The Mets have to consider Loup for next season, but at what cost?

As poor as the New York Mets offense has performed lately, there is also room to blame their performance on the mound. Each month of the season, their ERA has risen as the injury bug has bit fiercely. As Jacob deGrom looks to be heading to the shelf for the rest of the season, it is clear that the staff has pulled a complete 180. But there has been plenty of bad news out there about the team, and there has been even more written about the poor performance of the pitching staff. There has been one bright spot throughout the season, and whether it be in the normal role of reliever or getting the occasional opener call, he always finishes the day with a Busch Light.

Aaron Loup signed with the Mets on January 30 for one-year, with a salary of $3 million. Outside of Taijuan Walker, Loup has been one of the best free agents signings for the Mets from this past offseason. Loup was brought in to help shut down lefties late in games, and all he’s done is rack up the sixth-best WAR on the team. After allowing a low OPS of .581 last season against lefties, Loup has upped his game this season to an even lower mark of .379. Certainly worthy of a post-game Busch Light.

Loup’s pitching performance goes much further than the ridiculous opponent OPS he’s allowed this season. Over the course of June, July, and August this season, Loup has only allowed one earned run. For a team that has been yearning for a player to step up in the clutch, Loup has consistently answered the bell. With that in mind and the Mets falling more and more out of contention each day, the Mets need to think about who they’ll be bringing back next season. With the way Loup has performed, he should be on that list. But how much will he cost?

As it sits right now, Loup is tied for the 54th highest salary amongst relief pitchers. Based off of his performance this season, he should expect to rise on that list. This past offseason, according to Fangraphs, teams spent approximately $9.1 million per every one WAR point. Loup has racked up a 1.4 season to this point, so the Mets have gotten extreme value on him. What does that mean for next season, when he is looking for a new contract and the Mets are looking to extend him?

Fangraphs advises implementing a WAR age curve of -.2 for every player after their age 30 season when looking at the value of their WAR. 34-year old Aaron Loup would then enter contract negotiations with an adjusted WAR of 1.2 if the season ended today, and he’d be seeking somewhere in the range of $7.6 million in annual value. While that may seem like a lot to spend on a reliever, Loup has proven during this rollercoaster year that he is ready for that kind of pay day.

In addition to some of the other stats he has posted this season, some of his most impressive stats revolve around who he is facing on the mound on a particular day. Against the rest of the NL East this season, the Mets as a team have struggled to a 25-27 record. Loup however has been strong against the NL East this season, allowing three earned runs and a low ERA of 1.39. The Mets should hold onto players like Loup, who have proven to be able to play well against their NL East counterparts.

Although the season isn’t over just yet, there is a growing feeling that things need to change next season in Queens. Something that shouldn’t change next season however is the presence of Aaron Loup. Loup was brought in this season to shut down lefties, and he has gone above and beyond his job description. He has performed so well this season that he has proven he deserves a pay raise, whether it be from the Mets or another team. Loup has moved around a lot the past four seasons in four different cities. Being that playing for a team consistently year after year is rare now for relievers like Loup, he may be enticed to come back. If he’s going to come back next season however, the Mets better be prepared to offer him at least $7 million in annual salary, or at least another year in contract length. An ideal deal for both sides could sit at two years for $11 million dollars. And for the lefty-dominance, shut down abilities in division, and passion for Busch Light, I’d say that’s a pretty fair deal.

Loup has a 1.12 ERA this season
His opponent’s lefty OPS is .379
Loup has held the other NL East teams to 3 earned runs