The Mets are 26-14 (.650) when their starting pitcher completes at least six innings and 10-4 (.714) when their starter goes at least seven innings so far here in 2021. Unfortunately, it’s been 13 consecutive games now where their starter has failed to complete six innings. Last night’s win made the Mets 5-8 (.385) in this stretch. And with Rich Hill starting this afternoon, the smart money has the Mets extending their streak of early SP exits to 14 games.
To be clear, this is not a knock on the bullpen. If anything, it’s been remarkable how the relievers have held it together, having to consistently deliver 20 or more innings per week. If we consider a week to be six games – how nice it would be to have a consistent day off and no doubleheaders! – in the last week the Mets’ pen has given 23.1 innings and allowed 11 ER for a 4.24 ERA. That doesn’t sound all that great but in the same six-game span, the starters have gone 29.2 IP and allowed 19 ER for a 5.76 ERA.
Ideally, your starters pitch over twice as many innings as your relievers and because of the huge innings edge, we expect the starters’ ERA to be slightly higher than the relievers, even though the better pitchers are starting. It should be easier to pitch 2-3 innings a week rather than 6-12 innings. Instead, in the past week we see the starters pitching 56% of the innings and posting an ERA nearly 1.5 runs higher. So, they’re failing at both ends of the ideal spectrum.
The aforementioned Hill is only expected to go five innings per start. But they’re supposed to be five really strong innings. If Hill, or any other starter, goes five innings and only gives up a run, that’s one thing. But you can see by the SP ERA of 5.76 in the past six games – that’s not what the Mets are getting from their starters.
Obviously, not having Jacob deGrom hurts. And with both Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker struggling recently – only once in their last 15 combined starts have they gone at least six innings – you can see why things have been so shaky. It’s been said that one of the definitions of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results. So, what can the Mets do here?
In an earlier post, we talked about the need to think both short-term and long-term at the same time. You always want to win today’s game. But sometimes you need to surrender a game to have a better shot of winning more games in the future. Last century, you would see teams leaving in a pitcher who clearly didn’t have it that day to save the rest of the pen. There was even a term for it – taking one for the team.
Now that Carlos Carrasco is back, and hopefully at the point where we can hope for six-inning starts from him, it’s time to be proactive with handling Stroman and Walker. It seems to me that the smart thing to do would be to start with Walker and give him a break. The Mets are not in a position to give him a stint on the injured list. But my belief is that they should skip his next two turns in the rotation and have him pitch a couple of times out of the bullpen, instead.
The last thing that anyone should want to see is TBA or a bullpen game from the Mets. But this really seems like a time to take one step back so you can take two steps forward. In four games since the All-Star break, Walker has a 12.00 ERA in 15 IP. That’s not many more innings and it’s a lot worse in terms of runs allowed than you would get from a bullpen game. Additionally, Tom Seaver made six bullpen appearances for the Mets so there’s no reason to think it’s unfathomable that Walker could make two.
Luis Rojas is supposed to be the great communicator. Have him tell Walker this is not a demotion but rather a breather so that he can return to being the guy he was in the first half of the year, when he had a 2.50 ERA. And once Walker has his brief bullpen stay, the Mets can determine if Stroman could use one, as well.
The idea seems to be to hold on until September, when deGrom returns and Carrasco is 100% stretched out. It would be nice to have first-half Walker and Stroman along with those two. No one sitting on their couch or in their home office really knows what the solution is for Walker and Stroman. Maybe it’s having them throw inside more or to change up their pitch sequence or any of a dozen other potential alterations.
Just do something besides handing them the ball every fifth day and telling them to, “Give him some low smoke and we’ll go and pound some Budweiser.”
Another way to spare the bullpen is to match two pitchers who can only give you four innings of solid pitching. Perhaps the Mets could start Carrasco for the first four innings and then bring in Hill for the next four. They could also bring in Trevor Williams and couple him with…well that’s the question, isn’t it? Lugo wanted to be a starter, perhaps he would be an option. They could just use three or four relievers until some of the injured return. Back when Pedro Martinez could only go four or five innings, I started wondering why the Mets didn’t pair him with another pitcher who was only effective for four innings (I forget his name). It just seems to make sense.
I like your idea of resting pitchers, Brian. Who takes one for the team, though?
Not sure it would be any one person who would take one for the team. It’s the collective known as the pen.
Your quoting Joe Schultz made me smile.
Stroman, who didn’t pitch last year, and Walker, who’s thrown more innings than in the past 3 seasons combined, both look gassed. Had the front office done the right thing and brought in Gibson, Gray, Kelly, or even Davies, we could have let those guys skip a start or move to a six-man rotation for a while. Instead, we’re running on fumes and watching first place slip away.