There’s a player on the Mets who in his last 105 PA has a .216 AVG with 6 HR and a 26.7 K%. That sounds a lot like Javier Baez, who seemingly either hits a HR or strikes out. But Baez has only 37 PA with the Mets. No, this “clout or an out” player is Jonathan Villar. But no one thinks about Villar the way they do Baez. The former is viewed as a gritty guy who does whatever it takes to win. The latter is viewed as a one-dimensional offensive player who we gave up too much for at the deadline.
The Mets signed Villar to be a bench piece but a never-ending barrage of injuries has given him starter minutes this season. In the heart of his career, when he was established in the majors and playing every day from 2016-2019, Villar had a 101 OPS+ in 2,344 PA. This year with the Mets, Villar has a 99 OPS+ in 313 PA. He’s essentially performing exactly how you would expect given his history and playing time this year.
Yet, somehow, he’s viewed as this indispensable player. Last year Villar put up a .593 OPS in 207 PA. He wasn’t good at the start of the year with the Marlins and then was terrible once he was traded to the Blue Jays. It’s probably safe to say that Villar has bounced back from last year’s disappointing season and we can view him as a league-average hitter again. Now, he’s not the high-BABIP, great speed guy he was in 2015. Now, he depends on power. And that’s okay. But we have to view him for what he is.
Right now, Villar is playing shortstop because of the injuries to Baez, Luis Guillorme and Francisco Lindor. But hopefully one of those guys can come back and move Villar where he deserves to be on this team – the bench. But no doubt you’ll hear people saying that once the real shortstops return, that the Mets should play Villar at other positions to keep his bat in the lineup. You know, because he’s so indispensable.
Currently the Mets are playing Jeff McNeil and second base and J.D. Davis at third, the two other spots where Villar has significant MLB experience. There are people out there who think 2021 Villar is a better option than either 2021 Davis or 2021 McNeil. And that’s just crazy. Here are the lifetime and season-long production for all three players, along with what they’ve done here recently:
Villar – 95 lifetime OPS+, 99 this year and a .692 OPS in his last 105 PA
Davis – 118 lifetime OPS+, 146 this year and a .909 OPS in his last 108 PA
McNeil – 132 lifetime OPS+, 107 this year and an .895 OPS in his last 115 PA
Villar comes in last place regardless if we look at lifetime production or 2021 production or last 100 PA production.
Davis’ output is being aided by what he did earlier in the year. But even if we just look at what he’s done since being activated from the IL the second time, he’s still better than Villar. Since 7/16, Davis has a .757 OPS. And while Villar is likely a better defensive player at 3B – did you see the play that Davis made at third yesterday? He knocked down a smash that looked like a sure double off the bat, one that would have scored the runner at second base, and recovered in time to record the out at first. One play doesn’t mean all that much, other than to suggest that Davis isn’t a complete zero at the position. You want to bring on Villar as a defensive sub? OK, fine. At least until two of the three injured SS return. Then one of those guys should be the defensive replacement.
McNeil’s recent output may have caught you off guard. Most people remember the horrible start he got off to here in 2021. But what most people don’t recognize is that McNeil was already coming out of it before he went on the IL in mid-May. And while he got off to a slow start once he was first activated in mid-June, he’s been the McNeil of old since the beginning of July – hitting for average, drawing walks and showing some pop. Now, it would be better if he pulled the ball and hit for more power, but it’s tough complaining about the numbers he’s produced lately, especially since he’s not at 100% here with his hamstring.
The easy thing to do once one of the shortstops returns is to make him a starter – regardless of which one of the three return – and move Villar to the bench. But what happens when two of them return? Let’s say it’s Baez and Lindor. We know Lindor is going to play short. But what do you do with Baez? My guess is they move Davis to the bench. And it’s hard to view that as a good move. Yes, Baez is an All-Star with a great defensive rep and is one of the leaders in HR in the majors. But Davis is still the better play.
In their last three years, here are their offensive numbers:
Baez – 1,194 PA, 101 OPS+
Davis – 802 PA, 131 OPS+
There’s more to the game than just offense and Baez holds a huge edge defensively. But right now, what the Mets need is offense, Wednesday’s output against a Washington team that resembled a Triple-A squad aside. It’s difficult to ignore Davis’ 30-point OPS+ edge. And it’s not like Baez got off to a slow start and is killing it here lately. With the Mets, Baez has a .559 OPS.
