In the first half of the season, if the Mets scored four runs it was almost a guaranteed win. Well, the offense reached that plateau for the third time in their last four games but they lost all of them, this one a 7-5 setback to the Giants in San Francisco Monday night.
The Mets actually had a brief lead, as they scored three runs in the top of the fifth inning to go on top, 3-2. But Miguel Castro gave up a two-run homer to Kris Bryant – wouldn’t he have been a nice trade deadline pickup – in the bottom of the fifth. Then, Trevor May gave up three runs, including two homers and a triple, in the seventh inning.
Jonathan Villar hit a two-run homer to get the Mets within striking distance but they did nothing after that. The loss dropped the Mets to .500 on the season.
Im a believer in the record is what the record is…its a basic fact of reality. Burt we can use other metrics to perhaps get a sense of a team in motion. The Mets are in motion and going down like a rock. It was always a tenuous hold even as June began with a 4 game lead, and series’ against the Braves and Phillies that an any turn could have changed the dynamic. Back then the Mets were sporting 70% + chance of winning the division according to several projection schemes. I couldnt make sense of that.
If you are a believer in all things math for predicting baseball, one things people arent talking much about is the Mets run differential, which has been in negative ground for some time. How a team can be 6 games over 500 and underwater in runs scored should have been ringing the alarm bell. Today the Mets are -27 in run differential, with a pythagorean record of 56-62 (.471 winning percentage). This tells me there is still plenty of room for correction. In many respects what we are witnessing is the team finally getting to “its place” after so long being in disequilibrium. Its my guess the team will be sitting near the pythagorean record after this 13 game run with the dodgers and giants. Its worth noting that the Mets, while stingy giving up runs have scored the third fewest in the MLB, ahead of only the Pirates int he NL, and 173 runs less than the Dodgers.
Deep down this must have been in the equation at the trade deadline – this team was not heading anywhere big playing upside down.
The Cohen-Lindor relationship might have swayed the Mets brass in going for Baez over Bryant. But also Davis is one of our best batters at 3B and they probably figured that Smith and Conforto should take up most of the playing time in LF and CF, so they went with Baez over Bryant.
In truth, neither Conforto nor Smith deserve to be playing much. and McNeil is having a mediocre year, as well.
Clearly Bryant is a better player than Baez. Baez has flash and dash, but he is not a central figure on a team… appears just the opposite, which maybe the Cubs came to realize. Far too many bad At Bats.
The Lindor situation might define the Mets for a decade. Unless he returns to elite form, and that is highly doubtful, the Mets are stuck with an expensive medium-level player who commands too much undeserved respect. But that does not preclude them building a decent team around him… they just need another game-changing player or two in the lineup.
JD is an offensive plus, a defensive minus… can be worked around next season with the DH. Dom’s power is down, which is hugely concerning… send him somewhere he can play 1B, hit 6th, and flourish in a minor role. McNeil has become very mediocre… too bad. Package him up and get a player they really need in a position they really need to cover. If he blossoms elsewhere, good for him.
Nimmo is a keeper. Conforto probably isn’t.
Wobbit you are spot on. Our primary free agent target should be Bryant. Plus, maybe one if the heralded shortstop free agents could move to third. Just not Baez.
Need to start theoretically piecing the rotation together now. Jake, Walker plus who ? Peterson and McGill get shots, bit we need another workhorse. Probably Syndergaard on a QO. We still need more pitching.
Davis would make a very nice DH. I do believe Dom will be a goner. You know what team loves players like Dom? The Rays. They have a very deep farm system.
We also need a closer.