Among starting pitchers, the Mets are fourth in the National League in ERA (3.67), third in WHIP (1.128) and 13th in Wins (27). All arguments about how wins don’t matter for SP aside, it’s tough to balance the first two numbers with the last one. Of course, there are plenty of contributing factors, most notably the disappointing contribution for the offense. There’s also at least nine starts by openers, who couldn’t possibly get a win, the manager’s preference for early hooks for his starter and a 2-13 record from depth starters/guys not in the rotation when the season started.
The look at the overall numbers for Mets’ starters came about due to a question that occurred to me: Has Rich Hill been an asset for the club? When the Mets traded for him, it was clear what they were getting. The expectation was that he’d give you 4-6 innings pitched each time out, pitch well in that time frame and give you a chance to win.
If we throw out his relief appearance, where he volunteered to take one for the team and allowed 3 ER in 3 IP, Hill has the following numbers: 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP.
The Mets are 2-4 in Hill’s six starts for the club. They won his first two starts but Hill didn’t pitch particularly well, as he gave 10 IP, allowed 7 ER and opposing hitters had a .913 OPS against him. Those two outings came in July. When the calendar turned to August and the team turned into pumpkins, Hill was 0-4. But Hill didn’t pitch that bad. He notched 18.2 IP and allowed 8 ER for a 3.86 ERA. Before coming to the Mets, Hill had a 3.87 ERA in 95.1 IP for the Rays.
What Hill’s done in August, despite the Mets’ 0-4 mark in games he started, is pretty much exactly what the club should have expected from him. With that being said, let’s look at his line from all six starts for the Mets:
7/25 – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
7/31 – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 Ks
8/5 –– 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks
8/16 – 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 Ks
8/21 – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 Ks
8/27 – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 Ks
In his first start with the Mets, Hill delivered five shutout innings and was sent back out for the sixth. The first three batters each reached base – on a HBP, single and walk – and Luis Rojas brought in Seth Lugo with the bases loaded. Lugo allowed all three inherited runners to score. Rojas hasn’t asked Hill to pitch in the sixth since.
The goal should be a 5 IP start, with two ER or fewer. A 5/3 start every now and then would be acceptable, especially with how things turned out in his first start. So, looking at his game log, Hill has given the Mets what they needed in four of his six appearances. The exceptions being the 7/31 outing, where he allowed 4 ER, and the 8/16 game, where he was lifted after 3.2 IP.
When the Mets traded for Hill, they were in a spot where they were using two TBA pitchers per turn thru the rotation. With openers only giving them one or two innings, and the Jerad Eickhoffs of the club getting pounded, getting five solid innings seemed like a fairly big upgrade, if not exactly something that would have been welcomed at the beginning of the season.
For me, the early returns on Hill have been okay. His final grade will depend a lot upon what he does down the stretch. Hopefully Hill can give the Mets a few more of those 5 IP starts where he only allows one or two runs. Then, ideally, he moves to the bullpen once Jacob deGrom returns, giving the team another lefty reliever plus a pitcher who could give you multiple innings if needed.
I mean who doesnt like watching a 68 mph looping curve that looks like slow-pitch softball? The Mets world doesnt turn on Rich Hill, but if hes gonna consistently get 15 outs, allow 5 hits, and < 3 ER per game Ill take him for a #5 starter.
The issues come with the realization that hes leaving 12 outs on the table every game, which as we all know is 3-4 relievers that get burned. Add that to the other starters only throwing 18 outs per game, and you have a bull pen that is a dumpster fire.
Yes, Hill’s 5 innings of decent work are fine. As ChrisF notes, the issue is with the remaining 12 outs. There should absolutely be a multi-inning guy behind him, for argument’s sake let’s say Lugo. That avoids the guaranteed usage of 3-4 guys. And, if you can separate the “5 inning starters”, say Megill is the other, then the multi-inning piggy back guy could be first man up for each instance. While there are no guarantees in any start, ordering the staff by staggering the short stint guys instead of best to worst could yield better bullpen results and less hanging arms. Familia frustrates most of us, but days like yesterday he was off but likely taking the ball as a good team player despite his arm fatigue.
Rich Hill would be more valuable if Rojas would let him pitch further into the game when he is pitching good. If Rojas managed the game that is in front of him, instead of pre-planned game with no deviation, then all the starting pitchers would be more valuable. When Hill pitched well in a game for the Rays, he pitched further than the 5th inning. Rojas early hooks are detrimental .
As long as he remains a #5 then it was a good acquisition. When injuries force him or others higher in the rotation order is where their flaws are exposed. I see them resigning the old man as rotation insurance for next season with questions about Jake and Thor still on the table. And how Lugo can be used is baffling. If he can’t go two days in a row with reliability or if you can’t throw him in for the 4 innings that Hill leaves unfinished, then groom him for the rotation for next season. That is reportedly what he wants. The stats on their starters are encouraging and so highlights the team’s inability at the plate, where just some “average” seasons by 3-4 players would likely have seen the team move ahead of the division and not sink to where they are now. Still happy with year one of the transformation. Hill and Carrasco, if healthy, can be two strong 2022 starters in the last two spots. Team that with a healthy Jake, Thor and the surprising Megill and we should be in most games we play.
Hill did his job… exactly what we expected. Yes, Rojas tends to mismanage the starters. But this should be it for Hill. Hopefully we can land a better alternative for ’22. He looks to me like a guy who wants to retire.
I agree with the consensus here. The Mets got exactly what they should have expected when they acquired Hill. In the grand scheme of things, with all the other problems with this club (real or overblown), it was a solid pickup.