The Mets have four big-name players who are on the verge of free agency. You can make cases for retaining all of them but the odds of all four players being in Queens next year seem very low indeed. So, how would you prioritize these four in terms of potential importance to the 2022 Mets? There’s no perfect answer to that question. Instead, let’s start with what we do know. Here are the fWAR totals for each of our four players for each year they’ve been in the majors.
| Player | ’14 | ’15 | ’16 | ’17 | ’18 | ’19 | ’20 | ’21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | (-0.8) | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | (0.1) | 3.6 |
| Michael Conforto | DNP | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Marcus Stroman | 3.4 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 3.9 | DNP | 3.4 |
| Noah Syndergaard | DNP | 2.9 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | DNP | 0.0 |
None of these players have been models of consistency, which is a big reason why it’s so hard to determine which guy is most likely to have a big 2022 and beyond. Baez is coming off the best year but he’s also the only guy to turn in a season with negative production and he’s done that twice. Conforto had the best 2020 but his two biggest years came in shortened seasons and injuries always seem to be an issue. Stroman quieted the critics who said he was an unknown after sitting out the Covid year yet people still doubt him because he’s not overpowering. Syndergaard had the best season of anyone in the group but it came five years ago and he’s essentially missed the past two seasons with injuries.
Let’s look at each of the players individually, with their pros and cons:
Baez
Pros – Was terrific after being acquired in a deadline deal. In addition to being a productive middle-of-the-order hitter, Baez brings speed and defense, two things not in great supply otherwise on the team. His defense may be overhyped but he’s still an electric player.
Cons – There are still plenty of people who question if he can maintain his improved plate discipline over an entire season. The bad optics of Thumbgate still linger. And perhaps most importantly, a return to 2018-2020 Jeff McNeil might make Baez the most replaceable of the team’s free agents.
Conforto
Pros – While the overall numbers are disappointing, Conforto returned to 2018-19 form the last two months of the season. Over those two years, Conforto averaged a 3.4 fWAR and those guys just don’t grow on trees. Conforto is capable of carrying a team when he’s hot. He’s not a rah-rah guy but most people consider him a leader on the team.
Cons – Stop me if you’ve heard this one before but Conforto missed time with an injury in 2021. Also, after putting up an .870 OPS versus LHP in 2020, Conforto crashed to earth with a .582 mark last season. Lifetime, he has a .695 OPS against southpaws. It’s not quite platoon territory yet not exactly what you want to see from a $25 million guy, either.
Stroman
Pros – You want SP to give you quality innings and Stroman finished 16th in the NL in IP and 8th in ERA. And he might have finished even higher in innings if not for some debatable early removals from some games. Also, while the above chart makes it seem like Stroman has been inconsistent, in the five years where he’s made at least 20 starts, Stroman has delivered an fWAR between 3.3 and 3.9 each season.
Cons – Doesn’t have the ceiling that the others on this list have.
Synderaard
Pros – When healthy he’s a power pitcher with good command who keeps the ball in the park. Oh, and he gets lots of grounders, too. Essentially, he’s everything you want in a pitcher.
Cons – There’s a big question on how he’ll recover after missing almost all of the last two seasons, especially if he can’t throw breaking balls. Assuming he returns to 2018-19 form, can he put away hitters and keep them from running wild should they actually reach base?
*****
To me, re-signing Stroman is the top priority among the team’s four big free agents. We watched prime Syndergaard and while that pitcher was considerably better than Stroman, it’s likely we’ll never see that guy again. There’s a bias against short RHP and it seems like people are holding that against Stroman. Well, either that or something not so benign.
Regardless, Stroman is a clear SP2, something the Mets desperately need. What’s that – you don’t believe he’s an SP2? Here’s what the #16 pitcher, the top of the SP2 pitchers, has produced in fWAR the past five full seasons in the NL:
2021 – 3.4
2019 – 3.3
2018 – 2.4
2017 – 2.8
2016 – 2.9
Shoot, looking at this, SP2 may be selling him … short. Stroman has five seasons where he’s been between a 3.3 and 3.9 fWAR. If you didn’t watch him pitch, if you didn’t know that he was short or loud mouthed or whatever turns you off about him – you’d say, “Hey this guy looks pretty good!”
