When the season started, the hope was that by June 1, Noah Syndergaard was either just activated or would be so shortly, giving the Mets a potentially dynamite starting rotation. The reality has turned into something different, as it doesn’t look like either Syndergaard or Carlos Carrasco will be throwing their first MLB pitch of the 2021 season anytime soon. But the other three guys have more than held up their end of things, giving the Mets a trio of impressive hurlers.
Of course, things start with the magnificent Jacob deGrom. In eight games, he has a 542 ERA+. Everyone likes to talk about Bob Gibson’s 1968, well that season he posted a 258 ERA+. Now, there’s a long way between eight games and a full year but the complete and utter domination by deGrom shows no signs of letting up. Other pitchers, like Brandon Woodruff (320 ERA+) and Lance Lynn (300) are also off to great starts. But those guys haven’t won two CY Awards in the past three years. For those two pitchers, this is a stretch like nothing they’ve done before in the majors. For deGrom, he was actually better than this in an 8-stretch span in 2018, when he had a 0.57 ERA from 4/21-6/2, compared to the 0.71 mark he has now.
Next up is Taijuan Walker. Among pitchers in MLB with at least eight starts, Walker is seventh in the majors with a 209 ERA+. Thought by many to be the fifth starter once everyone is healthy, Walker has proven to be much more than that. He hasn’t given the innings of some of the other top pitchers but the aforementioned Lynn has just 3.2 more innings despite having an extra start under his belt. Walker gives up a few more walks than you’d prefer but 1 HR in 49 IP covers up a lot of sins.
Marcus Stroman may be listed third here but he leads the club in both starts and innings and a 155 ERA+ is nothing about which to be embarrassed. He’s still getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground and after a slow start with getting batters to whiff, he has 40 Ks in his last 46.1 IP. Stroman’s had two bad starts in his 10 appearances, which keeps him from having a Walker-like ERA+. But in his two starts since getting knocked around by the Rays, he’s put up 12 IP with 2 ER, 3 BB and 11 Ks.
For the season, these three starters have combined for 158.1 IP, 97 H, 30 ER, 10 HR, 39 BB and 177 Ks. That’s a 1.71 ERA and 0.859 WHIP. The Padres can counter with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, both with ERAs in the low twos. But the third pitcher isn’t there, at least not yet. Neither Chris Paddack nor Blake Snell is anywhere close to those numbers. But 21-year-old rookie Ryan Weathers has come up and done quite well. It’s weird to think that when the Mets face the Padres this weekend in a four-game set that the hope is that they’ll face both Paddack and Snell but that’s how things have played out for San Diego.
This upcoming series against the Padres is shaping up as a nice litmus test for the Mets. So far, the Mets are beating up on the bad teams but they haven’t exactly distinguished themselves against the top teams in the majors. Meanwhile, San Diego is currently 34-21 and has gone 16-5 in their last 21 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a monster with a 1.091 OPS and the lineup has no sinkholes.
The Mets may not get back any additional reinforcements for their lineup but it’s nice to have Pete Alonso back. It will be curious to see if Francisco Lindor, who has back-to-back multi-hit games, will be inspired with a chance to go up against Tatis. And hopefully Dominic Smith’s bat is heating up, too. The bench mob is a nice little story but the Mets will need their big guns if they hope to keep pace with the Padres.
Of course, big outings from deGrom, Walker and Stroman will go a long way, too. deGrom has a lifetime 1.57 ERA versus the Padres while Walker has a 1.33 and Stroman is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two games against San Diego in his career.
I have been pleasantly surprised by Walker!
After 2+ years of FIPs in the 4s, his FIP this year is 2.61 so far. And his WHIP is under 1 for the first time.
I preferred the signing of Odorizzi in the off season, but Walker has been so much better. Odorizzi has an ERA+ of 63 and an FIP of 4.69 so far.
If he can keep doing what he is doing, Walker is the deal of the century for the Mets. He’s young enough and with so relatively few innings on his arm, he might be a long-term piece in an outstanding staff. I especially like his personalty, seems like a natural team leader.
Stroman can truly distinguish himself this season. If he can remain consistent and maintain a dependable position in the rotation, the Mets will be formidable in the post-season. While Syndergaard and Carrasco are significant additions, my hope is that there will be little pressure to get them going quickly. They can join in more organically and hopefully be part of an embarrassment of riches… puts pressure on the FO to figure out what to do in the future.
It’s a good point about the lack of innings. At some point, I need to do a list of guys and professional IP by age. It could be one (not the only one, for sure) reason why deGrom has kept improving in his 30s.
I feel proud to have wanted walker over odorizzi, Paxton, etc. Seemed like he found something in Toronto last year and was ready to breakout. I had no idea how huge he would look on the mound. The contrast between him and stroman is so distinct and yet they both succeed. Baseball is such a great game.
in 2021, JdG has allowed 7 runs pitching (3 of which are unearned) and is involved in 7 runs batting (4 runs scored, 3 RBIs). His batting slash lines are .450/.450/.500, resulting in a stunning .950 OPS in 20 AB (no BBs). His ERA+ is 542, and his OPS+ is 169. And his FIP is 1.08. Jeez…
Yet even with all the worthy accolades, I frankly am worried about listening to Gary Cohen all season extolling and extolling JdG. About every other sentence includes as the subject or its object, “DeGrom…”
I’m admitting here that it wears me out… love to hear him fan out a bit… other people are playing in the game as well, Gary… act just a little like you’ve been here before… and I like Gary, don’t get me wrong… but NYC merits the highest level of professionalism.
And while we’re on the subject of Gary Cohen, Jerry Seinfeld tried correcting him last season about his pet line, “… and the Diamondbacks are down to their final strike…”, which is simply not necessarily true (as Jerry pointed out). What’s more true is that “… the Mets are now one strike away from a victory”.
But Gary was having none of it that day. He shrugged off the comment by Jerry S. and pretended he never heard it… kind of stubborn and I guess would rather keep with a tradition rather than be correct… we all have our flaws…
Potentially good news for us is that Tatis exited last night’s game with a possible muscle strain (side/torso). He’s been a beast. SD’s lineup is good, but he’s the only one that’s really been consistently slugging. This San Diego team could be a WS favorite next year when Clevinger returns and McKenzie Gore comes up.