Finally, let’s take a moment to talk about Guillorme, who picked the wrong year to have multiple IL stints. In a season where everyone is getting hurt, he had a path to regular playing time that he just hasn’t been able to take advantage. But when healthy, Guillorme has put up a 112 OPS+ in 139 PA this season. And if you add that to what he did in 2020, Guillorme has a 121 OPS+. Yes, he’s better than Villar, too.
Warm up the spot on the bench for Villar. It will be good to have him in the bench because a better player will be starting.
Villar Pillar Almora, guillorme, Davis, Smith, Conforto are all bench, deep bench, or platoon players.
It’s time to realize the talent pool is not sufficient to actually do anything great. Want proof? This core has accomplished little as a team. They are a .500 +/- team, as the Talking Heads told us, on the road to nowhere.
The second base depth chart for next year should be interesting with Cano thrown into the mix too
I remember being very dubious of Villar when the Mets signed him. I remember some bad ABs against the Mets and numerous poor plays in the field. Suffice to say I’m thrilled that we got the better version of Villar thus far.
I love him on the bench… would even bring him back. He is very versatile and has pop in the bat and doesn’t chase as much as I thought he would. Still, Brian’s research reveals that our lowered standards this season with all the injuries made him seem more than he really was.
I also think Pillar is in a similar light. I thought he was consistently providing quality at bats when no one else was… and yet look at his overall numbers…pretty sad. All that said, the Mets would be looking up at the Nationals even without these two guys this season.
I have been a Guillorme advocate since the preseason. I penciled him in to a platoon with JD at third. I am a little underwhelmed by his lack of power, though. Yes, he’ll hit for average with above average OBP, but a little more gap to gap pop and he is far more productive… still, I want him on the bench as soon as possible… just so versatile.
He may be playing hurt, but Beaz stinks… terrible ABs.
Re-reading the title made me laugh. Theres not a single genuine 3B in that whole list of players. I suppose Davis is the closest, but he aint a en every day MLB 3B for a post season team. bench guy.
After the first game of the doubleheader on 8/12, Davis has a .902 OPS. Teams generally start guys with an OPS that high. And it’s not like this is an outlier. In 2019, Davis had an .895 OPS.
Yeah, he’s a good DH, but he pretty much stinks as a 3B.
Not exactly off-topic, but I could not stand the Baez trade. I was prepared to jump on the bandwagon if he went Yoenis, esp after his first dinger but I think they are a better team without him. I read pundits who want the Mets to sign him, some that think it’s a given, but I hope they let him sign a bloated contract elsewhere.
With all the talk about the great clubhouse chemistry, I would love to know what impact Baez and his chirping have had. It’s hard to imagine him aligned with Alonso, McNeil, Smith, Nimmo, et al. They play the game differently and seem to approach it differently as well.
I dunno – Alonso was certainly chirping at that Nats pitcher yesterday.
My take was that he was reacting to the pitcher staring at him. But, point taken. Regarding the infield situation, another real consideration is that Baty seems to be on an express train to Queens. I can easily see him starting at 3B sometime in 2022. Probably not out of ST, but definitely by mid-season. Alonso, McNeil, Lindor, Baty is a pretty solid infield, IMHO. No room or need for Baez. I don’t know what to do about Cano.
I don’t think Baez helps this team at all, and I hope he never gets a consideration from the front office. We need a solid third baseman defensively and a decent bat… I liked Escobar. I’m sure someone will correct me with stats, but he is a tough out and played steady defense against the Mets.
They also need a solid CF, in order to move Nimmo to LF.
That means solving the Dom Smith problem and the JD Davis problem. Maybe with the DH, both problem are somewhat reduced. But assuming Dom plays a lot of 1B while Alonso DHs, that still leaves JD out. Somebody has to change teams.
Conforto is the other issue, and consensus seems to be bye-bye. I am forced to agree. Test the market, see what’s out there for RF… I gotta believe with Stevie’s money, there is a better solution than Conforto, who is just taking too long to warm up. A very hot September from Michael can mitigate the damage, but maybe not enough.
If the Mets were healthy then starting infield should be 2B McNeil, SS Lindor and 3B JD and the depth chart should be: Baez, Villar, Guillorme. The Mets need offense and JD provides that and Baez can be JD’s late inning defensive replacement. But….. unfortunately this isn’t going to happen .They should leave McNeil at 2B unless Conforto continues to struggle and McNeil could get some AB’s in RF. Unfortunately that is not going to happen either. IMO, Baez is a rental and his purpose was to fill in for the injured Lindor. I hope that they let Baez walk and spend the money elsewhere. That would make the most sense. Great article Brian.