My opinion is that the Mets should be willing to pay him a contract that’s market rate, something maybe just a cut below what Zack Wheeler received. Something in the ballpark of 4/$84, although it may take a fifth year to get him signed.
Additionally, in my opinion, the Mets should be willing to pay a market rate for Baez, too. But he may want to sign somewhere he can play SS or some team might decide he’s the guy for which you break the bank. If so, that’s okay. The Mets don’t necessarily need a 2B and can look for an impact bat at 3B or the OF, instead.
If Conforto is set on getting the most dollars possible, he won’t be on the Mets next year. Or at least he shouldn’t. That being said, there would be no gnashed teeth from me if he accepted the QO. My belief is that Conforto’s true-talent level is likely in the 3.0 fWAR range and that would be a good return for $18.4 million. It seems likely that he signs a multi-year deal elsewhere or takes a one-year deal with the Mets.
With his recent injury history, there’s no way the Mets should offer the QO to Syndergaard. My preference is to pay market rate for healthy stars rather than overpay for guys who were good 3-5 years ago. Syndergaard seems to want to remain a Met. There should be a multi-year deal that works for both parties rather than the QO which works only for Syndergaard.
Good morning Brian & fellow bloggers…… I am basically in line with this article and the reasons so well put together. Stroman (and getting quality SP in general) should be the goal for 2022. I personally don’t think the Mets will offer him enough to stay though. If however, the Mets gamble and pencil McNeil for a bounce back year for 2B (rather then pay stupid $$ for Baez), then I would offer whatever it took to keep Stroman.
And while I’m not a Conforto fan; and as long as he’s willing to gamble on himself and take an incentive laden deal with the Mets, then yes on him and hope for a bounce back year.
I totally concur regarding Syndegaard and not giving him the QO.
I do hope the Mets keep Hill and Loup though.
Brian, you have sum up nicely your conclusions are solid. The most need for the Mets in a #2 starter and Stroman fits the bill. Conforto is a dilemma. The consensus is that he wants at multi year contract so the Mets should offer him a QO. If he turns it down then pivot to Bryant for RF because there would be a need for a rightfielder. If Conforto accepts then pivot to Baez.
That leaves Syndergaard to deal with. If Conforto accepts then there won’t any money for Syndergaard. The consensus is Syndergaard will take the QO. The Mets shouldn’t do that but instead offer him 13-14M (only if Conforto declines) for one year to reestablish himself. If he takes the money then the Mets trade Walker or Carrasco .
The Mets have $80m to play with to remain under $250m payroll.
Stroham 22M + Conforto 19M + Baez 25M leaves 14M leftover.
Stroham 22M + Bryant 30M + Syndergaard 14M leaves 14M leftover.
Let Conforto walk… Boras will price him too high… his time is up in Queens. I wish him well.
Offer Stroman 3 yrs for 55… if he walks (he will), we replace him. He can only go downhill. I believe Walker will be better for longer.
Offer Syndergaard 2 years/25mil. He should take it. Prove himself, cash in later. If he walks, we replace him.
Baez. Best of the group. Most impact on a season. Offer 3 yrs-75 M. If he walks, we live without him.
I guess what I am saying, I’m not afraid to lose anyone. We know the best Stroman can do, we’ve already seen it. We know what Baez can do, but the slight chance that he can produce that level is not worth the financial risk.
Despite the lack of run production, the pitchers are the priority. Stroman knows what he is doing, and he is a rarity in that he gets outs without maximum effort on every pitch. He is an athlete, he is in his prime, he is from the area, he has delivered quality in a Met uniform. Retaining him makes a ton of sense.
With this ownership, targeting a total payroll figure is not a focal point. By any empirical measure, Syndergaard does not merit $18.4 MM. But, the Mets need pitching, he has high end upside, albeit less likely, I’d given him the QO offer…an overpay of $6-$7 million is not a factor for Uncle Stevie.
I give Conforto the QO…if he takes it, fine, if not, they get a pick. I would not offer Conforto a muli-year deal at this point.
Baez is intriguing I would not rush unless the commitment is not massive. A quick strike at say 5/$125 MM, sure, but he turned down a lot more from the Cubs. I’d just like to see a commitment to him, or any big FA signing, be a clear part of an overall plan, not just throwing money at him because the offense stinks and he had a good 6 weeks in Flushing.
