Mets need to emulate Dodgers’ lineup the last month of the season

Looking at the Dodgers’ box score and you’ll see six of their eight starting position players with an OPS of .800 or greater. By contrast, the Mets have just two. They could/should have three but J.D. Davis is out of the lineup these days at least as much as he’s in, which seems odd for a team struggling to find offense. In that quest for offense, the Mets will need some combination of Javier Baez, Michael Conforto and Francisco Lindor to have big Septembers. Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith could be in that grouping, too, but who knows how much playing time they’ll get in the final 30 games.

We saw yesterday the electricity Baez can bring to the team. But it’s tough to be a catalyst when you’re batting .210 and striking out 32.4% of the time. But in addition to his daring baserunning, Baez can bring a much-needed power bat to the lineup. While with the Cubs earlier this season, Baez put up a .275/.310/600 line over 88 PA. In that span, 11 of his 22 hits went for extra-bases, including seven homers. He also had a shorter hot streak right before being traded to the Mets, with a .939 OPS in 68 PA.

Lindor hasn’t really had a hot streak with the Mets. But he was being the type of hitter we should have expected over an extended stretch before winding up on the IL. Before suffering an oblique injury, Lindor had an .830 OPS in 166 PA. That may not be the type of streak that makes you sit up and take notice, but given that he’s batting .143 in eight games since returning from a five-week layoff with no rehab games, an .830 OPS would be a welcome addition to the lineup.

Which brings us to Conforto.

Perhaps because we haven’t seen either Baez or Lindor get hot in a Mets’ uniform, it seems like Conforto is the guy the Mets need to see really get untracked down the stretch. He’s certainly capable of it, as he’s had at least one extended stretch of good hitting in each year of his career prior to 2021. Here’s the breakdown of those hot streaks:

2015 – 169 PA, .891 OPS
2016 – 86 PA, 1.118 OPS
2017 – 94 PA, 1.151 OPS
2017 – 145 PA, .943 OPS
2018 – 289 PA, .905 OPS
2019 – 170 PA, .953 OPS
2019 – 213 PA, .894 OPS
2020 – 212 PA, .991 OPS

In all eight of those spans, Conforto had at least a .527 SLG mark. In the first streak in ’17, he posted a .704 SLG mark. It sure would be nice if in his next 90 PA, Conforto hit with that type of power. The Mets’ numbers with RISP won’t be as important if one of their big bats starts producing doubles and homers to score runners from first. A few with multiple guys on base wouldn’t hurt, either.

The thing is, Conforto has already embarked on that streak. Since August 12 – a span that does not include the first game yesterday, which officially counts as an April game – Conforto has a .286/.394/.518 line in 66 PA. He’s already given the Mets a reliable bat to go with Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. And the Mets are 7-12 in that stretch. Of course, the Mets had eight 1-run losses in that span.

Conforto has six streaks in his career where he’s delivered at least an .891 OPS over 145 or more PA. The Mets are going to need him to make it seven down the stretch here in 2021.

If Conforto does that, you can see the Mets putting up a Dodgers-like lineup in the final month of the season. Alonso, Conforto and Nimmo doing the heavy lifting, with Baez, Lindor and Davis/Jonathan Villar being key supplemental pieces.

Of course, the pitching will have to do its part, too. An unexpected day off gives the bullpen a breather and Luis Rojas hopefully can manage not to use his five best relievers in the same game, avoiding situations where multiple guys have pitched three of the past four days. And it’s fun to think about Noah Syndergaard providing another reliable option, one who doesn’t walk guys with his 98-mph heat.

So, it might all come down to the starting pitchers. Is Carlos Carrasco able to be the big starter they need? Can Taijuan Walker revert to his first-half form? Can Marcus Stroman consistently give seven strong innings? Can Rich Hill and Tylor Megill hold the fort until Jacob deGrom returns? Can deGrom approach his earlier 2021 self in the 1-3 games he pitches the rest of the way?

It’s a lot of question marks. But teams that are two games below .500 on September 1 haven’t exactly been killing it all season long. The miserable stretch in August with all of the 1-run losses put the Mets behind the 8-ball. Their path forward is clear. If the hitters revert to form, the starters deliver on what we’ve seen for stretches of 2021 and the RISP numbers approach average, the Mets can execute the bank shot necessary to get around the 8-ball and into the playoffs.