In the first 13 games of July – which included seven games against the Braves, Yankees and Brewers – the Mets as a team posted a .250/.342/.421 line. Compare that to the just-concluded 13-game stretch against the Dodgers and Giants, where the team slashed .217/.292/.317 and went 2-11. The former 13-game stretch saw 33 XBH in 450 PA. The latter span had only 26 XBH in 505 PA. It’s not easy to come to the plate 55 more times and have seven fewer extra-base hits.
Everyone focuses on how poorly the club is doing with RISP. But share some disgust for how the Mets are doing in the power department, too. The Mets are just 12th in the NL in home runs and they rank dead last in both doubles and triples so far this season. Let’s look at the isolated power numbers for the hitters who played the most for the team in both 2020 and 2021:
| Player | 2020 ISO | 2021 ISO |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Smith | .299 | .118 |
| Pete Alonso | .260 | .239 |
| Brandon Nimmo | .204 | .118 |
| Michael Conforto | .193 | .151 |
| J.D. Davis | .142 | .161 |
| Jeff McNeil | .142 | .112 |
Davis is the only one of the six players to have improved upon his slugging numbers from a season ago. So, of course, he’s on the bench trying to get a regular spot in the lineup. Smith is the biggest disappointment in this department. Anecdotally, he hit a homer on a shoulder-high pitch early in the season and he’s been swinging and missing on those high pitches ever since.
While not as big of a disappointment as Smith, it’s been troublesome how Nimmo’s power has evaporated this year, too. But it’s likely that his hand/finger injury has contributed to the power outage. Before landing on the IL, Nimmo had a .169 ISO. Since returning from a two-month absence, Nimmo has just a .090 ISO.
Nimmo has had a fantastic year in getting on base, with a .417 OBP. But when your OBP exceeds your SLG, that’s not a good thing. In recent years, the only Mets players to accomplish that feat have been weak-hitting catchers and middle infielders. Right now, Nimmo is keeping company with Luis Castillo, Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole in the OBP>SLG department.
The hits are falling in for Nimmo so far this year, as he has a .386 BABIP. We’ve come to expect an elevated BABIP from him; however, no one produces a mark in the .380s on a consistent basis. And the simple truth is that Nimmo with power and a career-average BABIP is a better player than the version we have this season.
For his career, Nimmo has a lifetime .348 BABIP. In 2018, he had a .351 BABIP and a 148 wRC+ and in 2020 he had a .326 BABIP and a 148 wRC+. This year, those numbers are .386 and 138, respectively.
OBP is important and the last thing anyone should do is to minimize its role. But, at the same time, power is important, too. If Nimmo all of the sudden started putting up OBPs in the .350s – we all would wonder what was going on with him. He’s also a guy who over the previous three seasons produced a .208 ISO. It’s 90 points below his established norm and yet virtually no one seems to have noticed. It’s an issue.
Yesterday we talked about how a return to previous slugging levels for Conforto would be a big boost to the offense. And Nimmo’s power can also play a role. While Nimmo has continued to be a major asset with his ability to get on-base, there’s something to be said for delivering the big hit himself. It was an important thing in the Tuesday comeback against the Marlins when Nimmo hit the two-run homer. Hopefully, we’ll see more of that power from him, and others, in September.
I became aware of Nimmo’s power outage shortly after his return from the IL. True, he already underperformed in that area this season before his injury, but he was always good for an occasional dinger in previous seasons. I went to three games in Colorado back in 2019 and he bombed away the whole series (maybe he likes playing closer to home?).
There were more than a few times this year when a long ball from Nimmo would have completely changed the game, and yet there were none, and not even any gappers. I assumed the power would return when all his physical issues were resolved, and maybe it still will.
All that said, Nimmo is a much better hitter this year. Far fewer bad ABs, and far fewer strikeouts. He’s figured something out about hitting LHers, and I believe he should only get better. Nimmo’s a keeper, and let’s assume his slug numbers will rebound… hope he gets to play a corner OF next year and allows him (more comfortable) to get even better offensively.