Examining the Mets’ 2021 offense by month

In the last seven games, the Mets have gone 3-4 and for once, we can’t blame the offense for why the club didn’t earn more wins. In that span, eight players have amassed at least 21 PA and four of them have an OPS of .996 or greater. This is perhaps a bit better but along the lines of what you would expect. Generally, you would expect in a shorter-term span for a few guys to be really hot, a few guys to be really cold and a few guys to be in the middle. Or at least that’s my expectation. And it feels to me that the Mets haven’t had that for the most part this season from their hitters.

My theory is that the Mets have never had 3-4 players hot at the same time for an extended stretch. Since Baseball-Reference gives stat breakdowns by month – let’s use that for our definition of an extended stretch. And we’ll use a .900 OPS or greater as our definition of hot, .700-.899 in the middle and sub-.700 for cold. And we’ll look at the top eight hitters in PA each month to see if my theory is right.

April
Hot – J.D. Davis (1.120), Brandon Nimmo (.921)
Middle – Pete Alonso (.815)
Cold – Michael Conforto (.667), Jeff McNeil (.636), James McCann (.558), Dominic Smith (.549), Francisco Lindor (.542)

So far, so good – for the theory, not the team’s offense.

May
Hot – Nobody
Middle – Kevin Pillar (.889), Alonso (.764), Villar (.754), Conforto (.726), Smith (.706)
Cold – Jose Peraza (.699), Lindor (.637), McCann (.611)

The two hot bats from April were on the IL and no one stepped up to take their place

June
Hot – Nobody
Middle – Alonso (.861), McCann (.841), Villar (.785), Lindor (.765), Billy McKinney (.747), Smith (.731)
Cold – Pillar (.671), Luis Guillorme (.671)

While no one was hot, at least McCann and Lindor got out of the bottom category.

July
Hot – McNeil (.912)
Middle – Alonso (.880), Smith (.823), Nimmo (.813), Guillorme (.810), Villar (.708), McCann (.700)
Cold – Conforto (.645)

For the first time, there were not more cold bats than hot ones.

August (partial)
Hot – Conforto (.929)
Middle – Villar (.893), Davis (.891), Alonso (.727)
Cold – Nimmo (.682), Smith (.529), McNeil (.511), McCann (.443)

At the beginning of the piece, we see that there were four Mets’ hitters with a .996 or better OPS in the last week. Extending it out to just 15 games and we see the same year-long pattern. And, unlike May-June-July, so far here in August, there are more guys in the “Cold” section than in the other two categories.

Let’s look at hot players for our current opponent, the Giants, the team with the best record in the NL:

April – Posey 1.123, Longoria .949
May – Crawford 1.045, Duggar .941, Posey .905
June – Duggar .985, Belt .980, Posey .917
July – Crawford 1,144, Ruf 1.069, Wade Jr. 1.024, Estrada .934
August – Dickerson 1.167, Posey 1.011, Crawford .960, Bryant .948

And Belt, who is one plate appearance shy of qualifying for August, has a 1.004 OPS.

For total “Hot” players for a calendar month, the Giants have 16 players while the Mets have four. And that doesn’t even tell the full story. Let’s break down these hot players even further:

OPS 1.000 or greater
Giants – 7
Mets – 1

OPS .950-.999
Giants – 3
Mets – 0

Not only do they hold a huge advantage, that advantage lies mostly in the higher end of these hot streaks. And the only Met to crack this high end was Davis in April, when he had all of 45 PA.

At this point, we’re left hoping for a repeat of 2016. That year, the Mets had terrible results with RISP through the first 4.5-5 months of the season. Then, in September, they had one of the best marks in the category and rode that to the playoffs, where they fell to the Giants. Maybe Lindor comes back and everyone hits in September.

Yep, it’s time to “grasp and reach for a leg of hope.”