had such great trouble because they were down a couple of starting pitchers and couldn’t handle those injuries. After the first 45 games of 2020, the Mets were 21-24 and getting worse. Since 2010, the Mets have been under .500 after 45 games seven times. This year’s record is the second-best mark for the club, trailing just the 26-19 mark of the 2016 Mets. That year, the Mets went 13-2 in 15 games from 4/13-4/30. The best 15-game streak for this year’s squad is the 10-5 mark they posted from the second game of the doubleheader on 5/5-5/22. From that same starting point, they are currently 14-7, despite nine times scoring three runs or fewer.