I guess Loup just missed the cut…he is quite important as well…dealing with these 4 is just the beginning…lots more work to be done.
Conforto, make QO, expect nothing. (Sign Castellanos)
Baez, lets get a 3-4 yr market+Queens hazard pay deal done
Stroman, lets get a 3-4 yr market+Queens hazard pay deal done
Syndergaard, I make a 3 year 36-39M$ offer, take it or leave it.
I’m more on T.J.‘s line of thought than anyone else’s. The doctors advised Syndergaard against throwing breaking balls and sliders this year, but not the case going forward. Every year Thor was healthy, he was better than anyone here. Even in 2017, that 1.4 fWAR was after just five games. JdG had 4.9 after 15 games this year, so that 1.4 is in line with the best. But, he had TJ. Who hasn’t? If I ran a big budget club, say Los Dodgers, and Syndergaard was available, $18.4 for one year is no biggie. Very surprised how small market Mets fans are trained to think.
Stroman is nice and not having a big fastball means he won’t lose it. A four year deal at $22 makes sense.
Baez is very tough. A good player at a position they don’t need… I’d see if he was interested in playing third base, then when the kids come up, switch to second. At that point, I can take McNeil from second and move him around like Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor. Baez playing third should be the key. If he refuses, well, I would go higher AAV, three years.
So the hard part is whether you think with your head or your heart. If you think with your heart then all four should be signed and returned to our roster. If you think with your head that might not be so. Baez brings an excitement factor that is lacking across our lineup. Stroman played the one year perfectly and should be in high demand. Since it’s only money we should not be outbid on either of them. What we need to show is that we continue to move forward and are serious about being a team that can compete each year. After all, these players really have tons of money already and what they want is the ring. If we had a few more quality players on our roster than signing Conforto would be an easier pill to swallow, but we keep insisting that he be the star and perhaps, when healthy, that’s all we will get. As for Thor, a two year deal at $15 million total is fair but you know there will be other teams who will bank on what has become a common recovery fromTJ surgery and will over pay. Let’s see how much he really wants to stay with the Mets who have paid him plenty these past two seasons and got nothing in return.
So there is clearly a case for each to be signed and each to pass on. But let’s not delude ourselves that McNeil and Smith will return to their prior hitting form and fail to make appropriate moves to improve this team with a bonafide 3B and and another quality starter. Almost hoped the Braves had won last night just so we could get going on the off-season and make some moves before Dec 2 when they say there will be a shutdown due to the expiring agreement.
As for the series, hard to pick between the cheating Astros and the scum sucking Braves.
Of the four, I’d prioritize Stroman. He’s been better than solid most of his career, and has mostly been consistent. I’d actually be ok with QOs to both Syndergaard and Conforto, basically for the reason’s TJ stated. As for Baez, I think that we would regret any type of long term deal for him. I expect that he will get paid between $25 – $30M and likely get 6 or more years. Even at 5 years, I would bet that at least one or two of those years could end up being less than 2 WAR years. He had a really good stretch for the Mets, but he put that together after they were realistically eliminated from the division and wild card race. I think he’s going to get a big contract from someone expecting his “newfound plate discipline” to stick for a whole year, which I think is foolish.
I think we all better get used to the likelihood that the Mets will mostly tread water this next year, largely put the same team on the field, and will get similar results.
I mean, who’s gonna engineer the trades that are needed to sort out the 3B, LF, RF, 2B issues? What about Dom Smith and JD Davis?
Ideally we sign a high-caliber defensive CF with speed, move Nimmo to LF. We sign a RF to replace Conforto. We figure out 3B with a FA. Even those three moves will take vision and chutzpah… and who’s gonna do it?
No, next season we’ll see McNeil and Smith back in the lineup, with JD stuck in limbo… again. Welcome to nowhere…
I am expecting the opposite from Steve Cohen—meaning spending $$$$, after hiring a GM. Maybe a trade or two (involving Davis and/or Smith), but mainly going for “broke” on 3B (Bryant), RF (Schwarber or Rosario or Soler), CF (maybe Marte) and 2B (Baez).
If deGrom is OK, they need to go for it now while he still is top notch. Stroman should be signed and Carrasco and Walker should be OK again. Thor can be a #5 for now and we still have Megill. Lindor and McCann probably will be better and McNeil can play everywhere off the bench.